Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Welcome to the ALCS, which is being played in San Diego at PetCo Park. Game 4 of the series will see Zack Greinke take on Tyler Glasnow. The Tampa Bay Rays are a -140 favorite and the game has a total set at 8 runs. This is a win-or-go-home game for the Astros.
We see that the Astros have had some success against Glasnow in their careers. The thing that stands out to me is the fact they have K’d just 20% of the time against him. You see a highlighted in a green box as it points out Bregman‘s BvP to go with all the blue columns for him. He’s going to be the key to the Astros tonight as they battle to avoid elimination. He’s been hitting the ball hard this series but has been getting a bit unlucky when it comes to BABIP. Springer and Altuve look like solid options as Altuve has been the best Astros bat in this series. I think that Springer is the better GPP option of the two, while I think somebody like Maldonado or Diaz (if he starts for some reason) could be GPP dart options.
For Glasnow, he is extremely reliant on his fastball. It is nearly a cut fastball with the way that he holds it as it has a natural cut movement to it at a very high velocity. The great thing about this match-up is that the Astros are very RH heavy and the key is how his fastball does to RHBs. He has allowed an ISO of .191 to RHBs with his fastball over the last 4 years.
The Rays are striking out a TON but can Greinke take advantage of that? We see that they have hit 9 HRs in just 67 PAs against Greinke in their careers. I would argue that he was better in those AB’s than he is going to be tonight. I know he started solid against OAK in his last start but then hit a wall and gave up a couple more HRs. There is a decent amount of blue above and it’s actually spread out, which gives multiple guys a route to success. As I sit here, I am praying that Kevin Cash gives Renfroe a start tonight with his BvP and to reward him for his play late last night. I can’t stop playing Brandon Lowe, I am basically pot committed at this point. We see very positive spots for guys like Zunino, Margot, and Choi.
The key for Greinke is going to be the use of his change-up according to the image above. When we think about that, we realize the other pitch that is going to matter is his fastball. Those two pitches play off of each other so much. His fastball isn’t going to overpower anybody at this point so he is going to have to work backward and allow his change-up to set up his fastball.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Welcome to the NLCS, we get to see the Braves and Kyle Wright take on Julio Urias and the Dodgers. This is Game 3 and it’s being played in Arlington (Texas Rangers). The Dodgers are -183 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 9.5 runs.
We get to see an LHP take on the Braves for the first time this postseason. They have been doing a ton of work against RH starters. This is a team that I liken to the Astros as they should destroy LHPs based on their lineup build but they are actually stronger against RHPs. Looking above, we see the usual suspects with Acuna and Freeman with solid matches. We also see the obvious Ozuna and even d’Arnaud (a smaller sample). The one bat with the best profile match in my eyes is Ozzie Albies. He has come alive with an HR in each of the first two games of the series. Albies is 4 for 4 against LHPs this postseason, while the rest of the team is 7 for 28 combined.
The key for Urias is going to be the use of his slider-curve combination. He relies plenty on his change-up and it’s a pretty good one so I am not very worried about that pitch. If he gets ahead in the count, his change-up is going to be very tough to square up for most of the Braves lineup. I can see him struggling with d’Arnaud the most.
WOW, we see quite a bit of blue again today. Wright has stepped up for the Braves over his last few starts. He has upside as an SP at the MLB level but realizes he was struggling quite a bit prior to his recent stretch. Once again we see Bellinger with a lot of blue next to his name. My worry is that his struggles are just going to trump his historical numbers. He did hit a big triple in the 9th last night and maybe that gets him going. Looking at the rest of the Dodgers, Seager is going to be my second favorite. A couple of other bats that stand out to me, profile-wise, are Betts, Smith, and Joc Pederson.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much to work with when it comes to Wright’s pitch history. In his short MLB career, Wright has given up an ISO over .300 to both the LH and RH side of the plate. He is going to need to find a way to command his fastball (he has a walking issue). I think he goes 4 tonight at most.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!
