Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Shane Bieber
- Tyler Glasnow
- Brad Keller
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. We have to love the scheduling quirks of this season as deGrom is about to make his 4th consecutive start against the Marlins. He has 27 Ks in 18 innings while allowing just 3 runs in the 3 previous starts. Rogers is making his 2nd consecutive start (2nd overall start) against the Mets. He dominated in the first appearance, going 4 shutout innings, with 6 Ks.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .074 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 6 games.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. The Baltimore bats are struggling a bit right now so Chase Anderson gets them at a pretty good time (let’s be honest, they were overachieving anyways). Mountcastle picked up his first 2 HRs in Sunday’s game and is somebody I will have my eye on here as Anderson has always shown pretty strong reverse splits.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last 5 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox (-140) @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Twins – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has finally opened with a total set at 8.5. This will be an interesting game to pay attention to. Giolito is coming off of an extremely impressive no-hitter, facing a team that he has had some struggles against. Rich Hill is taking on a team that destroys LHPs this season (.308 team ISO over 260 ABs). Call me a Twins homer here but I think we might see a rough game from Giolito after the Twins were just embarrassed and swept by the Tigers.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last 5 games.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Barria has looked solid through 2 starts so far and the Angels desperately need another SP to step up as Bundy and now Canning has been the only bright spots from the pitching staff. Gonzales is always interesting because he just randomly puts it all together in games (see what he did against the Dodgers this season). Trout, Fletcher, and Simmons have done a TON of damage against Gonzales in their careers.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 6 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Brewers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last 7 games.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 7 games
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Cleveland Indians (-240) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. I am going to come right out and say this, why the hell are the Indians such gigantic favorites on the road here? It can’t just blindly be because Bieber is on the mound, right? I mean the Royals are running out a red-hot Brad Keller opposing him while the Indians bats were just shut down over the weekend by Flaherty and a 98-year-old Adam Wainwright.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 6 games.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (-116)
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Reds – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. If we get good hitting weather in Cincinnati on Monday, this game stands out to me as one that has the potential to blow-up. There is plenty of strong BvP history from both sides here and both SPs are capable of getting knocked around. As of Sunday night, I will be targeting this game heavily.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 8 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 8 games.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-120)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. I know I covered the Nationals taking on Howard recently but that game ended up getting rained out I believe. I want all of the Nationals LHB’s plus Trea Turner against him. Philadelphia is favored here and they are currently in a battle of bats against the Braves in the Sunday night baseball game (11-10 in the top of the 9th). All the offense here in this game.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last 6 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 5 games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Cole struck out 10 in 6.2 innings against TB just two starts ago and is coming off of a very rough start against the Braves. Cole has two starts against TB so far as a member of the Yankees and he has 10 Ks in each while allowing 5 runs in 11.1 innings. He has given up 3 HRs to the Rays so far this season. Glasnow is coming off of a 13 K performance in 7 innings of work against BAL. He held the Yankees to just 2 runs in 5.2 innings the start prior to that.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 5 games.
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Red Sox – Colten Brewer
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. As of right now, the Braves have 12 runs in the top of the 9th on Sunday night with 2 runners on base yet. The offense has shown up and now they get an inviting match-up against a suspect Red Sox pitching staff. Very VERY good chance that the team ISO below for the Braves jumps up when it gets updated after tonight’s game.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last 5 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Bobby Dalbec
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 5 games.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
Waiting for Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Washington Nationals
- San Diego Padres
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Carpenter, St Louis Cardinals
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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