Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
We get Zack Greinke taking on Kenta Maeda with the game taking place at Target Field in Minnesota. The game opened with a run total set at 7.5 runs and Minnesota a -160 favorite.
When we look at the Astros hitters against Maeda, we see that they have some strong ISO numbers against his FB velocity. The issue with relying on this is that everybody in baseball can hit fastballs to a degree. As a team, they hit the sliders pretty well but nothing that stands out. We see that Bregman and Correa love to hit change-ups from RHPs but Maeda only throws it 7% of the time to RHBs. As long as Maeda is able to get ahead in the count and can avoid having to rely on fastballs, the Astros should have some struggles. The slider is going to be the important out pitch here as the lineup has decent numbers against it, with Brantley having the best overall profile against that pitch.
So I know I mentioned above how everybody in baseball can hit fastballs so in general, we kind of take them with a grain of salt. In this spot, I take a little more interest in them because Greinke’s fastball is on the slow side at this point in his career (I generally take note in extremely slow and extremely strong FBs). We know that Greinke relies on location but if he is off just a little bit or finds himself in FB counts, he is going to have some trouble against the likes of Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Garver. Garver is the one that I want to point out here as he has had a terrible 2020, dealing with injuries and just overall struggles. He has massive power and his numbers (very small sample) against soft fastballs can lead to big things. I think he is a super sneaky GPP play that could win you ALL the money today. The key to Greinke’s day will be how well his slider is working against the RHBs of the Twins.
Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics
The White Sox have opened as a -118 favorite on the road here. They will rely on Lucas Giolito in this game 1 match-up, while the Athletics will hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo. This game has a total set at 7.5 runs.
Oh boy! We see a lot of red in this match-up! I had a feeling that Giolito would offer us some upside for GPP play as he opened as a road favorite here but I had no idea we would see so many “bad” numbers on the A’s side. Of course, as I stated earlier, the A’s can hit fastballs (most teams can). There is so much red on this image that it makes the white stand out as solid options to me when they really should just be average or slightly above-average spots. Based on the profile, you can see why Matt Olson has had success against Giolito. I would include Laureano as a GPP option based on his ability against the FB-CH combination.
So this is a spot that has me perplexed. We know that the White Sox have a ridiculous team ISO against LHPs in 2020. We also know that Luzardo struggled down the stretch a bit. I do see a decent amount of blue above but we also see a lot of white and a lot of incomplete information. I see Grandal being in the lineup while multiple places project him as out of the lineup. The White Sox have a decision because James McCann profiles as one of the better hitters in the lineup in this spot. I have always loved him against LHPs and this match-up shows why he could be successful. Luzardo throws that hard FB as I mentioned earlier so we do have to pay attention to that. Abreu and Encarnacion are the power bats that intrigue me here as Jimenez has been hobbled and Anderson struggled over the last couple weeks but still finished the season with a MONSTER stat line against LHPs. Should Grandal end up in the lineup, I will do my best to get an update to this article, either in here or in chat!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
This game will see Matt Shoemaker against Blake Snell. The game opened with a total set at 7 runs and Snell and the Rays are -182 favorites in their home park.
This is a spot that I think has GPP upside but it probably fails FAR more than it succeeds. Snell was on a K tear against TOR in the regular season in 2020. He struck out 14 in 7.2 IP against them. Toronto is a great fastball hitting team, even against the 96+ MPH stuff that Snell offers. In their BvP history that there is a lot of K’s as well. We see that the only guys to hit his slider would be RHBs and he rarely throws that pitch to RHBs. If Snell struggles today, it’s going to be because Bichette, Gurriel, and Jansen get him in spots where he has to rely on his FB or in predictable spots where he goes to the change-up (Bichette) or curve (Jansen, Gurriel). I have a hard time trusting the LvL numbers of Biggio because Snell has been SO good against LHBs.
I do think that this spot will be popular and I understand why. The problem is that Shoemaker often leaves us wondering why he didn’t get lit up. He has had an HR problem on the road this season and HRs are HUGE in postseason baseball. Right away we see that Brandon Lowe is a great play and he obviously has the best history against Shoemaker. Nate Lowe struggled mightily to end the season. There is no guarantee he is in the lineup (Ji-Man Choi is close to returning, as is Yandy Diaz). But we see that in a limited sample size, he has a great profile. The one name that surprised me here is Hunter Renfroe. He lines up extremely well and could be a differentiator in GPPs. We aren’t guaranteed to see him in the lineup and he does have the ability to go 0-4 with 4 Ks.
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Here is the game that is going to have a lot of “baseball eyes” attached. We get an amazing SP match-up as Gerrit Cole takes on Shane Bieber. This game opened with a total set at 6.5 runs. The Indians opened as a very small favorite but as of 9 pm CST Monday night, the Yankees are now a -107 favorite on the road.
That appears to be a lot of red for us to stare at. While we should expect guys to struggle with Cole. I am a bit shocked to see the Indians lineup struggle so much against his pitch repertoire. The only guy that stands out is Francisco Lindor. I wasn’t thinking that he would be somebody I would take shots with given how he struggled to finish the season. Ramirez finished the season on a tear and hot stretches can force us to overlook bad match-ups. He destroys 97+ MPH fastballs so there is his path to an HR in this game. The only other guy that makes me stop and think is Naquin. His overall profile isn’t “great” but it’s solid across the board from an ISO and Hard-Hit perspective.
Bieber, who is the overwhelming favorite for the A.L. Cy Young award, against a Yankees squad that is LOADED with RH power bats. From a pitching perspective, he is going to have to hope that his slider and curveballs are extremely sharp. His fastball isn’t overly powerful, it just plays up in speed with his change-up and slider being so strong. He’s projected to face just 2 LHBs, one of which you could argue shouldn’t be in the red. Aaron Hicks intrigues me because he has solid enough ISO’s against those two pitches. They ended up in the red because of his low hard-hit rate. Luke Voit is the one that probably takes Bieber deep tonight. Stanton probably struggles as his success would come against the two pitches that Bieber throws the least to RHBs. Higashioka has a very small sample size but he has had success against the pitch types.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!
