Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Jacob deGrom – Do I need to talk about deGrom much? He doesn’t need to be faded and you will be surprised that some won’t use him just because he is facing ATL, as they are considered a very good team overall. He dominated them once this season and last year he struck out 39 against them in 26.1 innings.
- Frankie Montas – A LOT of people around baseball love the talent of Montas. He has flashed an ace-like upside for the A’s over the last couple of seasons. It’s just a matter of putting it all together. He hasn’t looked elite yet this season as his K numbers have been just above-average while he has had some control issues. Most of the SEA lineup isn’t producing at this point so the match-up is very much in Montas’ favor.
- Gerrit Cole – We get Cole and deGrom on the same day. How do we choose? I think Cole is the higher upside play but I feel like deGrom is the safer one. Cole gets to face a PHI squad that hasn’t played an actual game in 8 days. That’s a long time to be off of game action in baseball. We just don’t know what we will get out of the Phillies today. With that said, they still have to face Cole. He isn’t far behind deGrom in overall safety and if PHI is rusty, he should blow by deGrom’s upside.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This is lining up to be a very interesting pitcher’s duel for me. The total opened at 8.5 runs and we saw the Reds place Votto on the IL and they could end up placing Moustakas on the IL as well. When you lose bats like that, you become very below-average. The Indians bats, on the other hand, aren’t exactly tearing it up either. The team has an ISO of .075 against RHPs so far this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Ramirez and Hernandez are basically the only guys hitting against RHPs to start the season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: 7 of Castellanos’ 12 hits have gone for extra-bases so far in 2020.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees (-350)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Jake Arrieta
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
The Yankees are just your average -350 in this game as the total sits at 9 runs. I am very interested to see how rusty the Nationals are coming in to face Cole after their COVID issues. I can’t imagine that Arrieta is very sharp as his start kept being pushed back over the issues. This isn’t a start that he can fake his way through against the power of the Yankees.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Realmuto LOVES facing Cole. He is just 10 for 14 against him in his career.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: All the power as I expect Arrieta to be rusty here. Multiple 2 and 3-Run HRs on tap?
New York Mets (-120) @ Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Braves – Mike Soroka
Rundown:
We get a game with a total set at 7.5 runs and a couple of pitchers that we are going to be interested in. Starting with Soroka, he has looked really strong to begin this season as he shut down this Mets squad across 6 innings, allowing 4 hits and striking out 3. It’s a tough spot for him with deGrom on the other side. deGrom is the two-time Cy Young award winner who is just really really freaking good. He struck out 8 Braves batters while allowing just 1 hit in 5 innings to begin his season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Alonso looks lost at the plate but Cano seems to be seeing the ball well. I don’t think we can stack against Soroka here.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: I am not attacking deGrom at all. Freeman has had some success and represents basically the only guy I would want as a one-off
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Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers (PICK EM)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
Line and total were finally posted and it’s a pick’em with a total sitting at 9.5 runs. The Brewers have had a few off days thanks to the Cardinals testing positive. Milwaukee comes in with some question marks as Lorenzo Cain has opted to sit out the rest of the season while Ryan Braun was just put on the IL. Add in the fact that Yelich is struggling mightily at the plate and we get a team that looks to be in trouble, already. The White Sox have the better offense right now and neither team has an SP going that should scare the other team.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: The Brewers changed from an RHP projected started to an LHP. I prefer the CWS lineup against RHPs but Anderson just doesn’t scare me at this point.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Rodon didn’t look good to begin the season but this MIL squad has looked really bad. Hiura and Yelich always make sense but I have a hard time clicking on any Brewer bats.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Derek Holland
Twins – Lewis Thorpe
Rundown:
Thorpe making the spot start with Bailey landing on the IL. The game has no total or line yet but I expect the Twins to be a pretty strong favorite here as they get to face a weak offense while also facing an LHP. The Twins have been slow to start this season against LHPs but I expect that see some positive regression as a number of guys in the lineup absolutely destroyed LHPs last season and in their careers.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Just don’t think very highly of the Pirates bats
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: The Twins roster has hit 10 HRs against Holland in their careers.
