Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Max Scherzer
- Michael Pineda
- Lance Lynn
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-202)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Yankees – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. The Orioles have a few guys with some very impressive histories against Happ but the team is struggling right now while the Yankees are starting to heat up. Happ allowed 4 runs in 4 innings against the Orioles earlier this season but his coming off of a 10 K performance against the Blue Jays and 3 starts ago he held the hot Mets offense to 0 runs. Means looked like the All-Star version of himself from last season in his last start. He allowed just 1 run to the Mets offense and struck out 5 while finally getting to throw nearly 100 pitches.
BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 7 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals (-138)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Keller has had two rough starts over his last 3 but we have to remember he was so strong prior to the bad couple of starts. He has allowed 0 runs in 3 starts and just 1 run-in another. He’s in a very good spot here, at home and against a weak Pirates offense. Kuhl has flashed some ability but his control issues are starting to show and he has been allowing an HR or two in his starts.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last 5 games.
KC 5-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Maikel Franco, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last 7 games.
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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals (-176)
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9. We get an extremely interesting situation here as the Braves offense is rolling at the plate but they now run into Max Scherzer. Right now, I am looking at having pieces of both sides as I just do not know which way to lean. Vegas obviously thinks very highly of Scherzer in this spot. Wright has great stuff but his control is absolutely terrible and that can lead to big innings, especially against a patient team.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .267 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 7 games.
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Cincinnati Reds (-106) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Mahle has given up 6 runs (3 HRs) in 10 innings against the Cardinals this season and there is some solid BvP in the Cardinals favor here. Martinez has been horrendous as an SP this season (he wasn’t well last season either). I was really shocked to see the total below 9 here.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Brian Goodwin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Brad Miller, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last 9 games.
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Oakland Athletics (-134) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I can’t believe how often Lynn ends up an underdog, even with how he’s been pitching this season. He has faced OAK twice and has allowed just 3 runs while striking out 15 across 12.1 innings. He has allowed just 8 earned run in 36 home innings while striking out 43 so far this season. Montas has been all over the place as he has been atrocious on the road so far in 2020. He has thrown 17 road innings and allowed 17 earned runs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 8 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Angels (-159) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rangers – Ryan Castellani
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 12.5 runs. Castellani has flashed some reversed splits so far in the majors and that is something that doesn’t set him up very well against the Mike Trout led Angels squad. Heaney has been solid but I do worry about his performance in Coors, against a very tough lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 7 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
Games will take place today after it was stated the test on Friday was a false positive. No Vegas information yet.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 games.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
Games will take place today after it was stated the test on Friday was a false positive. No Vegas information yet.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 games
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Marlins – Sixto Sanchez
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 8 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 8 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 8 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 8 games.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-176)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rays – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8 runs. This is a spot where TB should be pretty popular while we can’t really trust Charlie Morton yet as I expect him to be brought along slowly with an aim on the playoffs for having him stretched out. I think that BOS bats are in a sneaky, GPP spot here as I don’t think Morton is extremely sharp yet.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .268 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Michael Brosseau
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
White Sox – Jonathan Stiever
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
DET 5-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
4-star plays: Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 8 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 5 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-147)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. Dunn has been really strong in each of his last 3 starts and in 4 of his last 5. He gets a great match-up but this game has a decently high total and he is an underdog. Weaver looks like he is slowly turning things around so this might be a great time to jump on him for an upside type game. He was a guy that the Cardinals were extremely high on but they had to deal him in order to acquire Goldschmidt.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 7 games.
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays (-139)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. I am not sure what to do with Ryu against the hot Mets bats. On one hand, he gets the platoon advantage against most of the hot bats (L vs L), while on the other hand, those bats are hitting no matter what pitcher is on the mound (in terms of LH or RH). Peterson looked really bad in his last start as he had no control.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .293 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 6 games.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-133)
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Twins – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at just 8.5 runs. The Twins have won both games so far in this series, as underdogs. They are the favorite on Sunday and I think they get the sweet as Pineda has looked really strong while the Indians bats are ice freaking cold right now. This is going to be McKenzie’s first real test in my opinion and while he hasn’t allowed a ton of hits to this point, he has allowed an HR in 3 of his 4 starts and we saw MIN use the HR ball in the first two games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 over the last 6 games.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-139)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Houser allowed 3 runs in 5 innings against the Cubs earlier this season and has allowed 4+ earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. Even though they are the underdogs here, I want to have a healthy amount of Cubs stacks. Mills allowed 4 runs in 6 innings but struck out 7 against the Brewers earlier this season. He is coming off of his best start of the 2020 season, shutting down the Reds across 6 innings.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last 8 games.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 5 games.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Dodgers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. What a comeback by the Astros on Saturday night as they scored 1 in the 8th to cut it to a 3-run game and then scored 5 in the 9th against Jansen to pull off a win while Dodger fans were in the parking lot letting them know how much their cheating wasn’t appreciated.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 8 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: This roster has 14 HRs in 143 PAs against Greinke in their careers.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago Cubs
- Chicago White Sox
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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