Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Taijuan Walker
- Lance Lynn
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Toronto Blue Jays (-117) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Taijuan Walker
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10.5 runs. Walker threw 6 shutout innings in his Blue Jay debut and has now allowed 0 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. This game has a big-time total, yet again for a Boston home game. Walker is really intriguing to me as the Red Sox aren’t scoring a ton of runs yet this season. Perez doesn’t interest me at all as I think that the Blue Jays should get to him for a few runs here.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last 6 games.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.
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New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – J.A. Happ
Mets – Robert Gsellman
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 9 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 8 games.
Chicago White Sox (-128) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Royals – Danny Duffy
Rundown:
This game has finally opened with a total set at 9.5. This match-up just recently happened as the White Sox hit 2 HRs but only were able to put up 4 runs against Duffy. I love the White Sox against LHPs but they seem to be cooling off slightly so that has me worried a bit. With that said, I think they are going to be one of the more popular stacks. Cease hasn’t been amazing but he has been solid. He does have 12 walks in his last 14.2 innings so that is something to pay attention to.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 6 games.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Gordon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 6 games.
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Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – PPD COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – NA
Mariners -NA
Rundown:
PPD due to a member of the A’s traveling party testing positive.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last 5 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-162)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
The game has a total set at 7.5 runs. We get a VERY inviting SP match-up here. Lynn has been a beast and I am really shocked he didn’t get dealt at the deadline. Greinke doesn’t have the stuff that he once had but he is so good at changing speeds and leaving the hitters completely clueless. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game closed with a total at 7.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Ronald Guzman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 5 games.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 3 games.
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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-168)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10.5 runs. We got a pitcher’s duel on Wednesday night and now we should get an offensive battle on Thursday. Eflin has flashed some really nice K upside this season but he’s done so while also giving up some runs. Sanchez has been pretty bad minus one start against the Marlins this season. He’s allowed 8 HRs in 30 innings while also allowing 51 total baserunners. He has as many runs allowed as he has strikeouts.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Suzuki/Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last 6 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Jean Segura, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .260 over the last 6 games.
Chicago Cubs (-146) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Brubaker has been serviceable for the Pirates so I do have some worries about trying to attack him here. With that said, the Cubs are putting their power to work right now. Brubaker has only allowed 2 HRs in his 20 innings but he does have 10 walks allowed over his last 18 innings of work. Mills started out the season rather impressively but has given up 6 HRs and 17 runs over his last 4 starts (19.2 innings).
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118over the last 8 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-290)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. Vegas really LOVES the Dodgers here. The obvious is that Kershaw is a -290 favorite but when you put that with the fact that this game has a total at 8.5, we have to give the Dodgers one of the higher IRTs on the slate. Weaver allowed 6 runs against the Dodgers earlier this season and has allowed 8 HRs in 27.1 innings so far this season. Kershaw has made 5 starts so far this season and has allowed 0 runs in 2 and just 1 run in another 2 of them starts.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last 5 games.
LAD5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 over the last 6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 4 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Toronto Blue Jays
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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