Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw and the Dodgers are -300 favorites at home tonight. He made his debut after going on the IL opening night before he was scheduled to start against this Giants team. He isn’t the same pitcher that he used to be and that’s ok with me. His pitching IQ is thru the roof and he is able to get the outs we need and his strikeouts aren’t all that bad yet either.
- Chris Paddack – I did some looking around early this morning before finalizing this write-up and I see some people still talking about Kelly in this game. Paddack and the Padres are the favorites here and he is FAR cheaper on DK than Kelly is. If we get Paddack a bit lower owned, I am going to end up ecstatic. This game is going to end up with the lowest total on the board and right now Paddack is a -160 favorite. He absolutely dominated the Diamondbacks in 2019. He threw 16.2 innings and struck out 20 while allowing an avg against of just .197. He allowed just 2 runs in those 16.2 innings.
- Patrick Sandoval – I do have some worry about how long he will be allowed to go but he went 4 innings and threw 62 pitches in his first start of the season. He struck out 12 batters in 8.1 innings against TEX last season and he gets to face them in what appears to be a pitcher’s park and possibly without Gallo in the lineup (he was scratched last minute before Friday’s game).
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Tom Eshelman
Nationals – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game does not have a line or a total yet. Right now Eshelman is being listed as the SP but he just threw 3.1 innings on the 4th so I am not sure if they are bringing him back on just 3 days rest to open this game. Either way, he isn’t stretched out enough for my liking. Voth threw 70 pitches in his only appearance back on the 28th of July. He makes a lot of sense for GPPs as he has flashed some upside whenever he’s been given a chance to start.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No interest in BAL bats here as I will be interested in Voth.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Juan Soto, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Castro and Kendrick have been hot and Soto is now back from the COVID list. The lineup just got deeper.
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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
No line for this game yet but what a game this could be. Glasnow and Cole were former teammates in PIT and both had dominant seasons last year in the A.L. There could be a lot of strikeouts going down in this game. These teams have a combined 38 Ks in 103 PAs against the opposing SP.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Glasnow gives up more power to RHBs than LHBs
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Tampa Bay has scored just 15 runs over their last 7 games.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Undecided
Rays – Undecided
Rundown:
No line for this game yet but as we do not know who the SPs will be. I will be updating this in the morning.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note:
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note:
Atlanta Braves (-106) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 10 runs. Wright throws a lot of pitches in a very short time frame. He managed to get to 75 pitches in his most recent start but still only completed 3.1 innings and somehow gave up 0 runs, despite a WHIP of nearly 3.00. Velasquez was lit up by the Marlins, of all teams, in his season debut. He managed 3 innings over his 60 pitches so we probably see him approach 80 in this start. This game is all about the offenses for me.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: Braves had scored 37 runs over their previous 7 games, going into Thursday night.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Tough for the PHI bats to get in a groove when they keep getting games pushed back or PPD. The power looks to be in play here after the series against the Yankees and we know Wright allows a lot of baserunners.
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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-112)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Ivan Nova
Pirates – Derek Holland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I am watching the Friday night contest and it’s up to 24 runs scored. Just what we thought would happen! (I am totally kidding). Congrats to you if you stacked that game! Detroit bats intrigue me some as they have a few guys that have done some damage against LHPs in their careers or this season already. Holland has some K upside in his arm and might be worth a sneaky GPP dart. Nova just isn’t in play for me even though I don’t like much from the PIT side of things.
DET 5-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, JaCoby Jones
GPP Note: Had scored just 16 runs over their last 7 games but have 12 runs on Friday night through 9 innings (going to extras).
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Philip Evans
GPP Note: ISO of just .138 over their last 4 games heading into Friday night but are going to end up scoring 12+.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Josh Smith/Sterling Sharp
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
No line for this game yet this morning. Looks like the Marlins are going to go with an opener and a long-reliever. Both of these pitchers could go around 2-3 innings by the looks of it. Both Marlins arms are right-handed. I am a fan of Peterson as he has made 2 strong starts on the road so far, against tough offenses. There is definitely some upside in his arm against a weakened Marlins offense.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: I do think a mini-stack of MIA bats makes sense in GPPs. They are similar to BAL for me as I like them more when they get to face an LHP.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: The Mets have scored 27 runs over their last 8 games
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Rundown:
No line for this game yet. There is plenty of HR potential here as Anderson is coming off of the IL and Godley has given up plenty of HRs over the years to RHBs. This was a popular game to target on Friday night and it’s going to be again on Saturday. I expect it to end up with a double-digit run total O/U.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Just 13 runs scored over their last 5 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: The Boston roster has 15 hits against Anderson and 9 of them have gone for extra-bases. Cumulative ISO of .364 against him.
Minnesota Twins (-170) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Jake Odorizzi
Royals – Danny Duffy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Odorizzi is making his 2020 debut as a sizeable road favorite. I wouldn’t expect much out of him as he is returning from an upper back issue. I would guess he goes 4 innings or so but we will need to pay attention to the official word. The Twins have seen Duffy plenty and while he is coming off of a strong start, he is still 0-2 thru 3 starts this season. I always love the Twins against LHPs but I really wish Donaldson was healthy.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Cruz is 7 for 21 with 3 HRs against Duffy
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Merrifield is 8 for 16 with 3 HRs against Odorizzi.
