Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
Game 4 of this series, which takes place at Dodger Stadium, will see Zack Greinke take on Frankie Montas.
We actually see more red slots above than we see anything else. That is going to make it an interesting spot given how much offense has gone on in this series. The Astros have had some success against Montas in their careers. When we look at the profiles, we see that Bregman has the best overall match-up while guys like Springer, Altuve, Tucker, and Brantley have solid paths to success.
For Montas, the key will be how hard his sinker gets hit by both sides of the plate and his slider by the RHBs. We see a lot of neutral non-color in the slider column but a TON of red in the sinker column.
I will get this updated as the Astros have decided to go with Zack Greinke. Update coming shortly!
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
We get to see Jordan Montgomery against the combination of Ryan Thompson/Ryan Yarbrough in San Diego. Montgomery and the Yankees are -117 favorites and the game sits with a total set at 9.5.
By the looks of the pitch profile above, we should see some success for a few Yankees bats. We see guys like Luke Voit and DJ LeMahieu with strong matches to the profile, while we get the hot bat of Stanton with a very solid match. There is a path to success for guys like Judge, Torres, and Urshela.
When looking at it from Yarbrough’s side, it’s going to be all about his sinker-cutter combination and how well it sets up his change-up. He has great numbers with his change-up but the Yankees RHBs hit change-ups really well.
The Rays are striking out a TON but the profile above favors them slightly. Michael Brosseau is somebody that dominated against LHPs all season long and he matches up EXTREMELY well. Somebody like Arozarena has a very small sample size but he’s really hot right now. Guys like Renfroe, Adames, and Diaz have solid paths to GPP winning performances.
As far as Montgomery goes, RHBs have crushed his sinker-change-curve trio of pitches. He is in for a long day if the Rays go very RH heavy in their lineup. I just wish Renfroe had been getting more ABs up til today.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
We get to see Kyle Wright take on Sixto Sanchez in Houston. Atlanta and Wright have opened as -135 favorites, while the game has a total sitting at 8.5 runs.
The Marlins do not appear to line up very well against Wright’s profile here. The plus thing for them is that Wright isn’t very sharp and loses control quite often. If Miami is going to extend this series they will need the top half of their lineup to get it done. I am looking at Dickerson, Cooper, Aguilar, and Anderson is my targets with their solid profile match-ups.
When looking at it from Wright’s side, we have a very limited sample size. The key will be how he does with his fastball. Batters from both sides of the plate have done a ton of damage to his fastball.
The image above shows us that the top of the order should find a way to stay hot in this match-up. Ronald Acuna Jr and Freddie Freman jump off of the page to me in terms of profile matches. We have to like the upside in Ozuna, d’Arnaud, and even Austin Riley with their profiles.
When it comes to Sanchez, he has struggled against the teams that have seen him more than once. This will be the Braves’ third time facing him and he follows two guys that throw pretty hard so I don’t think his fastball is going to surprise the Braves bats much. Everything comes down to how sharp his slider is so that it works off of his fastball. The command is going to be the key in this spot for Sanchez.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
I am still waiting for confirmation on the pitching plans for this game. My assumption is that we get Julio Urias against Morejon/Paddack but that’s somewhat of a dart, especially the Padres side.
The Padres are loaded with HR ability but can we expect them to get to that ability against Urias? We see a few exceptional spots for the Padres bats. We see that Tatis has blue everywhere while guys like Machado, Nola, and Hosmer have multiple blue pitch matches. Wil Myers is a guy that I think is in a sneaky spot and Pham has positive history against Urias and has performed well this postseason.
When we look at it from Urias’ side, it’s really all about his fastball-change combination and how well he utilizes it to attack the RHBs. His slider is going to be key against Cronenworth-Hosmer in this spot as well.
Looking above, I added May’s profile because he is now starting. I have no idea if he goes more than 2 innings or not as he pitched in relief just 2 days ago.
I am waiting to get an idea of who is going to be the long-reliever for SD here. They can’t keep doing full bullpen games at this point. Above I have attached Chris Paddack’s profile just in case we get word he is going to pitch.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!
