Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Dinelson Lamet
- Spencer Turnbull
- Adrian Houser
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Toronto Blue Jays (-129) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Marlins – Sixto Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. We get a very inviting SP match-up on Wednesday. Ryu has really turned it around after a rough start to the 2020 season. Sanchez followed up his solid debut with a spectacular performance against the Rays. He struck out 10 while throwing 7 shutout innings. I do have some worries about his match-up here as he has shown extreme reverse splits so far at the MLB level.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 6 games.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 7 games.
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New York Mets (-137) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Michael Wacha
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. I love seeing this total as this game is on a 2 game early slate on DK and it’s paired with the SF/COL game so we get two games with big totals. Means has allowed 6 HRs in just 14.2 innings this season. Wacha has flashed some K upside this season but he has allowed 4 HRs in just 17 innings. Both SPs have been hit by RHBs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last 9 games.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-146)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has finally opened with a total set at 9.5. There is plenty of BvP history in this match-up with Berrios and Lopez taking the mound. The White Sox roster has a combined ISO of .191 (249 PAs) against Berrios while the Twins roster has a combined ISO of .290 (111 PAs) against Lopez.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: James McCann, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 6 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jake Cave
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last 6 games.
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Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – PPD COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – NA
Mariners -NA
Rundown:
PPD due to a member of the A’s traveling party testing positive.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last 5 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
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Detroit Tigers @ Milwaukee Brewers (-147)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I thought Houser was going to throw on Tuesday initially and I was all about him. I have to stay all about him, even after the Tigers scored 13 runs on Tuesday. The Tigers are striking out at a 29.1% rate against RHPs so far in 2020. Turnbull is an interesting option as the Brewers started out the season striking out a ton and then started making more contact. Detroit pitchers struck out 14 Brewers hitters on Tuesday with 11 of those K’s coming in the first 5.1 innings.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 5 games.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 7 games.
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Cleveland Indians (-162) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Royals – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Lindor is 16 for 32 with 8 extra-base hits (4 HRs) against Junis in his career. Over those 32 ABs, he has scored 11 runs and has 12 RBI. Keep in mind that he also HR’d on Tuesday night. McKenzie came back to earth in his 2nd start but still was solid. He has allowed 2 HRs out of the 5 hits he has given up so far so there are some worries. He is going to have growing pains as he missed all of 2019 with injuries.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 6 games.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-139)
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. A bit shocked to see the total at 10 as the Reds are averaging just 4 runs per game over their last 8. Oviedo hasn’t been amazing but he has been solid over his 2 starts. Mahle has 20 Ks in 83 ABs against this Cardinals roster. I assume part of the total is taking weather into consideration plus the small ballpark.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 8 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 8 games.
Washington Nationals (-121) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. The Phillies roster has a K rate of 35.5% in their careers against Scherzer. I have some worries about Scherzer here as the Phillies are swinging the bat pretty well over the last 10 days. Scherzer has 4 starts with 1 run or less allowed but he also has 3 starts with 4 or more runs allowed.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 over the last 6 games.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 over the last 6 games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-109)
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Charlie Morton
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. Morton is making his return from the IL here so expect to see him very limited as the Rays tend to really baby their SPs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him capped at 60 pitches but there is no official word yet. Montgomery has been decent but hasn’t flashed any kind of upside yet this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Michael Brosseau
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 8 games.
Atlanta Braves (-152) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Robbie Erlin
Red Sox – Mike Kickham
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 11 runs. This is where we are going to want to get bats, yet again. I am not sure what’s been up with games at Fenway recently but we are seeing some impressive totals in Boston. Erlin has been serviceable as an SP, which has kind of come out of nowhere. Kickham is making his first MLB appearance since 2014. He wasn’t very good overall in Triple-A last season so we shouldn’t expect much from him here.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last 6 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (-131)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 12.5. I am glad that this game isn’t on the main slate. The Giants came into Tuesday night with a team OBP of .298 over the previous week and then they just happened to put up 23 runs on 27 hits. Colorado’s bats have been pretty cold but it’s only a matter of time before they explode when at home. Webb has been solid this season and he actually has shown some reverse splits.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Put up just a paltry 23 runs on Tuesday night.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 6 games.
Chicago Cubs (-210) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Pirates – Derek Holland ***UPDATED*** Joe Musgrove will start for the Pirates (not stretched out)
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. The Pirates have had success against Hendricks but they just aren’t very good. Holland has been knocked around this season and has given up 10 HRs in just 28.1 innings. He has had success against most of the Cubs lineup but he just gives up a ton of hard contact (he does have 31 Ks so far this season).
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Jose Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .289 over the last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last 8 games.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-221)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
The game has a total set at 9 runs. Javier has flashed upside in his rookie season but is pretty raw. His K numbers haven’t jumped off the page since his first start as he has just 5 Ks in each of his last 4 starts. He is an extreme flyball pitcher and we know that can lead to HRs (think about Mike Fiers). He has allowed 6 HRs over his last 18.1 innings. Allard has allowed 12 runs over his last 9 innings (3 starts). He has control issues as he has 10 walks in 18 innings.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last 5 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last 4 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8 runs. I love this SP match-up as you guys are very familiar with my love of Zac Gallen. He’s set an MLB record for most consecutive starts to begin his MLB career of allowing 3 runs or less (23 straight). Buehler was electric in his last start and then managed to end up on the IL with a blister issue.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last 5 games.
LAD5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 6 games.
San Diego Padres (-168) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Angels – Julio Teheran
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Teheran has been extremely bad in LA so far this season. He has allowed 30 baserunners in 17.2 innings while allowing 18 runs and 6 HRs. This just seems like a terrible spot for him as the Padres are swinging it as hot as any team in baseball. Lamet has allowed 3 runs or less in every start this season. He is a flyball pitcher but one that racks up strikeouts as he has 51 in 38.1 innings this season while allowing just 4 HRs.
SD 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over the last 7 games.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
-
- San Diego Padres
- Cleveland Indians
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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