Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/1:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Happy Opening Day and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a wholistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

• Kenta Maeda – It’s tough not to like Maeda here against the Milwaukee Brewers, he comes in with a slate low carnage score at 2.5 to go along with a slate low wOBA at 0.175. The Brewers have an implied run total of 4.0 here which is probably a bit higher than you might expect from a pitcher that grades out as a top play, but that’s going to factor in the ballpark. Am Fam Park (aka Miller Park) is one of the better ballparks for batters, so a higher IRT is to be expected here. The Brewers struck out at a 22.7% rate against opposing righties last season which isn’t Earth-shattering but a 24% hard contact percentage against righties in 2020 is incredibly low. He tops Nilly’s Carnage Report, below, today for good reason.

• Yu Darvish – Maeda was more of a mid-range option in relation to salary, so let’s take a look at the highest-priced pitcher on the board over on DraftKings at $10.4k in a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dbacks come in with an implied run total of just 3.4 runs here and is probably going to be a lineup that struggles throughout the season. The thing that keeps me from paying up for Darvish here is the 18% strikeout rate that the Dbacks had against righties in 2020. Yeah, the implied run total is low, but in MLB DFS, strikeouts are king. Don’t get me wrong, Darvish probably has an alright day here, but I think there’s more value at some of these other guys.
• Brad Keller – Let’s save a little salary here and go dumpster diving with Royals starter, Brad Keller. Man do I love me some Keller here, the Rangers are going to strikeout a lot this season, that lineup is uglier than Sloth from the Goonies. It’s a lineup that struck out a slate high 28% against opposing righties in 2020, so if he allows you to pay up for your offensive stack, why not take the chance in tournaments at the very least.

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Toronto Blue Jays (+159) @ New York Yankees (-173)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu (DK – $7.9k; FD – $8.0k)

Yankees – Gerrit Cole  (DK – $10.7k; FD – $11.0k)

Rundown:

These are two really strong pitchers, but that can all go out the window at Yankee stadium with the wind blowing out. I probably wouldn’t be all that thrilled to stack the Jays against Cole here but I think you can make a case for the Yankees. They have an implied run total of 4.3 runs and we know there are some big bats in this lineup. Aaron Judge in particular stands out with a 0.360 ISO and a 0.375 wOBA against lefties last season with guys like DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton batting around him.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I don’t really see a reason to jam in a whole lot against Gerrit Cole, why lose money on Opening Day?

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge

4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu

GPP Note: No issue with a Yankees stack here, it’s a tough matchup against Ryu, but you’ll find a lot of tough matchups today.

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Cleveland Indians (-181) @ Detroit Tigers (+165)

Starting Pitchers:

Indians – Shane Bieber (DK – $10.1k; FD – $11.5k)

Tigers – Matthew Boyd (DK – $7.4k; FD – $7.4k)

Rundown:

Shane Bieber is a guy you’re going to want to get to here if he’s on the slate you’re playing. He had a strikeout rate of 41.1% in 2020 to go along with a perfect 100 DFSA Grade today against the Tigers who come in with an implied total of just 3.2 runs, go get some Bieber. The Indians have a pretty nice matchup here against Boyd who really struggled last season. The Indians have a few certified lefty-mashers as well in Jordan Luplow and Jose Ramirez who had a 0.544 ISO against left-handed pitchers last season, you can stack this team up pretty comfortably given how bad the Tigers bullpen is as well.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow

4-star plays: Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: The bad thing about the Indians stack is how bad the bottom of this order is, but I do like the 1-5 stack here.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Same deal as the Jays above except the Tigers offense is nowhere near the talent of the Jays, just stay away here.

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Minnesota Twins (-105) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-103)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Kenta Maeda (DK – $8.3k; FD – $9.4k)

Brewers  – Brandon Woodruff  (DK – $8.0k; FD – $8.7k)

Rundown:

This is an interesting pitching matchup, I like both of these guys as MLB pitchers and think they have a ton of upside. It’s a tough matchup for Woodruff, as the Twins are one of the better offenses in the AL. With it being Opening Day, we’re going to have a lot of good offenses going up against opposing teams aces, so we’re going to have to dig a bit to find a stack to like, but I do think you can get to the Twins here and take advantage of the home run upside they see in a hitter-friendly park. As much as I want to like the Brewers here, Maeda was great last season at limiting hard contact and this lineup is pretty priced up for its production from last season.

