Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
Game 1 of this series, which takes place at Dodger Stadium, will see Bassitt take on McCullers Jr. We see that Bassitt and the A’s are -139 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 8.
Coming into this season, Bassitt had been more of reverse splits SP but that has changed in 2020. A few of the Astros bats have had success against him in their careers but he has been so good this season. The pitches that I worry about are his cutter (against all bats), change-ups (against LHBs), and sinkers (against LHBs). Looking at the profile above, Alex Bregman is the one that jumps off the page the most. Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa are in pretty decent spots and have had success against Bassitt.
For Bassitt, his cutter allows an ISO of .368 and .345 against LHBs and RHBs respectively. He allows an ISO of .308 to LHBs with his sinker. The thing here is that if his numbers have reverted to more of a true split, then he is even more dangerous against a very RH heavy Astros squad. He made 3 starts against HOU this season and allowed 5 runs in 17 IP. He only struck out 9 while walking 6 so there are some worries there.
Since McCullers return from the IL, he has flashed some impressive K upside. We see a spot where Matt Olson should line up pretty strongly but he has struggled mightily against McCullers and he is struggling a TON right now (6 Ks in 9 postseason ABs). Two guys that I am interested in based on history against McCullers and/or the Astros plus decent profiles are Laureano and Semien. Both guys have had a little success against McCullers and Laureano has torn up the Astros this season.
McCullers has been reverse splits over the last few seasons. Since he missed time with injuries, his sample sizes aren’t quite the same as the others. The nice thing for him here is that his curveball is the pitch getting hit the hardest by RHBs but the A’s lack much for a punch against that pitch from that side of the plate. The only two guys that would stand out are Sean Murphy (who I am a big fan of) and Chad Pinder (who I don’t think very highly of).
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
We get to see Gerrit Cole take on Blake Snell in a battle of Cy Young aces, in San Diego. Cole and the Yankees are -142 favorites and the game sits with a total set at 7.
By the looks of the pitch profile above, the Yankees have some guys that can do damage against what Snell has to offer. The issue is that most of them have struggled quite a bit against him in their careers. We also probably don’t get to see Sanchez in the lineup because Higashioka is Cole’s personal catcher. DJ LeMahieu has always hit LHPs well and has a solid profile match-up while Stanton has a GREAT profile match-up but he isn’t hitting ANYTHING that has a spin to it. He is struggling a TON this season against non-fastballs. Aaron Judge has a decent profile, as do guys like Torres and Urshela.
When looking at it from Snell’s side, he has to avoid LHBs that hit sliders well and RHBs that can hit curveballs. I am not sure that he will see any LHBs in the starting lineup. So we should just focus on hard fastballs and curves with some change-ups mixed in. If his fastball isn’t getting many swings outside of the zone or on the corners, then he is going to struggle to get swings with his change-up.
The Rays are striking out a TON and we get a pitcher who is racking up Ks right now. I know the Rays offer some power upside and HRs have been the Achilles heel of Cole this season. There is a lot more red above than there is blue so we might just have to pick and choose some one-off type plays. Brandon Lowe has the best profile against Cole but hasn’t had any success against him. The two guys that have the best history against Cole aren’t in the projected lineup. We do not know how healthy Choi or Diaz is but I will update if they are in the lineup. Willy Adames has a decent profile but 11 of his 14 outs against Cole have been Ks.
As far as Cole goes, LHBs can beat him against his fastball (.222 ISO) and his curve (.242 ISO). He is really solid against RHBs but his fastball has allowed an XwOBA of .387 to them. I am all about Cole here but the power bats are always scary. When you have a pitcher as dominant as Cole, I take the BvP even more seriously.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!
