Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Trevor Bauer – Huge strikeout guy who takes on a team that is struggling to score runs. The spot is way too inviting for me to ignore. The Brewers did bust out a bit and score 8 runs on Thursday but they still struck out 10 times in that game and have been striking out a TON so far this season.
- Julio Urias – Urias was allowed to reach the 90 pitch mark in his most recent start and you have NO idea how happy I am to see that. I have been waiting on him for years now (both as a baseball fan and an owner of him in Dynasty). He and the Dodgers are the largest favorites on the slate and it’s not even close as it sits at -260 this morning.
- Griffin Canning – We know that the TEX offense is struggling and that this TEX ballpark has been built to take offense away when compared to the old ballpark and its jet stream to RCF. The pitching atmosphere is the big selling point for me to go along with Canning’s overall ability.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals (-179)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Tommy Milone
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
The game opened with a run total set at 9. Sanchez has been off for a bit so he could struggle with sharpness but he has such a great match-up here as the Orioles just aren’t dangerous, especially against RHPs. I think that Milone is in a bit of trouble as the return of Soto really helps the Nationals lineup that has watched Castro and Kendrick heat up.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No interest in BAL bats here as I will be interested in Sanchez.
WAS 5-star plays: Starlin Castro
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Castro and Kendrick have been hot and Soto is now back from the COVID list. The lineup just got deeper.
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New York Yankees (-106) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Rays – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8.5. This game is really interesting to me. I am shocked to see the Yankees a favorite on the road, taking on Blake Snell. The more I dig in the more that I can start to see it as the TB offense is ice cold right now. I have no idea what to expect from Blake Snell as they have brought him along extremely slowly to begin the season. Sounds like his ceiling is 5 innings and that just doesn’t excite for the price and match-up that we have to deal with. Tanaka is in a similar spot as he threw just 51 pitches in his season debut after getting drilled by a line drive in an intrasquad game.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Sanchez is 5 for 19 with 4 HRs and a 2B against Snell in his career.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Tampa Bay has scored just 14 runs over their last 6 games.
Atlanta Braves (-106) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 10 runs. Wright throws a lot of pitches in a very short time frame. He managed to get to 75 pitches in his most recent start but still only completed 3.1 innings and somehow gave up 0 runs, despite a WHIP of nearly 3.00. Velasquez was lit up by the Marlins, of all teams, in his season debut. He managed 3 innings over his 60 pitches so we probably see him approach 80 in this start. This game is all about the offenses for me.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: Braves had scored 37 runs over their previous 7 games, going into Thursday night.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Tough for the PHI bats to get in a groove when they keep getting games pushed back or PPD. The power looks to be in play here after the series against the Yankees and we know Wright allows a lot of baserunners.
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Detroit Tigers (-116) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Pirates – Chad Kuhl/Steven Brault
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Boyd hasn’t been very sharp to begin this season but we know what kind of upside he offers when things click. He has high-K upside and it’s going to be somewhat rare to see him as a favorite, especially on the road. Kuhl threw 58 pitches in his first appearance but only 28 in his next. I am not sure what kind of a pitch total we see out of him but I would assume it’s not much more than 70. *UPDATE* I am seeing that Kuhl will open and Brault will follow as the long-man.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Have scored just 16 runs over their last 7 games
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: ISO of just .138 over their last 4 games
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Mets – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has no line or total as of late Thursday night. Alcantara’s only start came on July 24th so he has had some time off while the Marlins have barely played. That can’t be easy on SPs who are so used to routines. Wacha looked solid in his first start but then struggled in his second start. I think this game ends up lower-scoring as I think the Mets lineup is obviously better but right now I would say that Alcantara is the better pitcher.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: 18 of the 26 HRs Wacha allowed in 2019 came to RHBs
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: The Mets have scored 26 runs over their last 7 games
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Red Sox – Ryan Weber
Rundown:
There is no line or total for this game yet. The entire Blue Jays MLB is a combined 10 for 23 against Weber (small sample but still a strong performance). Weber has allowed 10 hits and 7 walks through 7 innings so far. He has yet to strike out a batter. Roark hasn’t pitched since the 28th of July due to all the off-days and COVID ppd games.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Just 10 runs scored over their last 4 games.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Bogaerts is 3 for 3 vs Roark and he is 10 for 23 over his last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins (-164) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Royals – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Smeltzer has been pretty rough but hasn’t been used as a regular starter yet this season. He probably only throws around 60 pitches in this one. Junis has a really tough match-up in this one as the Twins have had success against him and they are loaded with power. He should throw around 80-85 pitches as this is his second start of the season.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over their last 7 games
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: The 3 above are 15 for 35 against LHPs so far in 2020.
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Cleveland Indians (-106) @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 9 runs. Cease has a big-time arm but he struggles to harness it. He has struggled against LHBs in his short MLB career and the Indians have a few of them at the top that can do a lot of damage. Civale has 18 Ks over his first 12 innings this season so he has shown us some solid upside. He is a road favorite so I do think he makes sense for GPPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Cease struggles a LOT with LHBs. 12 of the 18 HRs he has allowed at the MLB level have been to LHBs.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Leury Garcia, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Have scored 32 runs over the last 6 games.
