Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Zac Gallen
- Tyler Glasnow
- Zach Plesac
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-170)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Kremer made his debut against the Yankees last week and has to follow up on his impressive performance against them, again. I expect them to be a little more prepared for his stuff and they should cut back on the K numbers that he was able to put up in that game. I can’t seem to figure out Montgomery as he flashes upside but he lacks consistency at this point.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 7 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals (-117)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. I respect Trevor Williams’ ability enough to not necessarily want to stack against him but some of this KC lineup looks to be turning it on as we head down the stretch (not that it should matter for any playoff chances). I don’t have much for information on Carlos Hernandez initially but I would expect KC to go with more of a bullpen game in this spot against a light-hitting Pirates lineup.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last 5 games.
KC 5-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Maikel Franco, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last 7 games.
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Atlanta Braves (-110) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9. The Braves have 18 HRs and 61 runs scored over their last 7 games. Corbin recently threw 5.1 innings against the Braves and allowed 13 baserunners and 5 runs in that game. He does get to face them at home here, where he has been FAR better this season. Anderson was extremely impressive in his MLB debut and then followed it up with a strong start but his control issues showed up in his most recent start as he only completed 3 innings. He’s another extreme groundball pitcher for the Braves with K upside so we have to consider him every time he’s on the mound.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .267 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Brock Holt, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 7 games.
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Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-135)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Tejay Antone
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Antone has been solid since entering the rotation as he has 11 Ks in 9 innings across his last 2 appearances. He has allowed 4 runs during that stretch with 2 HRs. He isn’t going to blow us away with a massive performance but he doesn’t have to at his price point. Hudson’s best two performances have come against CIN this season. In those 2 games, he has combined to put up 49.5 DK points while he has just 41.2 DK points in his other 4 games. He has 13 Ks in 11.2 innings against CIN with just 5 hits allowed.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last 9 games.
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Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Daulton Jefferies
Rangers – Nick Goody
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Jefferies is set to make his MLB debut and he offers some interesting upside. He’s been a high K-low BB kid in the minors. He has thrown 99.1 innings in the minors and has 121 Ks to go with just 12 walks. He has never gone more than 4 innings (only once has he gone more than 3.1 innings) in any minor league appearance but has primarily been a starter. The Rangers appear to be going with a bullpen game to start the doubleheader and I think we are going to see a lot of that for teams down the stretch with the games being just 7 innings.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 8 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last 7 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. This game gets the better SP match-up but I wonder if we see some regular bats get Game 2 off.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 8 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ Colorado Rockies (-122)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rangers – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 12.5 runs. I have liked the way that Barria has thrown the ball this season but his HR issue came back in his most recent start against HOU as he allowed 2. In 2019, Barria allowed 24 HRs in just 82.2 innings of work. Those numbers break down to roughly 2.6 HRs/9. Having an HR issue for a start at Coors Field tends to be a bad thing. Freeland has struggled mightily over his last 2 starts at home, allowing 8 runs on 19 hits in just 6.1 innings.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 7 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – COVID ISSUES
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
Potential COVID PPD game.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (-106)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Marlins – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Urena will be making his 2nd start of the season as he got a late start due to testing positive for COVID. He was serviceable in his first start but he had more walks than Ks in that performance. I think this game has a sneaky run-scoring upside. Howard has really struggled in his debut season but he at least gets to pitch away from home here, where his numbers have been better this season.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 8 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 8 games.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas Information. Boston has hit 16 HRs but has scored just 32 runs over their last 6 games. Eovaldi’s second-worst start of the season came against TB and now he faces them in his first game back from an IL stint with a calf issue. He has allowed 5 HRs in 22.1 innings on the road so far this season. Glasnow struggled in his one start against BOS as he allowed 10 baserunners and 5 runs in just 4 innings of work. I watched that game and he struggled with his command but he still managed to strike out 8. He has 36 K’s in just 19 home innings this season.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .268 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Fulmer/Daniel Norris
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Fulmer has just 2 scoreless starts this season (he’s been used as an opener and limited to 3 innings at most). One of those starts was against this White Sox squad, in a game that the Tigers won 5-1. I think the White Sox score a couple against him but I am more interested in them because of the LHP that is set to follow Fulmer. Lopez was sent down to the alternate site after getting knocked out against MIN in just 1.2 innings. He has thrown 9.2 innings at the MLB level this season and has allowed 11 runs on 14 hits.
DET 5-star plays: Victor Reyes
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 8 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 5 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-165)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Gallen has made 4 starts at home so far this season and has gone 26 innings while allowing just 6 runs and striking out 28. He has a 7 to 1 K to BB ratio at home so far in 2020. Sheffield has allowed more than 2 runs just 1 time over his last 5 starts. He has really stepped up and looked like the guy that was talked about so much, years ago.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 7 games.
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Seth Lugo
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Lugo has 20 Ks over his last 11.2 innings and looked solid in the rotation during his last outing. He gets a tough ballpark match-up but the Blue Jays offense has cooled a bit with Hernandez and Tellez heading to the IL. Ray just has no idea where the ball is going when he throws it right now as his walk rate is just through the roof. Walks against this Mets squad, the way they are swinging it right now, can lead to HUGE innings.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .293 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 6 games.
Cleveland Indians (-116) @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Twins – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at just 8.5 runs. Plesac has never faced the Twins, which I found to be extremely shocking. He has been extremely strong this season but this is a stress-filled series for both teams as we head down the stretch. The Twins lineup did enough (2 HRs) to beat Bieber on Friday so I don’t think they are extremely scared to face Plesac the following day. Rich Hill has been totally fine but he has control issues and I am always concerned about that, especially when a guy like him relies on location to fool hitters and get outs. He can’t miss his spots AND throw the ball by hitters.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 over the last 6 games.
Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Anderson has allowed 4 HRs in just 17.2 home innings this season and he took an L against the Cubs earlier, allowing 2 runs in 4.1 innings. He has allowed 4 runs in each of his last two starts. Hendricks has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts and if we remember back to the beginning of the season, he shut out the Brewers and K’d 9 while throwing 103 pitches right out of the gate to the season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last 8 games.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 5 games.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Urias has made 8 starts so far this season and has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of them. The 2 where he has allowed more than 2, both allowing 4 runs, have come over his last 3 starts. He is still being capped pitch-wise as he hasn’t gotten to the 80+ pitch mark in any of his last 4 starts and has just 2 starts over 79 pitches this season. Valdez is the opposite, he’s being allowed to throw 100+ pitches almost every time out it seems like. Last game he allowed 8 runs but still threw 7 innings and was allowed to throw 108 pitches.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 8 games.
LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 5 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago White Sox
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB Dinger of the Day – Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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