Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Editor’s Note – Did you know sportsbetting is taking over?! MLB, NFL, and NBA have crazy options these days, and the public makes mistakes!! Our dynamic modeling over at SportsBetArmy adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
Game 3 of this series, which takes place at Dodger Stadium, will see Luzardo take on Urquidy. We see that Urquidy and the Astros are -115 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 9.
We actually see more neutral slots above than we see anything else. In a smaller sample size, the Astros have hit 4 HRs against Luzardo and they are swinging the power bats in the series. We notice that George Springer lines up excellently here (and he’s scorching at the plate). Guys like Bregman and Gurriel are solid options as we see a couple of blue boxes for them.
For Luzardo, it all comes down to how he handles the RHBs. He has allowed a wOBA of .457 to RHBs with his sinker (Bregman, Gurriel). His slider has an XwOBA (Expected weighted on-base average) of .510 given up to RHBs. He has even allowed a 50% hard-hit rate to RHBs when he uses his fastball, as well.
We see quite a bit of red above which would mean this isn’t a great match-up for Oakland. Matt Olson lines up as one of the best plays on the slate when looking at pitch profile only. It makes sense that he has hit an HR against Urquidy. After Olson, we see a guy like Sean Murphy has some intrigue to him but in a small sample size.
With there being so much red, we really only have to worry about one column. The fastball is going to be the focus in this spot. Urquidy has allowed an ISO of .344 to RHBs and an XwOBA of .354 to LHBs using that pitch. Some of the other numbers he’s allowed are a .405 wOBA to RHBs with his curve and a wOBA of .462 to LHBs with his slider.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
We get to see Masahiro Tanaka against Charlie Morton in San Diego. Tanaka and the Yankees are -119 favorites and the game sits with a total set at 9.
By the looks of the pitch profile above, we should see some success for a few Yankees bats. We see guys like Luke Voit and Gio Urshela with strong matches to the profile, while we get the hot bat of Stanton with a very solid match. There is a path to success for guys like Torres, Sanchez, and even Gardner. DJ LeMahieu doesn’t stand out as exceptional but that’s just fine because he’s always an option for us.
When looking at it from Morton’s side, he is going to have to avoid hard contact with his sinker-fastball combination. By avoiding that or pitching with a purpose, he should get to use his curve in solid spots and that’s his best pitch.
The Rays are striking out a TON but the profile above favors them slightly. Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and Ji-Man Choi have the best match-ups as they each of 3 blue columns. Somebody like Arozarena has a very small sample size but he’s really hot right now and Kiermaeier has an excellent history against Tanaka.
As far as Tanaka goes, he needs to limit the hard contact with his fastball. He’s allowed an XwOBA of .460 to LHBs and .462 to RHBs when the at-bat ends with a fastball. Those numbers are not a path to success. His slider has allowed an ISO of .224 to LHBs and his sinker has allowed an ISO of .320 to RHBs. His make or break pitch in this match-up is going to be his splitter but he has to get ahead in the count to really benefit.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
We get to see Ian Anderson take on Pablo Lopez in Houston. Atlanta and Anderson have opened as -200 favorites, while the game has a total sitting at 8.5 runs.
The Marlins do not appear to line up very well against Anderson’s profile here. I would say that Dickerson, Aguilar, and Cooper are the ones that have the best baths to successful at-bats. With how pesky this Marlins team is, I can see some guys working walks in this match-up. It just depends if it’s the bottom of the line-up or the top. If the walks are coming by the top, then Anderson is in a better spot as the bottom half of the lineup has a much weaker profile.
When looking at it from Anderson’s side, we have a very limited sample size. The keys will be how he does with his fastball and his curve, especially to the RHBs. He has allowed an ISO of .429 with his fastball to those RHBs and an XwOBA of .542 with his curveball. Remember, his sample size is extremely limited at the MLB level.
The image above shows us that the top of the order should find a way to stay hot in this match-up. Ronald Acuna Jr has a perfect profile for this match-up. He also has a huge chip on his shoulder when facing the Marlins. Next, we see that Freddie Freeman has an excellent match-up, while Ozuna and d’Arnaud are in solid spots for success against Lopez.
When it comes to Lopez, he struggles to LHBs quite a bit. They have ISOs of .241 and .211 against his change and sinker, respectively. His fastball is always going to be important while his curve against RHBs is going to be the key to getting outs against them. The RHBs have an XwOBA of .434 against his curveball.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
The Padres look to be going with Zach Davies. Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are -220 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 8.5.
The Padres are loaded with HR ability but can we expect them to get to that ability against Kershaw? We see a few exceptional spots for the Padres bats. There are 3 blue columns (which are all the columns) for guys like Tatis Jr, Machado, and Austin Nola. We see that Wil Myers isn’t far behind them even though he’s had a pretty rough go of it BvP wise.
When we look at it from Kershaw’s side, it really comes down to how sharp he is with his slider against RHBs. He has allowed a 48.5% hard-hit rate with an XwOBA of .404 to RHBs with that pitch. When it comes to facing LHBs (should face 3 of them) it’s a matter of how he handles them with his fastball-curve combination. He’s allowed ISOs of .314 and .280 with his fastball and curveballs to LHBs (smaller sample size).
There is a ton of blue above. We get LHBs like Seager and Bellinger with very strong profiles to go with guys like Betts and Turner with solid to very solid matches. The keys will be who hits his sinker-change combination the best and that really brings Seager into play for me as a top tier option. We have a very small sample for a guy like Will Smith who could be an excellent option.
When it comes to Davies, it’s all about his sinker-change combination, as I mentioned above. He has allowed a wOBA of .396 and ISO of .252 to LHBs with his sinker. Those LHBs have an XwOBA of just .327 and ISO of .072 against his change-up. The RHBs have a 42% hard-hit rate against his change-up and a 45% hard-hit rate against his cutter.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!