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Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
White Sox – Matt Foster/Ross Detwiler
Rundown:
Still no line for this game but we do get word that the White Sox will run out an opener first and then follow him with an LH long-reliever. I keep waiting for a huge bust out game from the Indians offense with all the power that they have. At some point, Carlos Santana, Reyes, and Domingo Santana are going to start hitting the ball hard. Plesac offers some K upside against a very hot and cold White Sox offense. The White Sox could be without guys like Grandal, Encarnacion, and Anderson in this one.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: C
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Have scored 34 runs over the last 7 games.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-106)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Anthony DeSclafani
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
This game opened with a run total of just 8.5 runs. DeSclafani looked sharp in his start against DET as he shut them out thru 5 innings while throwing just 63 pitches. He should be able to get around 80 in this game. The Brewers offense has not been rolling at all but it does look like Christian Yelich is starting to heat up. Anderson is an LHP and that plays into my love of guys like Castellanos, Suarez, and Davidson.
CIN 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Matt Davidson, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Castellanos is up to 7 HRs to go with his .840 slugging %.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Brewers offense over the last 7 days has just 10 runs.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rundown:
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Ponce de Leon has flashed some reverse splits at the MLB level so far.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The Cardinals had a COVID issue
Los Angeles Angels (-141) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I am always drawn to Sandoval as he has flashed some ability and now he gets to take on a pretty weak TEX offense. They couldn’t muster much overall last night, even with Canning walking 6 guys early on. This ballpark is going to keep the runs down and I think some people still see TEX at home and think there are going to be offensive fireworks.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Max Stassi
GPP Note: Mike Trout flashing that dad strength now
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Todd Frazier
GPP Note: Team has 17 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-130)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Valdez threw an absolute gem in relief in his last appearance as he completely shut down the Angels in 6.1 innings while striking out 8. He threw 86 pitches so there shouldn’t be a question about how stretched out he will be. He gets an OAK squad that I think is better against RHPs at this point. Montas has an electric arm and is the favorite here. The ballpark is very solid for pitching, minus the suppressed strikeouts due to the gigantic foul areas. He allowed just 3 runs in 11.1 innings against HOU in 2019.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team has 11 HRs over the last 7 days.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. This SP match-up is extremely intriguing to me. I can’t believe how expensive Kelly is on DK. He has given up 3 HRs in 13.2 innings so far this season so we could see the HR ball be important. Paddack seems to be undervalued as he is just $7900 on DK as a sizeable favorite.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Just 44 Ks as a team over their last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over their last 6 games
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-300)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5 runs and the Dodgers are MASSIVE home favorites here. Kershaw was extremely sharp in his debut and managed to fire 81 pitches in 5.2 innings. He struck out 6 and allowed just 3 hits. The Giants’ roster as a whole has an ISO of .057 in their careers against Kershaw. Cueto hasn’t fared all too well against the Dodgers lineup but he did look solid against them in the season opener. I think they get to him earlier at this point and they have a ton of power upside.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: 26 extra-base hits over their last 8 games
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: The Dodgers roster is hitting .302 across 159 ABs against Cueto in their careers
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners (-108)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Mariners – Nick Margevicious
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Rockies are calling up Castellani to make his debut in this one. He was really bad last season so I don’t expect much out of him and think that brings some SEA bats into play. Colorado is a solid team to target when they are facing LHPs, especially when its one that their roster has a combined ISO of .432 against in 46 PAs.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Blackmon is 5 for 8 with 3 HRs against Margevicious
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Just 21 runs with 63 Ks over their last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers bats came alive in the HR department last night as they hit up this Giants staff for 4 HRs. As a team, they have 15 HRs over their last 6 games and 26 total on the season (14 games). They are now up to 19 extra-base hits in 5 games against SF so far this season.
- Colorado Rockies: Generally I like to avoid the Rockies on the road, especially the first game after leaving Coors. I was on them last night because I just don’t think highly of the SEA staff and I want to be on them again tonight. They are facing an LHP who they have a decent amount of experience against as he used to pitch for SD. As a roster, the Rockies have an ISO of .432 against Margevicius in their careers.
- Toronto Blue Jays: Right back to TOR for me. I can’t quit this lineup as they are dangerous. They let me down overall against Weber last night but I am willing to ignore that. Godley has given up a lot of HRs to RHBs over the years and that is one thing the Blue Jays have, power from RHBs.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nicholas Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds
Castellanos finished 2019 with an ISO of .343 against LHPs. He has started out 2020 with an ISO of .400 against LHPs. He has 5 HRs and an ISO of .615 over the last 7 games. He is 3 for 9 in his career against Anderson, who is now nowhere near the pitcher he was just a few years ago. In 2019, 7 of his 11 hits against MIL went for extra-bases. Some times I just think that people forget about Castellanos when they are building lineups. He’s a spectacular one-off option.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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