Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Jesus Luzardo – Luzardo is an elite MLB pitching prospect with an enormous ceiling. He gets to face a Texas lineup that has scored just 27 runs in 8 games so far this season. He and the A’s are a -150 favorite, which might not seem like a lot, but he is facing Lance Lynn (who has been absolutely dominant to start the season).
- Patrick Corbin – Corbin and his impressive K rate get to take on a Mets offense that relies a TON of on LHBs. The Mets just lost Cespedes to a random, walk-away from the season. Mets batters have an overall ISO of just .131 on the season and Corbin had great K numbers against them last season.
- Cristian Javier – Javier was extremely impressive in his debut against the Dodgers but did look to hit a wall in his last inning. He threw 82 pitches in that start and picked up 8 Ks. He has had a MASSIVE K rate throughout his minor league stops and while he is going to experience ups and downs at the MLB level (downs mostly because of his extreme fly-ball rate), I think he has an extremely bright future and I love using guys like this while they are still value priced.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cleveland Indians (-165) @ Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Bieber has been absolutely spectacular so far this season and I don’t see him slowing down here in this Ohio match-up. Mahle managed 69 pitches in his first start of the season so he should see a jump into the mid-80s to around 90 pitches. He’s a sneaky option as the Indians offense isn’t exactly rolling at the plate. This is an earlier start time (seems to be normal for the state of Ohio).
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Linder
GPP Note: Mahle has had his troubles with LHBs at the MLB level.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: 8 of Castellanos’ 13 hits have gone for extra-bases so far in 2020.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees – PPD DUE TO WEATHER
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies –
Yankees –
Rundown:
Re-scheduled as a Doubleheader on Wednesday
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: NA
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: NA
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (-169)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
The game has opened with a run total of 9 runs. Atlanta was just shut down by deGrom so they definitely get a match-up upgrade against Shoemaker. Shoemaker can give up some HRs at times but he has some K upside in his arm as well. Fried has been at his best when at home for the Braves. The Braves pen was used a bit on Monday night after Soroka struggled and then tore his Achilles.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Hernandez and Gurriel are swinging solid bats and Gurriel was great against LHPs in 2019
ATL 5-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: The Braves are so hit or miss and it’s frustrating to see as this lineup should consistently do damage. Just wait until Acuna and Albies start clicking.
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Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers (-118)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs and I can honestly see that number moving down as the day goes on. Giolito was torched by the Twins but then bounced back and shut down the Indians. He gets to face the weakest offense of the three in this one so he certainly could flash the massive upside he showed us last season. Woodruff started the season a bit rough in the early innings of his first start but then started clicking and followed it up with a dominant performance against a weak PIT lineup.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: The White Sox are at their best against RHPs but Woodruff is really good. I think I would go mini-stacks of the White Sox over full stacks.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Giolito has strong ability and this Brewers lineup is really weak at this point. Yelich did pick up a multi-hit game on Monday night but he’s been atrocious. Always upside in the middle of this lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins (-206)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Joe Musgrove
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
Rich Hill was slated to start for the Twins but the word is that he is being placed on the IL with a back issue. Musgrove has flashed strong ability but he has one very big issue and it’s an issue that could really hurt him in this contest. He has trouble keeping the ball in the park. He’s an equal opportunity HR employer as he allows both sides of the plate to drive the ball out of the park. The Twins offense kind of let me down on Monday night against an LHP so this is a spot for them to pay me back. Berrios will get the ball for the Twins, which really makes me not interested in the PIT bats at this point.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Just don’t think very highly of the Pirates bats
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: The Twins have 15 HRs against RHPs so far this season
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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs (-186)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
The game has a total set at 8 runs as of this morning. The wind played a huge role in Monday night’s game as it was blowing straight in from CF. If we get wind blowing in again, both of these SPs are definitely going to be on my shortlist. I love Singer’s future as he has looked solid at the MLB level. Singer has allowed just 2 runs in each of his first two starts and has 10 Ks in 10 innings. If the wind is blowing out at all, I might be afraid of Singer slightly as he did allow 2 HRs in his last start, against DET.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27.5% rate against RHPs so far this season
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 against RHPs this season
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
Marquez is a very good SP but he has had problems with the Giants hitters in his career. He has upside and I think he becomes an option here, even at Coors. While his numbers overall haven’t been great at home, his K numbers actually take a jump up when pitching at Coors. Gausman was once a very coveted arm around baseball but he’s bounced around the last year+ and now has to deal with Kapler as his manager. He struck out 8 in his most recent start against SD but he did allow 3 runs in 4.1 innings. Gausman has never thrown in Coors.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: The SF roster is hitting .407 in 90 PA’s against Marquez in their careers.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Matt Kemp, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Kemp getting playing time and producing is great to see. I hope he puts up strong numbers this season. Blackmon is my favorite Rockies hitter right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
There were 5 HRs hit in Monday night’s game and that game featured a better pitching combo than tonight’s game. We see a total for this game set at 8.5 runs after being at 7.5 for Monday night. Lamet traditionally has struggled most with LHBs but this season he has absolutely dominated them. I expect some regression in that category and we know how dangerous the LAD LHBs are. May is a highly touted arm but has had issues with LHBs so far. The good news for him is that SD is mostly RH at this point.
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
GPP Note: One of the guys above will hit an HR in this spot but which one? Pederson and Bellinger went deep Monday night.
