(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – September 16th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Jacob deGrom
  • Gerrit Cole
  • Tyler Anderson

Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above?  Come join the fun!

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Atlanta Braves (-166) @ Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Cole Hamels

Orioles – Keegan Akin

Rundown:  

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5.  Akin was rocked in his last start and now he gets an extremely dangerous offense.  The Braves should continue to be one of the top stacks today.  Hamels is making his 2020 debut but we should probably temper our expectations as I would guess he throws 3-4 innings here as he gets his work in leading up to the postseason.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr

4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last 7 games.

BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle

4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Jose Iglesias

GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 7 games.


Cleveland Indians @ Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers:

Indians – Aaron Civale

Cubs – Jon Lester

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. We will want to know what kind of wind we are dealing with.  If the wind happens to be blowing out again, I think we could see some fireworks here, even though both teams are struggling a bit at the plate.  Civale has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his last 6 starts.  Lester has thrown 19 innings at home this season and has allowed 19 runs with 9 HRs!  Yeah, you read that correctly, 9 HRs allowed at home.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last 6 games.

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last 6 games.


Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies (-126)

Starting Pitchers:

Athletics – Mike Fiers

Rockies – German Marquez

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 12. We get to see an extreme fly ball pitcher pitch in Coors.  Fiers does not line up very well here as fly balls in Coors tend to go and go and go and keep going.  Marquez has allowed just 2 HRs in 31.1 home innings this season but he keeps allowing runs even though he’s coming off of his best home start in 2020.

OAK 5-star plays: Tommy La Stella

4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Matt Olson

GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 10 games.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story

4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 5 games.

 

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-225)

Starting Pitchers:

Pirates – JT Brubaker

Reds – Luis Castillo

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Castillo was dominant against PIT just two starts ago and he has allowed just 6 earned runs in 17 innings at home this season.  Brubaker has flashed decent stuff as an SP but this spot just doesn’t line up very well for him. The Reds power has woken up slightly, especially at home.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Colin Moran, Josh Bell

GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last 7 games.

CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto

4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Mike Moustakas

GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last 8 games.


New York Mets (-142) @ Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – Jacob deGrom

Phillies – Aaron Nola or Zack Wheeler?

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 7.5.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil

GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 5 games.

PHI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bryce Harper

GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 9 games.


Kansas City Royals (-130) @ Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Brady Singer

Tigers – Tarik Skubal

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  We get a match-up between a couple of young SPs who have some prospect hype attached to them.  The Royals bats REALLLLLLLY let us down on Tuesday night so I am going to go back to them here as I assume a bunch of people will hop off of them.

KC 5-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Maikel Franco, Salvador Perez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 6 games.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario

GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last 7 games.


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St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers – Game 1

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Adam Wainwright

Brewers – Brandon Woodruff

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

STL 5-star plays: Paul DeJong

4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 9 games.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Ryan Braun

GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 7 games.

 

St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers – Game 2

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Undecided

Brewers – Undecided

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

STL 5-star plays: Paul DeJong

4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 9 games.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Ryan Braun

GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 7 games.


Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-230)

Starting Pitchers:

Rangers – Kyle Gibson

Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  McCullers is making his return from the IL here so we probably only see him go around 4 innings.  He wasn’t very sharp prior to his IL stint so Texas could surprise with a few runs here.  I wouldn’t fully stack TEX but a couple of mini-stacks are intriguing to me.  Gibson has been really bad for TEX this season and I think the Astros start to heat up as they get healthier.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman

GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 7 games.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer

GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 6 games.

 

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San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners (played IN SF)

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – Tyler Anderson

Mariners – Ljay Newsome

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. This game is being played in SF after Tuesday night’s game was PPD due to air quality.  This is an interesting thing as it allows Anderson to pitch at home, even as a visitor.  He has HUGE home/road splits so far with the Giants.  Newsome isn’t anything special but I do think this game ends up being an avoid for the most part, unless Vegas comes out with some crazy total.

SF 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Brandon Belt

GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 6 games.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ty France, Dylan Moore

GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 6 games.


Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-176)

Starting Pitchers:

Nationals – Austin Voth

Rays – Peter Fairbanks/Josh Fleming

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  The Rays bats should be in a good spot here as Voth has really struggled this season.  I am going to be all about them in early action.  I hate the opener thing as Fleming had been starting in a traditional sense for a bit now but now we see an RHP open up before him.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Trea Turner

GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 5 games.

TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Manuel Margot

GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 5 games.


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-259)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Tanner Roark

Yankees – Gerrit Cole

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5.  I think Cole is really getting it figured out and that’s not a good sign for a struggling Toronto lineup.  His K upside should be through the roof here.  Roark is in a bad spot as the Yankees lineup is waking up and is coming off of a 20 run performance on Tuesday night.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr

GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last 5 games.

NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres

4-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu

GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 6 games.


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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Dustin May

Padres – Chris Paddack

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.  This is an interesting SP match-up as it’s a couple of very young pitchers, who I use a ton, but I get let down by them quite a bit as well.  May throws extremely hard and his sinker has a ton of movement but he pitches to contact a bit more than he should because of how excellent his stuff is.  Paddack teases us with strong starts and then follows them up with some early blow-ups.

LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager

4-star plays: Mookie Betts

GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last 6 games.

SD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Manny Machado

GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over the last 6 games.


Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins (-160)

Starting Pitchers:

Red Sox – Mike Kickham

Marlins – Trevor Rogers

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  Houck made his debut on Tuesday for BOS and completely shut down this Miami squad.  Both of these SPs are ones who have flashed some upside but also have shown to get lit up in their MLB careers.  I am very intrigued by the Red Sox offense against the young LHP in Rogers.

BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Bobby Dalbec

GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 6 games.

MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Aguilar

4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starling Marte

GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last 9 games.


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-148)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Jake Odorizzi

White Sox – Lucas Giolito

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 8.5.  Jake Odorizzi is supposed to be making his return from the IL here but we need to wait for the official word.  Giolito has made 2 starts against MIN and has allowed 11 runs (9 earned) in 8.2 innings while striking out 11 and allowing 3 HRs.  This game is extremely important for the Twins as the White Sox have opened up a 3 game lead in the central.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Max Kepler

GPP Note: Team ISO of .313 over the last 6 games.

CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson

4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu

GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 6 games.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Caleb Smith

Angels – Dylan Bundy

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  Bundy gets a great spot as the D’Backs lack any kind of real punch from the right side and he offers reversed splits.  Caleb Smith flashes upside but he walks so many guys.  I would expect him to throw around 5 innings if all goes well for him but the match-up stinks as the top of this LA lineup is capable of doing damage to LHPs.

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christian Walker, Kole Calhoun

GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last 6 games.

LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton

GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 6 games.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. New York Yankees
  3. Houston Astros

MLB Dinger of the Day – Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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