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Ryan Jeffers

GPP Note: It’s not the greatest spot for the Twins but I do think they provide upside due to the park factor at low ownership.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kolten Wong

GPP Note: Pretty much just one-offs here from the Brewers, it may be tough for them to string together good AB’s against Maeda.

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Baltimore Orioles (+148) @ Boston Red Sox (-161)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – John Means (DK – $6.0K; FD – $6.7k)

Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi (DK – $6.3k; FD – $8.1k)

Rundown:

Here is a game we can target some bats in, both Means and Eovaldi are pretty sub-par Opening Day starters. The Red Sox stand out here with an implied run total of 5.1 runs and a pretty solid lineup, particularly the heart of this order. We know JD Martinez is a lefty masher and will have guys like Kike Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe sandwiching him, this is a really solid spot for the Sox. The Orioles are an interesting cheap stack if you’re spending up at pitcher, DJ Stewart in particular grades out really well in projections due to the price tag, but finding guys to stack with him is tough due to how weak this lineup is. They may make out better as a mini-stack to save some salary.

BAL 5-star plays: DJ Stewart

4-star plays: Trey Mancini

GPP Note: Probably more of a mini-stack due to how weak the lineup is as a whole.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: The Red Sox stand out as a full-stack that I’ll have interest in due to the matchup and the implied run total.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+194) @ Chicago Cubs (-212)

Starting Pitchers:

Pirates – Chad Kuhl (DK – $5.2k; $6.3k)

Cubs – Kyle Hendricks (DK – $7.7k; $9.1k)

Rundown:

We normally don’t get an implied run total on Cubs games when they’re at home due to how much the wind factors into offensive production. At the moment, it looks like the wind will be blowing in from left field at around 15 mph, which is pretty substantial and a boost to pitching as a whole. I won’t have much interest in Chad Kuhl, but Kyle Hendricks is interesting. The Pirates might have the worst lineup in the league, but we know Hendricks isn’t exactly known for his strikeout numbers. I do like him on DraftKings however at a discount to that FanDuel price tag. I won’t have a ton of interest in either of these offenses due to the wind, but the obvious lean would be toward the Cubs due to the matchup and the overall better skill-set of the lineup.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Anthony Alford, Gregory Polanco

GPP Note: Really not much I like here at all, more of a fade than anything.

CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Ian Happ

4-star plays: Wilson Contreras, Javier Baez

GPP Note: I would like this spot much more for the Cubs if it weren’t for the wind blowing in, keep an eye on our Weather Station, if the wind changes direction it’s a spot I’ll take advantage of.

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Atlanta Braves (-103) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-105)

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Max Fried (DK – $7.5k; FD – $8.3k)

Phillies – Aaron Nola (DK – $10.1k; FD – $9.2k)

Rundown:

Both these pitchers sit in the middle of our Carnage Report, they’re both really solid pitchers but so are these offenses. The problem I see with stacking the Braves is, not only is Nola a great pitcher, but it’s an expensive stack. If I’m paying up this much for a stack, I’d like a better matchup, not to mention the wind is a factor in this one as well which keeps the Braves implied run total at 3.5 runs. The Phillies come in at 3.5 as well, they do have a few bats that excel against lefties, however. JT Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins both had over a 0.500 OBP against lefties as well as OPS’s over 1.000, so you can make a case to go here with one-offs at the very least.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: I don’t see myself stacking the Braves here due to their collective price tags.

PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins

4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper

GPP Note: One-offs are definitely in play here and I think you can make a case for a mini-stack as well.

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St. Louis Cardinals (+107) @ Cincinnati Reds (-116)

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Jack Flaherty (DK – $8.6k; FD – $8.6k)

Reds – Luis Castillo (DK – $9.2k; FD – $8.9k)

Rundown:

Both Flaherty and Castillo are great pitchers and you can make a case for using either of them as one of your SP options on this slate. Flaherty is in the top 5 of the Carnage Report while Castillo falls just short but had a nice strikeout rate last season. The only issue with using Castillo is the Cardinals didn’t strikeout all that much last season, losing Kolten Wong will help keep that up but the addition of Nolan Arenado doesn’t exactly help. I’m more apt to go with Flaherty here, the Reds have a higher strikeout rate and are just a worse offense overall.

STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson

GPP Note: I don’t love targeting Luis Castillo, but you can make a case for a few of these bats.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez

GPP Note: I like these lefty bats the most and they’re relatively cheap as one-off options.