SD 5-star plays: Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Trent Grisham might be the MVP of the Padres through the first 11 games (hit his 4th HR of the season Monday night)
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Los Angeles Angels (-185) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 9. It is being said that Trout will be activated for this game and we might see the MLB debut of Jo Adell as he was called up on Monday. Ohtani injured himself pitching again and won’t be throwing for a month but he is said to be day-to-day when it comes to DH duties. I am not sure how we can trust Heaney with Maddon as his manager at this point. He has thrown just 67 and 64 pitches in his starts so far. He really should have been around 80 in start #2 and looking at 95-100 in this start. Dunn’s only appearance this season came against LAA and he threw 65 pitches in 3 innings and allowed an HR to go with 3 walks.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Brian Goodwin
GPP Note: I think the Angels have a monster game in them during this series. Trout could come back energized before he realizes what newborn’s do to your sleep pattern.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, JP Crawford, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are the only one’s really doing anything for SEA at this point. You could add Shed Long to the list as well but I don’t expect him to start against an LHP.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rays – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. That tells that they think that Morton has figured things out and that Eovaldi should be serviceable yet again. Both of these guys flash big-time K upside but Morton is just the better overall pitcher. Morton looked like himself last game as he picked up 8 Ks in 5 innings. The issue is he has thrown just 80 pitches in both starts. He gets a lineup that is struggling overall, minus Xander Bogaerts basically. The Rays lineup has sneaky upside but so does Eovaldi with his K ability.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Xander is 10 for 26 in his career against Morton.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: TB has K’d 69 times over the last 7 games but they also have 8 HRs in those games.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (-142)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Steven Matz
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
A little shocked to see this game open at 9.5 runs with these two guys on the mound. I think both SPs are in a great spot as we know the upside that Corbin offers every time he takes the mound. Matz was dominant against WAS last season as he allowed just 1 run in 11 innings while striking out 15. The big issue is the fact that he’s been pretty bad away from home in his career. Last season, Corbin allowed 7 HRs to the Mets which is pretty high. He did strike out 39 in 31 innings but those HRs standout to me. The Mets only hit .222 against him though.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, JD Davis
GPP Note: The two guys above have combined to hit 7 HRs in 37 ABs against Corbin
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: The Nationals have just 1 HR over the last 4 games
Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles (-126)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game will need to be updated during the day on Tuesday. There is WAY too much uncertainty with the Marlins right now. Honestly, I don’t even know who they will end up having on the roster for this game. We may not hear who the SP is until the afternoon at some point. Means should be in play but he had a very ugly start to his 2020 season. If the Marlins end up starting an LHP, I am going to want to stack some BALT bats. Looks like it’s an RHP for the Marlins.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: I have no idea who will be in the lineup at this point for the Marlins
BAL 5-star plays: NA
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Waiting on an update about the Marlins SP at this point.
Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Christian Javier
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
There is no line or total for this game late Monday night. I will update you in the morning. I am a big Valdez fan and he gets an offense that hasn’t started to click yet (they should at some point). Javier looked really impressive in his debut and now gets a weaker opponent and should offer us some upside. Arizona has just 2 HRs on the season and is hitting just .192 as a whole. They have a combined ISO of just .073, which is ultra-low.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: The Astros are hitting just .239 with an ISO of .137 over the last week
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No upside in this offense right now
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-150)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
I am really shocked to see OAK open as a -150 favorite against Lance Lynn. I know the Rangers offense has been non-existent but Lynn has been absolutely dominant. This game should be a pitcher’s duel as it opened with a total set at 8 runs. I can see that dropping to 7.5 at some point in the morning. Luzardo is an elite level SP prospect, who has thrown 6.2 innings in relief so far this season. He did get up to 67 pitches in his last appearance so we could be looking at an 80 pitch start. I am pumped to watch this pitching match-up as a baseball fan.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Just don’t see the upside facing an elite arm. Frazier has always hit LHPs well and Gallo is swinging it well and has 3 HRs against LHPs so far this season (LvL).
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Lynn does have reverse splits tendencies and OAK did just bust out on offense on Monday night
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
-
- Colorado Rockies: I respect Gausman as an SP but I don’t respect Kapler’s ability to manage a pitching staff. The bullpen is full of names that most haven’t heard of and we are talking about Coors. Arenado picked up his 1st HR of the season and Blackmon/Story/Kemp are rolling as well. Easily the highest IRT on the slate.
- Baltimore Orioles: I have them here as of now because there’s a chance they face an LHP in Caleb Smith. I have seen places with Smith listed and others with Lopez listed. I want an off-the-wall stack in my top 3 every day to help differentiate from the field and right now it looks like it will be the Orioles. Alberto and Nunez do a ton of damage against LHPs and Iglesias is swinging a hot stick.
- San Francisco Giants: The Giants are surprising people on the offensive side. Over the next month and a half, I would expect them to fade a bit but right now the top half of this lineup is performing. Yastrzemski is a legit MLB star in my opinion, at least the face of a team type player right now. He just plays the game hard and does whatever it takes to give his team a chance to win. Solano is scorching hot and Belt/Longoria has been fine since returning from injury.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joc Pederson, LA Dodgers
Pederson slid into the leadoff spot with Betts out on Monday night and led the game off with an HR. He has 2 HRs and a 2B in his career against Lamet (5 PAs). I don’t plan on picking on Lamet all that much as he has been dominating LHBs this season but he is due for some regression there in comparison to what his career numbers have been like. Pederson is a guy that gets scorching hot and I can actually see him going back-to-back nights with a leadoff HR.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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