Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Yu Darvish
- Dane Dunning
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
New York Yankees (-128) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Deivi Garcia
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. Garcia has some electric stuff coming out of his very small body. He is generously listed at 5’10 and 165 but the baseball explodes out of his hand. I wish this game wasn’t in Buffalo because I think his upside would be immense. He still has the upside we look for as the Blue Jays allowed Happ to strike out 10 on Tuesday night.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Andujar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last 8 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last 8 games.
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (-224)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8 runs. Carrasco struck out 10 against KC in the first start of the season and looked extremely sharp. He has allowed just 1 run with 13 Ks over his last 2 starts (12 innings). He has 36 Ks in just 25.2 home innings so far this season. Duffy has given up 10 runs over his last 2 starts but he has allowed an average of just .194 on the road so far this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-136)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Braves – Tommy Milone
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Lopez is coming off of his worst start of the season as he allowed 5 runs. He faced ATL earlier and allowed just 2 runs and struck out 8 in 6 innings. He is somebody that I think is severely underrated. This is a tough spot for him but his teammate, Sixto Sanchez, showed us on Tuesday night that they can silence the hot Atlanta bats. Milone just doesn’t do it for me ever and I am still scratching my head, wondering why ATL would trade for him.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last 6 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .321 over the last 7 games.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (-149)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at just 6.5 runs. We get a great pitching match-up that looked like it would be an elite one at one point this season. Bauer has struggled slightly of late but he is still has been strong. He did have, arguably, his worst start of the season against the Cubs. Darvish has been absolutely spectacular and at this point is probably in the NL Cy Young lead. The wind appears to be blowing in yet again today.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 7 games.
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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets (-178)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Mets – Rick Porcello
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Lopez has allowed 15 runs in 19.1 innings this season. Yeah, that’s not very good and now he gets a Mets squad. He allowed 27 HRs in 123.1 innings in 2019 but has allowed just 1 HR so far this season. I am going to say that the number increases after this game. Porcello hasn’t been all too bad of late but he still allows a ton of hard contact to RHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Jose Iglesias
4-star plays: Rio Ruiz, DJ Stewart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 6 games.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-159)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9 runs. Garcia came on in relief of a struggling McCullers last week and looked really solid, allowing just 1 hit while throwing 66 pitches in his 4.1 innings. He did struggle with some control issues and could be flashing some nerves here as he will be getting his 1st MLB start. Luzardo has been all over the place but he did hold HOU to just 2 runs over 5.2 innings earlier this season.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 8 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman (day-to-day)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last 4 games.
Los Angeles Angels (-115) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Julio Teheran
Rangers – Kyle Cody
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. This is an extremely interesting match-up as the Rangers haven’t been very good but they hit Heaney well on Tuesday. Teheran has given up 7 HRs with 10 walks in 22.2 innings this season. He has allowed an OPS of 1.112 against LHBs so far in 2020. Cody has been really strong but is mainly just an RHP who could end up being pushed to about 60 pitches, which makes him mostly unusable for DFS purposes but his numbers make it tough to trust LAA bats.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last 6 games.
TEX 5-star plays: Ronald Guzman
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Leody Tavares
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 7 games.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-177)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Padres – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. The Padres just absolutely smacked around the COL pitching staff on Tuesday night and they line up to do something very similar here. Senzatela has been solid this season but this is just a rough spot for him. He has allowed just 1 run in 13 innings against SD this season. Davies has allowed 7 runs (just 3 earned) in 10.2 innings against COL this season. Both of these SPs lean towards reverse splits so there is some danger in each lineup as the best bats in this game all hit from the right side.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 6 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 7 games.
Seattle Mariners @ San Francisco Giants (-144)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Mick Margevicius
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I think both SPs have been solid enough that I don’t necessarily need to target this game. With that said, I do think the Giants are in a very interesting spot as they have some guys that can mash against LHPs. Anderson has been all over the place this season but overall he has been really strong at home in 2020.
SEA 5-star plays: Dylan Moore
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 4 games.
SF 5-star plays: Donovan Solano, Austin Slater
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .261 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox (-164) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dane Dunning
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I am a fan of Dunning’s upside but I do worry about his control issues. He has flashed his K upside and has flashed his overall upside across his 3 starts. Brubaker actually has been solid as an opener/starter this season. He is yet to allow more than 3 runs in any appearance and has recently reached the completion of 5 innings in back-to-back starts. He does have some struggles against LHBs.
CWS 5-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last 7 games.
Milwaukee Brewers (-148) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Burnes has been dominant this season as he has 53 Ks in 38.1 innings and has an average against him of just .158. The Tigers offense has been pesky and scoring runs but it’s really tough to not like the upside that Burnes offers us. Boyd has been pretty bad this season as he has allowed 11 HRs in 40.2 innings (10 of those to RHBs).
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last 5 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Victor Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-264) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Diamondbacks – Taylor Clarke
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Clarke has now allowed 27 HRs in 112 innings at the MLB level. He has been pretty solid this season but did allow 3 runs in 3 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season. Kershaw has been dominant and if he qualified, he would be 2nd in the NL in ERA (behind Darvish). He has faced ARI twice so far this season and has allowed just 4 hits in 11.2 innings while striking out 14 and allowing 0 runs.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- New York Mets
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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