Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Shane Bieber
- Tyler Glasnow
- Masahiro Tanaka
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-205)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Twins – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has a total of 9.5 runs. The Twins have the best home record in all of baseball and they are taking on a rookie that has been highly touted since he was drafted out of Auburn. So far I would say that the Tigers are treating Mize with some kid’s gloves as he threw just 67 pitches in his last start, which was against the Twins. Hill has been all over the place so I just don’t see how we can trust him, even as a large home favorite.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 8 games.
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Cincinnati Reds (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Tejay Antone
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Reds have elected to push Gray back until Monday so we get Antone on the mound today. He offers us some K ability but has yet to go more than 4.1 innings in any appearance this season. Kuhl also offers us some K ability and is a bit intriguing against a Reds squad that can go cold at the plate.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 8 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 8 games.
Toronto Blue Jays (-155) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Red Sox – Andrew Triggs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5 runs.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 8 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 8 games.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-122)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Braves – Josh Tomlin
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5 runs. This series is showing us a TON of offense as the bullpens aren’t exactly strong right now. I was a bit shocked to see the numbers that the Braves have put up as a whole against Corbin as they have just 3 HRs in 188 PAs against him. If I had to predict the starting lineups for tomorrow, I would guess that each team will have 5 guys in their lineup that has a career average over .300 against the opposing SP.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 8 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Adam Duvall
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last 7 games.
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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 9 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-215)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Rogers has been decent through his first 2 starts but he does have some control issues and he has been extremely reversed splits (very small sample). Glasnow is filthy and as long as he avoids the walk issues, he has massive upside, especially here with how low of an IRT that Miami should close with.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Michael Brosseau
4-star plays: Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians (-205)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 7 runs. Anderson is coming off of his worst start of the season (just 4 ER’s allowed) and he’s somebody that people tend to stack against quite a bit (myself included, unfortunately). At this point, we all know how dominant Bieber has been so far this season. He’s the clear front-runner for the AL Cy Young award at this point and we know that the Brewers can strike out a TON against RHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 6 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Cesar Hernandez
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-150)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 7 runs. We get a GREAT SP match-up here. The only thing that would make this better would be if it was in Philadelphia so that Nola had his most favorable split. Both SPs are going to make sense while I don’t see us wanting to stack anything in this game. I won’t argue a Mets one-off bat, especially somebody from the right side due to Nola’s reverse splits.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 8 games.
Chicago White Sox (-210) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Royals – Brad Keller ***UPDATED TO MATT HARVEY***
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10.5 runs. That total seems really high for the SPs that are listed and it makes me wonder if the Royals might be going with Matt Harvey instead of Brad Keller today. If it is Keller, I would bet the under on that 10.5 number but if it were to be Harvey, I would be all about the White Sox offense.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last 7 games.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last 7 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Cubs – Jon Lester
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Potential weather issues tonight as we wait on updated information.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros (-128) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Valdez has thrown 13.1 innings against the Angels this season and has racked up 19 Ks in those 2 appearances. He’s one of the guys that I have been much higher on than the industry and I am going to continue being that. He is allowed to actually pitch in games and doesn’t have to look over his shoulder once he gets to 85 pitches.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last 6 games.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-144)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. I am torn on how to attack this game. We get a couple of SPs that can be targeted and the total is pretty high but both of these offenses leave a TON to be desired. I will probably be stacking the Mariners in a lineup or two because I feel like they offer more upside than the Rangers. Dunn has faced Texas twice this season and has allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings while allowing 8 hits against them.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last 6 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 4 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. Castellani has outperformed himself (his career minor league numbers aren’t that inspiring at all) but this could be a big test. He has shown reverse splits so far at the MLB level but this lineup has what is probably the most dangerous LHBs.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last 6 games.
LAD5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 over the last 6 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-120)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Alex Young
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. The Giants offense is clicking a bit but some of their numbers over the last week are skewed by a 23 run performance in Coors. They get to face another LHP here and that’s when I love to target them for DFS purposes. Cueto is coming off of his best start of the season, which ironically was against this same Arizona squad.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Jon Jay
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 5 games.
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics (-108)
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Garrett Richards
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This one shocks me a bit here. Fiers has been bad and is always at the mercy of the HR ball due to his extreme flyball tendencies. This Padres squad is loaded with power bats so we could see a TON of flyball outs or we could see them put up 5 HRs in this game.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 over the last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last 3 games (COVID).
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Washington Nationals
MLB Dinger of the Day – DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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