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Tampa Bay Rays (-141) @ Miami Marlins (+130)

Starting Pitchers:

Rays – Tyler Glasnow (DK – $8.8k; FD – $10.0k)

Marlins – Sandy Alcantara (DK – $6.5k; FD – $8.5k)

Rundown:

Glasnow is a guy I really like here and would be my favorite spend-up option on the slate. He has a VKSCORE of over 700 on the Carnage Report in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against the Marlins who have an implied run total of 3.5. The one issue with the Marlins is they don’t strikeout all that much, but Glasnow has good enough swing and miss stuff to overcome that here. The Rays have an implied total of over 4.4 here – the issue with stacking the Rays is their one of the highest priced stacks on the slate, it is a bit better on FanDuel however.

TBR 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena

4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, Manuel Margot

GPP Note: I like the stack, but I wish they were cheaper.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Starling Marte

GPP Note: Glasnow is one of my favorite pitching options on the slate, so I won’t have much exposure to Miami here.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-208) @ Colorado Rockies (+189)

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (DK – $9.5k; FD – $9.0k)

Rockies – German Marquez (DK – $6.8k; FD – $6.9k)

Rundown:

Welcome to the chalkiest offensive game on the slate, or at least what I expect to be. Coors field always brings high ownership even against other teams’ aces. The Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.6 runs and also happen to be one of the best offenses no matter what park they’re in. They’ll be expensive and high-owned, but the numbers back it up. If you want to get different and still get exposure to Coors, the Rockies will be the team you want. Kershaw has a career 4.44 ERA at Coors which is easily his highest at any ballparks, curveballs and sliders go to die at Coors and that’s what he’s known for.

LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux

GPP Note: They’re the top stack on the slate if you can afford them.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story

4-star plays: CJ Cron, Garrett Hampson, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: I like getting to the Rockies as a GPP pivot off the Dodgers and still taking advantage of the park factor.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+200) @ San Diego Padres (-222)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner (DK – $7.1k; FD – $7.7k)

Padres – Yu Darvish  (DK – $10.3k; FD – $10.7k)

Rundown:

I touched on Yu Darvish at the beginning of the article, so if you skipped that part, scroll back up! I won’t be getting to much Madison Bumgarner here, the Padres offense is scary loaded and has an implied run total of 5.2 here. Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers, and Tommy Pham all had hard contact rates of over 47% against lefties last season, so that’s an intriguing mini stack and isn’t all that expensive due to the savings you get on Pham at $3.1k on DraftKings. I would have interest in a contrarian stack against Darvish, but I think we can wait for a better offense to do it with, this DBacks lineup is just ugly.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note: I don’t hate mini-stacking the lefties for some leverage in MME.

SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers, Tommy Pham

4-star plays: Manny Machado

GPP Note: Solid stack all around if you can find the salary for those high-end pieces, but there are some salary savers scattered throughout this lineup in guys like Pham, Profar, and Caratini.

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Texas Rangers (+145) @ Kansas City Royals (-158)

Starting Pitchers:

Rangers – Kyle Gibson (DK – $5.3k; FD – $6.9k)

Royals – Brad Keller (DK – $5.9k; FD – $7.6l)

Rundown:

I touched on Brad Keller at the beginning as well, he’s one of my favorite punt pitching options if you’re spending up with your stack. Kansas City’s offense is sneaky good this season after what we saw last year. They come in here with an implied run total over five and have that power/speed upside that can help a stack be incredibly effective, and they’re really cheap. I like them quite a bit as a stack in this one, not to mention we have Kyle Gibson as the second-highest carnage score on the day.

TEX 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Gallo

GPP Note: Just the usual one-off Joey Gallo play for me.

KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler

4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier

GPP Note: I may like the Royals stack more than I should here but that power/speed upside is really intriguing to me against one of the worst graded pitchers on the day.

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New York Mets (-140) @ Washington Nationals (+129)

Starting Pitchers:

Mets  – Jacob DeGrom (DK – $10.4k; FD – $11.0k)

Nationals – Max Scherzer (DK – $10.8k; FD – $10.6k)

Rundown:

Matchup of two legit aces here, both teams have an implied run total of 3.6 runs or less. Scherzer is susceptible to the big inning but strikes out enough guys to where it generally doesn’t matter in terms of his fantasy score. I do think you can get a one-off or two from the Mets due to this, but nothing I would go too crazy over. Then I have no interest in stacking or even that much interesting one-offs against DeGrom, the guy is lock down, and with the temperature supposed to be less than 40 degrees, I’ll just go elsewhere.

NYM 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto

GPP Note: I like a few one-offs here in hopes we can find a home run.