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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs (-143)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
Mills looked serviceable to solid in his first start of the season. The Royals are a little tougher than the Pirates are but they aren’t exactly killing it. Duffy started solid and faded pretty quickly in his first start. Duffy has the K upside but the Cubs are full of power. The Cubs lineup obviously becomes weaker if Bryant misses another game and we ALWAYS have to pay attention to the wind direction at Wrigley. Looks like the wind is blowing in from CF today.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Striking out at a 27.5% rate against RHPs so far this season
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 against LHPs so far this season
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Rundown:
The Coors game opens with a total of 12.5 runs. We don’t get anything special in terms of pitching here so even the Giants make sense as the Rockies aren’t overwhelming favorites. The Giants may end up the lowest owned team playing in Colorado all season long. That gives me some excitement as I will most certainly stack them multiple ways in this spot. I just wish the Rockies were throwing an LHP here so that I could look at Ruf with Flores and Pence.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Solano has driven in 13 runs against RHPs this season so far.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Matt Kemp
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl
GPP Note: The above 4 are 31 for 97 with 6 HRs against Cueto.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This series is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Monday’s game opens with a run total set at just 7.5. The Dodgers saw Mookie Betts leave in the 7th inning of Sunday’s game so we certainly need to monitor his status. This game should offer a TON of pitching with a couple of HRs potentially. Dodger bats hit 3 HRs in 46 PAs against Paddack in 2019.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Tough match-up so my exposure will be pretty low at this point in my research but the Dodgers are ALWAYS excellent mini-stack options.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: The match-up is too difficult for me. I will use a couple of guys as they offer a lot of upsides but remember this is SD’s first game after a series at Coors.
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Oakland Athletics (-175) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Rundown:
The opening line has the total set at 9 runs. We do not get much history to off of for these SPs in facing their opponent and while Sheffield has been considered a strong prospect for a few years, Montas is definitely the better pitcher. Montas has some nasty stuff but right now I would say he gets the tougher match-up as some of the SEA bats are far hotter than those on OAK.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Chad Pinder, Matt Olson
GPP Note: A’s are hitting just .178 against LHPs so far this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Lewis
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Montas has legit upside as an SP but the trio above has been carrying this SEA offense, especially Lewis.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Minnesota Twins: Call me a Twins fan homer any time you want but I will respond with numbers and match-ups that show you why I am so high on them in spots. The ISO numbers that the Twins put up last season against LHPs was insane (most of those guys have done it previously in their careers). I just hope that Donaldson returns to the lineup as he just makes them a much scarier team for pitchers to navigate.
- Colorado Rockies: the Rockies get to play back to back series’ at home and that is always a bonus for them as they get re-accustomed to Coors field and altitude. Add in that they get to see a soft-tossing SP and we get a spot where runs can happen in a hurry. The worry is that Cueto has had success in Coors throughout his career. He has made 8 appearances and has an ERA of just 3.26 while allowing just 5 HRs in 47 innings.
- San Francisco Giants: How original right? The Coors game teams both make my top 3. While I can understand that it appears pretty weak on my part but let me point out that I think that SF is lower owned than #3 once the slate kicks off (Yankees, Cubs, White Sox make sense). Normally I am afraid of a team making their first trip to Coors in a season as there is the adjustment period. I just don’t think the Giants are a team that is going to change all that much from what they are. Right now they are a team that is surprising on the offensive side. 7 of their 9 HRs on the season have come at home, which is a bit shocking considering how big their ballpark is/plays.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Alex Dickerson, SF Giants
Here’s an off-the-wall name from Coors that I am going to hang my hat on. He has an ISO of .286 so far this season as he is basically platooning to start the year. He went 9 for 14 with an OPS of 1.524 at Coors Field in 2019. While that certainly is a small sample size, that tells me he didn’t come in and struggle to adjust right away. The obvious would have been to name one of a handful of names in this game or any of the Twins RHBs that destroy LHPs but I am not here to give you the obvious.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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