Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Kenta Maeda – Maeda is the third-largest favorite on the slate with the most inviting K upside match-up. The Tigers have K’d at over a 30% rate against RHPs in 2020. He has 40 Ks in 36.2 innings so far this season and has 19 of them over his last 2 starts.
- Tony Gonsolin – Gonsolin is the second-largest favorite on the slate right now. He has yet to allow a run in 2020 as he has thrown 14.2 innings and allowed just 6 hits. He has 12 Ks to go along with just 2 walks. He has thrown over 80 pitches in each of his last 2 outings. Maybe we can dream that Dave Roberts will allow his SPs to throw 95-100 pitches?
- Brandon Woodruff – Woodruff and the Brewers are the largest favorites on the main slate (and overall). He faces a Pirates squad that isn’t making any hard contact right now and it’s the team that he had his best start of 2020 against. He struck out 10 Pirates over 6.1 innings while allowing just 1 hit.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. The Orioles have hit just 2 HRs over the last week. We should expect to see some offense here because of how this park has performed so far this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last 5 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 6 games.
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Phillies – Jake Arrieta
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. This is the Sunday Night game so make sure to check out our Showdown notes. One thing that stood out to me is that the Braves roster has 202 PAs against Arrieta in their careers and have hit just 2 HRs combined against him.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last 5 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 5 games.
Minnesota Twins (-196) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I know the Twins SP hurt us yesterday but I am going right back to the well here as the Tigers strike out at over a 30% rate against RHPs. Maeda has been stellar all season so, to me, there is no reason to think the Tigers will magically knock him around.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 6 games.
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Oakland Athletics (-106) @ Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. I must be missing something here. The A’s are favored at HOU, against Valdez. Valdez has been more consistent than Luzardo and to be honest, better overall. Either way, I think both SPs are interesting here as Luzardo should offer some GPP upside.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 6 games
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Martin Maldonado, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last 6 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Steven Brault
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. This is another spot for the Brewers to keep some offensive momentum. They are also going to end up as either the largest or second-largest favorite on the day. I want all the exposure to Brandon Woodruff as the Pirates offense is scuffling and that is putting it lightly.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last 7 games.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jedd Gyorko, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last 7 games
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Cleveland Indians (-122) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. We get a great pitching match-up in this one. I was a bit caught off guard by the 14 run outburst by CLE on Friday as Saturday’s game bounced back to a pitcher’s duel. A little shocked to see Wainwright an underdog at home in this one.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 8 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-124)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Diamondbacks – Taylor Clarke
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. I know Cueto struggled in his last start, against the Dodgers, but he has been pretty respectable this season and has even flashed some K upside over his last few starts. Clarke was up to 70 pitches in his most recent outing so I would think that he’s capable of going 80-90 pitches in this spot. The Giants offense has a few bats that have been scorching hot over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 6 games
Washington Nationals (-108) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Austin Voth
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 11.5 runs. This is back-to-back days with a run total that rivals a Coors game. Saturday’s game definitely went under the total even though there were 20 hits and 7 walks in the game (just 8 runs). I will not be afraid to go right back to this game as guys like Kendrick and Turner have been hot and have done damage against Godley in their careers.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last 6 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 5 games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Blake Snell
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
Still waiting on Vegas information. Alcantara is making his first start in over a month as he missed time with COVID. I am not sure what to expect out of him as we are likely to see his pitch count capped at a number, that hasn’t been reported yet. Snell is always a beast and always in play. He was finally allowed to cross the 100 pitch mark in his last start so we should have zero reservations about him at this point.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last 6 games.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .074 over the last 7 games
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-178)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Will Canning finally pick up his first victory of 2020? The Angels offense exploded for 16 runs on Saturday as Jo Adell hit his first career MLB HR. He enjoyed it so much that he decided to hit another in the game and Trout did Trout things and drove in 6 runs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Dodgers have hit 13 HRs over their last 6 games and have added 12 doubles to go with those HRs. Gibson can struggle at times so I feel like the Dodgers are both going to be chalky and going to be the highest-scoring offense on the main slate. Betts is 7 for 18 with 3 HRs against Gibson in his career.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last 6 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 6 games.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Rick Porcello
Yankees – Michael King
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information yet for this doubleheader. Remember, both games are set to be 7 inning contests.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 5 games
New York Mets @ New York Yankees – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Seth Lugo
Yankees – Deivi Garcia
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information yet for this doubleheader. Remember, both games are set to be 7 inning contests.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Brett DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 5 games
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-146)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Tyler Chatwood
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. There is some interesting BvP history in this game. Chatwood has come back down to earth recently and his struggles with control popped up in his most recent start, after an IL stint. Castillo hasn’t been very dominant this year and hasn’t really looked at all like the future of this rotation.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 over the last 7 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 8 games.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
White Sox – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I know I am going to love the White Sox bats against an LHP in this one. They have been hitting HRs and I don’t see a reason that it would stop in this spot. Dunning struck out 7 in 4.1 innings during his debut 11 days ago.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last 7 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222over the last 5 games.
San Diego Padres (-149) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Rundown:
This game has a total of 12. We get a Coors field game that is finally not on the main slate! The Padres are hitting a TON of HRs right now and now they get to do that in a park that allows flyballs to keep going and going and going and going…well you get the picture. Machado and Arenado both look locked in at the plate. Saturday’s game saw just 6 runs scored, despite 23 hits between the two teams.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Chicago White Sox
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Washington Nationals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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