WAS 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Juan Soto

GPP Note: I have no interest in using bats against DeGrom.

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Chicago White Sox (-112) @ Los Angeles Angels (+104)

Starting Pitchers:

White Sox – Lucas Giolito (DK – $9.2k; FD – $9.9k)

Angels – Dylan Bundy (DK – $7.2k; FD – $7.9k)

Rundown:

Both teams come in with a pretty solid implied run total here, but I would much prefer the White Sox side of things. Giolito is a solid pitcher, whereas Bundy can be streaky and give up that big inning. They did lose a big bat in Eloy Jimenez, but there’s still enough juice in this lineup to make a stack. The Angels are a fine GPP stack due to how good the top of this order is, but once you get past Upton in that five-hole, it goes downhill fast and acts as a bit of a buzzsaw. It’s enough for me not to want to pitch Giolito but also enough for me to not go too crazy on an Angels stack here.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal

GPP Note: Bundy is prone to having a blow-up game every now and again, so I like getting some White Sox pieces here.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton

GPP Note: Mike Trout is always in play, but it’s an expensive mini-stack if you add any of Upton/Rendon/or Ohtani with him.

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Houston Astros (-108) @ Oakland Athletics (-100)

Starting Pitchers:

Astros – Zack Greinke (DK – $8.7k; FD – $8.7k)

Athletics – Chris Bassitt (DK – $6.4k; FD – $7.2k)

Rundown:

People may chase the Astors here due to the name recognition in their lineup, but Chris Bassitt was sneaky good last season going for a sub 3.00 ERA and the Astros were really pretty bad as a whole. Now, they do have some elite hitters in guys like Bregman, Alvarez, Correa, Tucker, Altuve and even Brantley… so I think there’s some upside here but I wouldn’t go too crazy due to how good Bassitt was last season. Greinke was just the opposite of Bassitt in that he was sneaky average at best, the A’s are a stack I went to a lot last season and their lineup stayed pretty much the same, I don’t mind them in this matchup.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa

GPP Note: I think their names are bigger than their upside here, but I don’t mind them for a mini-stack.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha

GPP Note: I like the A’s a sneaky amount here, Greinke wasn’t as good as you might expect last season.

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San Francisco Giants (-104) @ Seattle Mariners (-104)

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – Kevin Gausman (DK – $6.9k; FD – $7.4k)

Mariners – Marco Gonzales (DK – $8.0k; FD – $8.3k)

Rundown:

If you’re playing the late slate I think this is where you go to get some pitching. Both of these lineups are near the bottom of the league and are in a massive pitchers park out in Seattle. Gonzales would be my preferred option. He probably won’t strikeout a ton of batters but he does have a lot of soft contact type stuff. Gausman is the opposite, he’s more volatile than Gonzales but is able to rack up a bit more k’s for some upside. It’s pretty much just the pitchers for me here, the bats don’t look all that intriguing.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: Just one-offs on these lefty-mashers in hopes we can run into a home run.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Ty France

GPP Note: If you’re looking for a full-stack in this game I think Seattle gives you the best bet, but I would rather go elsewhere or at least stick to a mini-stack.

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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: As I mentioned in their write-up, the Dodgers should be uber popular today due to their matchup and park factor of Coors field. They’re expensive, but they’re also one of the best teams in baseball in the best hitters park in baseball. The below picture is from our Starting Lineups page, but here is what the lineup as a whole has done against righties last season, good luck Mr. Marquez.
2. Boston Red Sox: I like this spot quite a bit for Boston, they may come in with some ownership due to that implied run total but with a matchup against John Means and that terrible Orioles bullpen it’s hard to ignore. You can stack this lineup a lot of different ways as well depending on what they roll out but guys like Kike Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe make for great salary savers in the middle and top of the order.
3. Kansas City Royals: Another implied total of over five runs with the Royals, but the thing I love about them is the steal upside you get with guys like Merrifield, Benintendi, and the potential for Michael Taylor. Then follow that up with the home run swings of Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier, and Jorge Soler, it’s got a recipe for success and gives you a number of outs for your guys to get value. 

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Carlos Santana (DK – $3.6k; FD – $2.8k)

The first dinger of the day pick goes to Mr. Santana! I just touched on how much I like the Royals offense in this one and I think Santana has a big role in that success. Kyle Gibson really struggled with left-handed power last season giving up a nearly 30% HR/FB rate in 2020. Santana had a down season at the plate as a whole last season but I think the power numbers are still there with him. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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