Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Shane Bieber
- Kenta Maeda
- Lucas Giolito
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Let me start this off by saying I am a HUGE Twins fan. This is the match-up that I was hoping they would get in the first round. Greinke has been very pedestrian on the road this season and he has given up 3+ earned runs in each of his last 7 starts. Maeda has allowed an average of just .109 at home this season. That number is insanely low as he has allowed just 7 runs in 33 IP at Target Field this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 5 games.
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Chicago White Sox (-126) @ Oakland Athletics
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Lucas Giolito did his best work on the road in 2020 and now gets to face an OAK squad that has scored just 22 runs over their last 7 games. Luzardo’s last tune-up before the postseason did NOT treat him very well as he got smacked around by the Dodgers. He draws a very tough spot here as the White Sox have a ton of power against LHPs in their lineup. The White Sox had a team ISO of .238 against LHPs in 2020.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 7 games.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-182)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker
Rays – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 7 runs. Snell made 2 starts against TOR this season but managed just 7.2 IP in those two starts. He was limited a TON early in the season as he allowed just 2 runs and struck out 14 in those 2 starts. He had 32 Ks in 21 IP at home this season. Shoemaker draws the start, somewhat surprisingly as I thought Ryu was locked into the 1st spot for them. Shoemaker is a wild card as he can give up HRs but he also can get easy outs and limit hard contact. He made 3 starts against TB this season and allowed 6 earned runs in 15 IP while striking out 17.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Lourdes Gurriel Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 7 games.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last 6 games.
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New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians (-105)
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 6.5 runs. Bieber gave up 7 HRs this season and 6 of them came to RHBs. That’s a key number to me as the Yankees are loaded with RH power. We should see a really tough, pitcher’s duel here in general as power pitching generally dominates the postseason. Cole has the postseason experience while Bieber had the better season (even though Cole really turned it on down the stretch).
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 7 games.
Mini Stacks of the Day:
- Brandon Lowe-Randy Arozarena-Joey Wendle
- Nelson Cruz-Eddie Rosario-Max Kepler
- Tim Anderson-Jose Abreu-Eloy Jimenez (If he returns to the lineup)
Playoff Prediction of the Day:
Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole get locked into a 2-1 pitcher’s duel where all 3 runs are scored via HRs.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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