Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Jacob deGrom
- Lucas Giolito
- Shane Bieber
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Gerrit Cole just faced BAL and struck out 10 over 6 innings. He allowed just 1 earned run but the Orioles did score 5 runs total against him. He was rolling through the first 4 innings. The Ks have been there all season long but so have the HRs as he has allowed 13 HRs over 52 innings.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 8 games.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Keegan Akin has looked like he belongs at the MLB level so far as he has yet to allow an earned run over his first 13 innings. He does have some control issues but he did shut down the Yankees in his last appearance.
BAL 5-star plays: Rio Ruiz
4-star plays: DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 8 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals (-120)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Steven Brault
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Steven Brault has been serviceable and he is either on or he is way off. He has made 8 appearances so far and has allowed an earned run (3 of them at a minimum in each) in just 3 of his 8 appearances. He has actually started 7 games this season but only has 2 starts in which he has thrown more than 71 pitches. Much like Brault, Bubic hasn’t been as bad as some of his numbers suggest. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his 7 appearances and gets a pretty weak-hitting offense.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Erik Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last 7 games.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Maikel Franco, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 7 games.
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Atlanta Braves (-143) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Josh Tomlin
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 11. We get another shot at the red-hot Braves bats, in a game with a ridiculously high non-Coors game total. I have zero interest in either SP and will be looking at game stacks of this one. Thursday’s game saw 5 HRs hit (4 by the Braves) and 9 total extra-base hits.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .322 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Eric Thames
4-star plays: Brock Holt, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 7 games.
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Cincinnati Reds (-116) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. I love this pitching match-up as Castillo is coming off of his best start in a while and Wainwright is always a great option when he is pitching at home. Wainwright allowed 2 earned runs over 7 innings against Cincinnati earlier this season. There is some strong BvP in this game, so that is something to pay attention to.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last 9 games.
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Oakland Athletics (-165) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs. My initial thought is that I am torn on what to do with this game. Both of these pitchers are bad enough that there could be plenty of offense. On the other side of things, the Rangers just aren’t very good and the A’s just aren’t hitting very much right now. I am thinking I want some mini-stacks of OAK and then some one-offs from TEX just because of Mike Fiers’ potential HR issues.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 8 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ Colorado Rockies (-129)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rangers – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 12.5 runs. We get to see Mike Trout in Coors tonight and that is definitely intriguing. The Angels are getting contributions from some younger guys (Ward, Thaiss, Walsh) and of course, Trout is just smacking the ball around. I just don’t know what to do with the Rockies as they can struggle for extended periods but their RHBs are in an intriguing spot against Canning.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 7 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Matt Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-154)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Richards has been terrible at home as he has allowed 11 runs over 12.2 innings. He has allowed 23 baserunners and 3 HRs at PetCo. Cueto has allowed an average against of just .192 on the road so far this season but he faced the Padres earlier and gave up 4 runs in 3.2 innings.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies (-151) @ Miami Marlins – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 6 runs. Remember that this game is a 7 inning contest and while we do not know who the Marlins are going to go with at SP, we do see a total set at 6. I am seeing some rumors that the Marlins will go with an LHP, Trevor Rogers. Nola was smacked around by the Marlins in his first start of the season but has mostly been dominant since. He does have some pretty bad road splits in his career but he’s done decently on the road this season, especially if you ignore his start in Atlanta.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 7 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Undecided
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information for Game 2.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 7 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 7 games.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Andrew Triggs
Rays – Blake Snell
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas Information. Snell has 27 Ks in 15.2 innings at home this season and he struck out 6 in 5 innings against BOS earlier this season, while allowing 0 runs. He takes on an offense that is swinging it quite a bit better right now as Dalbec is on an HR tear. Triggs will probably be limited to around 75-80 pitches and while I think he is very attackable, the Rays hitters aren’t scorching. Triggs has leaned towards being a reverse splits pitcher for much of his MLB career and has been EXTREMELY reversed splits so far in 2020.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec
GPP Note: Team ISO of .268 over the last 7 games.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-260)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Giolito struck out 13 in 7 innings while allowing just 3 hits against the Tigers earlier this season. I don’t think he is going to match that performance but the upside is there. The Tigers have a few guys who are hitting the ball really well over the last week to 10 days. Mize has leaned slightly towards reverse splits so far in his debut season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 9 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Nick Madrigal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 5 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Diamondbacks – Caleb Smith
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Kikuchi has been all over the place as he is coming off of his 2nd and 3rd best starts of the season but he also has 3 starts in which he flirted with negative fantasy points. Smith is making his first start with the Diamondbacks but has had trouble with control for a long time, especially this season as he has 6 walks in 3 innings of work.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Nick Ahmed
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 7 games.
New York Mets (-196) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Such an interesting game here as deGrom is ALWAYS in a dominant spot but this park rewards flyballs and power. I still have to side with deGrom in my DFS contests but I do think this is one of those spots where I might use some TOR mini-stacks in some GPP builds.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis Shaw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last 7 games.
Cleveland Indians (-107) @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at just 6.5 runs. There is some weather in the forecast here but right now I think this game plays and we get 2 SPs who are throwing the ball EXTREMELY well. Great spot to target for pitching as long as the rain stays away, just enough.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last 7 games.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Woodruff is a guy that I can’t stop plugging into my builds. He has flashed upside so many times but he also has a manager that refuses to allow him to pitch through troubles in the 5th and 6th innings. He has made 2 starts against the Cubs this season and has gone just 9.1 innings while allowing 5 runs. Lester was smacked around by the Brewers for 5 runs in 6 innings earlier this season but he has been FAR better on the road so far in 2020.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 8 games.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Jedd Gyorko, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 5 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Pete Alonso, New York Mets
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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