Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
Game 2 of this series, which takes place at Dodger Stadium, will see Manaea take on Valdez. We see that Manaea and the A’s are -116 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 9.
Manaea hasn’t pitched in two weeks. I wonder what kind of rust he will exhibit against a team that has seen him plenty over the last few seasons. When we look at the image above, we see guys like Bregman and Springer as pretty strong plays based on the pitch profile and they have combined to go 17 for 57 against him. Carlos Correa is really hot during the postseason and he has had success against him so I would treat his profile with a little bit of boost based on how he’s rolling right now.
For Manaea, it’s all about how much he can limit hard contact by RHBs. Those RHBs have hit his slider-curve combo extremely well while also hitting his fastball hard (a 62% HH rate). He does such a great job at limiting LHBs that I could see the Astros going with somebody else over Reddick in this spot.
Valdez has been extremely strong this season so I have a hard time wanting to go against him. When we look above, we see a decent amount of blue areas for us to target. We see guys like Canha and Laureano with strong profile matches against Valdez. I have an interest in Semien, Pinder, and Piscotty to go along with the other two. We don’t have enough data on a guy like Sean Murphy but the way he is swinging it during the postseason I feel like we have to consider him.
Like I said about Valdez, he’s been so damn good this season for the Astros. When I look at his pitch usage and numbers, the route the A’s have to success is through his curveball and then his fastball off of that. He has a great sinker and that pitch has been tough for anybody to lift. So like I said, he has to avoid some of the guys that hit curveballs from LHPs really well (Pinder, Laureano, Olson, Canha).
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
We get to see Deivi Garcia make his postseason debut against Tyler Glasnow in San Diego. Glasnow and the Rays are -113 favorites and the game sits with a total set at 8.
By the looks of the pitch profile above, we see more red than we see blue. We know the Yankees bats are scorching right now so they get a bit of a boost. Guys like Stanton, Voit, Judge, and LeMahieu are all guys we are going to be wanting to use no matter what. I am not enamored with the spot for any other guys and would only consider using the rest in stacks.
When looking at it from Glasnow’s side, his curveball is nasty against both sides of the plate (especially LHBs). If the Yankees are going to do damage it’s against his fastball and by the RHBs in their lineup.
The Rays are striking out a TON and have never gotten to face Garcia before. We see slightly more blue than red but we also see a TON of white in this match-up. That would lean me to believe it’s somewhat of a neutral spot. We have a few bats with very little data for us to rely on but we know that Arozarena has been really strong for the Rays, while guys like Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi have decent profiles.
As far as Garcia goes, he has given up 5 HRs to RHBs with only 1 being hit by LHBs this season. We have very limited pitch data as far as what pitches allow what for contact, etc. From what I can see, LHBs can hit his fastball while the RHBs get to avoid having to face his best pitch, his change-up.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
We get to see Max Fried take on Sandy Alcantara in Houston. Atlanta and Fried have opened as -200 favorites, while the game has a total sitting at 8 runs.
The Marlins do not appear to line up very well against Fried’s profile here. We see a couple of guys, Marte (who is probably going to miss this game) and Aguilar with a couple of blue slots but that’s about it. If the lineup is different than the projected one, I will be re-doing this section as I am curious as to what Alfaro’s profile is that has gotten him 3 hits in 5 at-bats against Fried. Brian Anderson has a decent profile based on his hard-hit rate of the secondary pitches.
When looking at it from Fried’s side, we notice that it’s mainly his FB that gets him into trouble against RHBs. The rest of his pitch profile has some pretty low numbers against him. This looks like a great spot for Fried, even though the Marlins are just a tough team to shut down for some reason.
The image above shows us more red than blue for the Braves bats. Even with more red, we get Acuna and Freeman in very solid spots. Guys like Ozuna and d’Arnaud are in decent spots when looking at their hard-hit rates against Alcantara’s secondary pitches. By the looks of things, I am going to keep my Braves stacks at the top.
When it comes to Alcantara, his slider is going to be the key pitch. That is if you take the fastball out of the equation as the fastball is always going to be important. His slider is the one that can get hit the best out of his profile. He can struggle with his sinker against LHBs so that would bring Albies into play against that pitch only in my opinion.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
The Padres are going to go with Clevinger but how long, who knows! Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -160 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 8.5.
The Padres are loaded with HR ability and they seem to have a flair for the dramatic. I love how Tatis profiles against Buehler’s 3 main pitches while I think Machado and Myers match-up pretty decently. We don’t have enough data on Cronenworth but he has been hot so far in the postseason. The two guys near the bottom of the image, Grisham, and Moreland, appear to be in an excellent spot. They aren’t exactly hot at the plate but the profiles are inviting to me.
When we look at it from Buehler’s side, we see that he can struggle with his cutter against LHBs. When it comes to facing RHBs, they can take advantage of some control issues with his fastball. His slider hasn’t been very sharp against them, either.
I am not sure what kind of a lineup we see from the Dodgers as they left Rios off of the roster for this round. I assume that means we get Lux or Pederson at DH but I am not sure. I will update the image above once we get a confirmed lineup. We see a LOT of blue in this image, as you would expect. If Clevinger tries to rely on his fastball, he’s in trouble against this lineup. We get strong profile match-ups from Bellinger and Seager. We also get some good numbers for guys like Smith, Betts, Turner, and even Taylor.
When it comes to Clevinger, I can’t put much stock in anything right now. He’s been dealing with an elbow and biceps issue over the last month. I would be shocked to see him throw more than 3 against this Dodgers lineup. It could very much end up as a bullpen game, yet again for the Padres.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!
