Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Kenta Maeda
- Max Fried
- Justus Sheffield
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has a total of 8.5 runs. The Twins have the best home record in all of baseball and they get to face an LHP as a big-time home favorite today. Maeda has been great for the Twins but he had some struggles against this Tigers squad. I feel very confident going back to him hereafter Twins pitching did a great job against the hot Tigers offense yesterday.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 5 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
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Cincinnati Reds (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Anthony DeSclafani
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We get to use DeSclafani in a redemption spot. He was super chalky in his last start against PIT and was absolutely demolished as everything he threw ended up thigh high and down the middle. Williams is a decent SP but there is a TON of plus BvP for hitters in this game.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 7 games.
PIT 5-star plays: Colin Moran
4-star plays: Erik Gonzalez, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Red Sox – Ryan Weber
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 7 games.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9 runs. I love using Max Fried, especially when he is at home. He could get to face the Nationals without Soto in the lineup as he was scratched on Friday with an elbow issue. Fedde is somebody I just won’t be using as the Braves should stay hot in this game.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 7 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 6 games.
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New York Yankees (-250) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees -Gerrit Cole
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Is Gerrit Cole ok? When do we get to see the real Gerrit Cole? These are questions that are rattling around in my head as I just want to see dominant performances out of the game’s top pitchers. This should be a spot where we can see the true Cole on the mound.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last 9 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rays – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Alcantara made his return from the COVID list and was hit hard. I think it’s another long day for him here as the Rays are scoring runs and hitting the ball very well recently. Snell should be solid yet again as the Marlins are going to end up with what might be the lowest team total.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Yoshi Tsutsugo
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians (-116)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8 runs. The Brewers staff shut down the Indians on Friday and now Woodruff gets to take them on. He flashes some serious upside but he seems to always hit a wall in the 5th or 6th. I recently went on a rant about managers and the micro-managing of SPs and not allowing them to grow and go deeper.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last 6 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 6 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Mets – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. This game should be targeted for bats yet again. Both teams are hitting the ball well right now and there could be plenty of HRs, especially from the LHBs of the New York Mets. I know Howard looked strong in his last start and he is a big-time prospect but he has struggled against LHBs.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 9 games.
Chicago White Sox (-210) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. I look for a bounceback from Giolito here after he struggled with the Twins, which followed his no-hitter. We get to use White Sox bats against a mediocre LHP in this spot and that is going to be popular on this slate. Tim Anderson is a guy that is absolutely destroying LHPs so far in 2020.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Nick Madrigal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 7 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .251 over the last 7 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .251 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 5 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Angels – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 5 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-138)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I am really interested in both of these SPs and it’s rare for me to say that about these guys. We know that both of these teams can struggle on the offensive side. Sheffield is going to be the one that stands out the most as Gibson just hasn’t impressed me this year.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Jose Trevino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 6 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 4 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I was shocked to see the Dodgers as this large of a favorite with Gonsolin on the mound. Marquez is more than respectable and has had success against the Dodgers roster. The roster has an OBP of just .295 against him in their careers but they do have a combined ISO of .257 so we know there’s the power to be had.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last 6 games.
LAD5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last 6 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-108)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Giants – Trevor Cahill
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I may not target this game for DFS purposes but I really want to watch as Bumgarner makes his return from the IL and gets to pitch in SF, but against the Giants. If fans were at this game, I would expect them to give him a pretty big ovation as he had done SO much for the franchise.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Daniel Robertson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last 5 games.
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. The A’s were dominated by Zach Davies and his below-average pitch speeds all night on Thursday night. Padres bats turned it on in the 5th inning after getting blanked early by Luzardo. The power started to show up and via the usual suspects. They get to face another LHP here and that could lead to some interesting spots for guys like Machado and Tatis Jr.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 2 games (COVID).
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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