Cincinnati Reds (-126) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. The Brewers offense has been really bad and that’s a great thing for Bauer to see. I love Bauer’s upside but the issue becomes his lack of consistency. He has made two starts this season and has K’d 20 in 13.1 innings. The problem is that both of those starts came against a very weak Detroit Tigers lineup. Lauer has made just one appearance this season, out of the bullpen, and threw just 46 pitches. That means he probably isn’t going to do much more than 4 innings as a max.
CIN 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Over the last 7 days, Castellanos and Senzel are a combined 12 for 34 with 8 extra-base hits.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Brewers offense over the last 7 days has just 7 runs and a 34% K rate (going into Thursday night).
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rundown:
This game has no line or total yet. The Cardinals will send out Ponce de Leon, who I actually think is a very good MLB pitcher but he has some issues as shown in his last appearance. He struck out 8 in 3.2 innings but needed 85 pitches to get there and walked 3 while allowing 3 runs. Lester has looked solid to start the season but his K numbers are way down right now. He should be able to approach 100 pitches at this point.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Ponce de Leon has flashed some reverse splits at the MLB level so far.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The Cardinals had a COVID issue so we have to see who is in the lineup. Goldschmidt has had Lester’s number in his career.
Los Angeles Angels (-156) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Canning is coming off of a VERY strong performance against the Astros in his last start. He has thrown 82 and 86 pitches in his first two starts. Lyles looked extremely rusty in his first start of the season as it took him 78 pitches to complete 4 innings. He walked 5 batters and allowed 3 hits against the Giants.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Max Stassi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last 6 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo
GPP Note: Team has 19 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-106)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 9 runs. Greinke has looked pretty average so far in 2020. I know he had a solid outing against the Angels his last time out but he just isn’t pitching very efficiently and the Ks aren’t there. The A’s have struck out 74 times over their last 7 games so there is an upside. He dominated OAK last season, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits in 13 innings of work. Bassitt has looked extremely sharp to begin the season but the Astros did get to him for 10 runs and 3 HRs over 18 innings last season. He is the favorite in this game and the park is built for pitching (minus the K suppression).
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: George Springer, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: Team has 10 HRs over the last 7 games
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-122)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Padres – Joey Lucchesi ***UPDATE*** SD will start Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Weaver has really struggled so far this season. He has 11 Ks in 7.1 innings but he has allowed 14 hits to go with 5 walks. I am a huge fan of his but he just looks bad out on the mound and at this point I have to take a wait and see approach with him. Lucchesi has struggled as well. He hasn’t topped 61 pitches in either of his starts. With how both SPs have struggled to get started this season, I am really shocked to see the total sit at just 8.5. ** UPDATE** With the decision to start Zach Davies, I can see why the total is at just 8.5 runs.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Just 33 Ks as a team over their last 6 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over their last 6 games
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-260)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Jeff Samardzija
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 9 runs. Urias started his 2020 season with a solid 5 inning outing against these Giants. He reached the 90 pitch mark in his next start, a win against ARI. I am really excited about the fact that he threw 90 pitches in that game. The Dodgers have babied him for years so I hope we get to see him unleashed a bit (shot in the dark, given how Roberts manages). Samardzija has given up 10 runs in 9.2 innings so far this season and has racked up as many walks as strikeouts, 2.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: 23 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: 16 HRs over their last 7 games
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game opened as a pick’em with a total set at 9 runs. Senzatela has looked extremely sharp through 2 starts this season. He gets to face a team that has an ISO of just .577 over their last 7 games. Things line up extremely well for him here so with the way things have gone, I expect SEA to score 8 in the first 3 innings! I really don’t expect that but some of the best spots for pitching so far have really let us down this season. I can’t figure Kikuchi out. He looks horrendous for starts and then he flashes the excellence that had the MLB interested in bringing him over from Japan. He was absolutely dominant against Oakland in his most recent start, which was at home.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 7 games
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Just 21 runs with 63 Ks over their last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Wright has a WHIP of 2.67 so far this season. He has faced 35 batters over his two starts and allowed 16 of them to reach base. This is a PRIME spot, especially after he allowed 0 runs against TOR, even though he allowed 9 baserunners.
- Toronto Blue Jays: Very similar to Wright, Weber just hasn’t fooled anybody. He has faced 38 batters so far this season and has allowed 17 baserunners while striking out exactly 0 hitters. The TOR offense has let me down a bit the last couple of times that I have been on them but this is just too great of a spot for the hitters.
- Atlanta Braves: The Braves are actually favored in the game against PHI but I just feel like PHI has a shot to have a lot more action on the basepaths. The game has a total of 10 at this point so we could see some fireworks from both sides. A game stack certainly makes sense.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies
I wanted to get a little off-the-wall here and I think Gregorius is that guy. He has an OPS of .961 at home so far this season. He has zero personal histories against Wright so I have to base it off of a gut feeling. The obvious answers for HRs from PHI here are Harper, Realmut0, Hoskins, and Jay Bruce. Didi has a ridiculous ISO of .357 against Curves from RHPs.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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