Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Trevor Bauer
- Corbin Burnes
- Clayton Kershaw
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Atlanta Braves (-161) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10.5 runs. We should see some offense in this game as both pitchers have allowed some runs in their appearances. Toussaint is making his return to the rotation and has flashed some upside, but with a game total so high, I just don’t see myself wanting exposure to the pitching here.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Cody Ponce
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. PIT is having a hard time deciding who will start when. Keep flipping back and forth between Ponce and Keller.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 5 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 6 games.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Reds – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 5 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 6 games.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Brewers – Josh Lindblom
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Kim is making his return from the IL and while he was pitching pretty well leading up to his IL stint, I am not sure what to expect from him as he returns. I would guess he could be limited innings wise and the Brewers have a couple of RHBs that are heating up. Lindblom has been pretty bad as an SP so far this season and he is getting smacked around HARD by LHBs.
STL 5-star plays: Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Brad Miller, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last 8 games.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jedd Gyorko, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 5 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last 8 games.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jedd Gyorko, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 5 games.
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Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. We should get a pretty strong pitcher’s duel here as the Mariners offense isn’t overly dangerous and Gonzales has been pitching EXTREMELY well for the Mariners. I prefer the A’s against RHPs as most of their RHBs actually prefer to face RHPs over LHPs. The A’s roster has a combined .309 wOBA against Gonzales in their careers.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 9 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 6 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Mike Minor
Mariners – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 9 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 6 games.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Kershaw has been fantastic overall, despite coming off of a hiccup in his last start. He gets a tough match-up here but I think he thrives in tougher, regular season, match-ups. Lamet has some nasty stuff but this Dodgers lineup should be littered with LHBs that can and have given him troubles.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .238 over the last 5 games.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last 5 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. If we see the Phillies with a watered-down lineup (injury issues), Lopez is going to be an EXTREMELY interesting option as he has put up some really strong numbers when at home in his MLB career. Velasquez is a guy that I can never get right, so at this point, I am going to say that I am about the Marlins bats.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Bryce Harper. Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 8 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 8 games.
Minnesota Twins (-130) @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9. This series is going to be intense as both teams are battling for the best record in the A.L. and obviously to win the Central Division. I am a bit shocked to see Berrios as a road favorite here but the Twins bats are heating up quite a bit. He just recently dominated this CWS lineup but that was at home. He started in Chicago earlier this season and was knocked around a bit.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .298 over the last 6 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 5 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Minnesota Twins
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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