Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Trevor Bauer
- Masahiro Tanaka
- Tyler Glasnow
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins (-145)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Let me start this off by saying I am a HUGE Twins fan. This is the match-up that I was hoping they would get in the first round. I can’t believe the Twins let game 1 getaway the way they did. They couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position and they played some pretty terrible defense. Urquidy came on late in the season but has given up 3 HRs in his last 2 starts and 3 HRs in his 2 road starts. Berrios is going to need to be sharp here while I think the offense comes alive enough to extend this to game 3 on Thursday.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 5 games.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-130)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. I love this match-up from a pitching standpoint. We get two SPs who are near the top in the Cy Young race in the National League. Bauer should end up winning the award but for much of the season, it might have been Fried’s to lose. The thing with this match-up is we get a really strong Atlanta offense against an elite K pitcher and we get a dangerous and powerful Reds offense against a pitcher who does a good job of limiting hard contact but doesn’t strike out many.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last 5 games.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics (-124)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. I am a HUGE Bassitt fan and probably the leader of the fan club. At this point, I would consider myself the Bassitt whisperer and I think he gets the A’s to a game 3 here. The issue is that the match-up is difficult as the White Sox offense is loaded with power bats. Keuchel has been really strong for the White Sox and is going to pose a threat to the A’s but I can see the A’s doing just enough against him.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 7 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laurano, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I assume we are waiting on the wind information at Wrigley. Kyle Hendricks is in a great spot and if the wind is blowing in, I expect him to go deep with very little damage done against him. This Cubs offense came alive to end the season and Alcantara has some issues keeping guys off the basepaths. I hope we don’t see much for wind in this game as I would prefer to let the bats decide things and not the weather.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Joyce, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last 6 games.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 7. This is another SP match-up that I am going to be all about. Ryu does a great job of keeping hitters off-balance and he should see a pretty weak TB lineup overall. Glasnow has a TON of K upside and the Blue Jays can be struck out quite a bit. We just need the Glasnow that has command of his stuff in this game and we could see a bunch of K’s and a pretty tight pitcher’s duel. Ryu understands how to pitch in big games, coming over from the Dodgers.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 7 games.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Michael Brosseau
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (-154)
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Paddack struggled for much of the season and it makes me wonder what we can expect out of him here. The Padres need him to step up as they are dealing with injuries to Lamet and Clevinger. Paddack has allowed 14 HRs in 59 IP this season and that’s not a good thing to see where every run is huge in postseason series’. Kim has been impressive this season with just 1 bad start to his record. He doesn’t rack up Ks so he has to limit the contact.
STL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong
4-star plays: Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 6 games.
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New York Yankees (-125) @ Cleveland Indians
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game opened with a run total set at 8. Carrasco needs to step up for the Indians here but I just think the Yankees bats will be too much for him to handle. Tanaka gets a great match-up from a stuff standpoint as the Indians struggle a TON against splitters. We have seen the Indians’ bats step up with their backs against the walls to end the season. Will they get to Tanaka in this one? In order to do that, they need Lindor to wake up.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 7 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-235)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brent Suter
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. I was shocked to see the Brewers decide to go with Suter in this spot. I know it’s tough to lose Burnes ahead of a tough series but Suter is being asked to do a LOT here. The Dodgers offense is just super dangerous, no matter who is on the mound. I would expect the Brewers to get Suter through 3 IP and then rely on Freddy Peralta to piggyback him. Buehler has a great match-up but he is tough to figure out. He returned from the IL to throw a 4 inning gem. He should be sharp here and as long as he doesn’t have the blister thing pop up, he gets a cold Brewer offense.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last 7 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Cory Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .316 over the last 6 games.
Mini Stacks of the Day:
- Mookie Betts-AJ Pollock-Justin Turner
- Anthony Rizzo-Willson Contreras-Kris Bryant
- Manny Machado-Fernando Tatis Jr-Wil Myers
Playoff Prediction of the Day:
Masahiro Tanaka takes a no-hitter into the 5th inning while just 3 SPs on the day pitch 6+ innings.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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