Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Lance Lynn – This one will surprise you as Lynn takes on the Dodgers today. What people will not realize is that Lynn rocks some reverse splits in his career and that can lead to success against a lineup that I presume should be somewhat LHB dominant. I know he is an underdog, at home, but DO NOT look passed Lynn.
- Randy Dobnak – We should finally get to see Dobnak face the Tigers as we have seen this game PPD each of the last two days. He doesn’t flash massive K ability but the Tigers are striking out at over a 30% rate against RHPs so far this season. He has done a tremendous job of limiting hard contact and this team shouldn’t change that.
- Jack Flaherty – Flaherty has allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits in 13.2 innings so far this season. He is coming off of a 1 hit, 5 inning performance against KC. He hasn’t flashed massive upside just yet but now that the Cardinals are playing every day, I think we see him get back to being the man for STL. Cleveland just busted out for 14 runs on Friday and I think that pushes some ownership off of Flaherty.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Blue Jays – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last 5 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last 8 games.
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Josh Tomlin
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 5 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 5 games.
Minnesota Twins (-170) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. Randy Dobnak has allowed 2 runs or less in all 6 of his starts so far in 2020. He only has 16 Ks in 30.1 innings but he does get a little K boost here as the Tigers strike out at a 30.3% rate against RHPs this season. Boyd has allowed 8 HRs in 28.2 innings and has allowed a total of 27 runs in his 6 starts.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 7 games.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Undecided
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 7 games.
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Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-132) – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. McCullers has been all over the place in his starts this season so I am a little bit surprised to see him as a favorite here, albeit a slight one at home. Bassitt hasn’t been very sharp himself but he has shown more consistency than McCullers has and he’s been better against the opposing lineup than McCullers has in their careers.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 7 games
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-124) – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. We have to pay attention to lineups here in the doubleheader. We also have to remember that each of these games will be 7 innings so that makes things a bit trickier. We have to consider SPs in a 7 inning game on DK because of the CG bonus (along with the shutout bonus).
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 7 games
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-164)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. The Brewers took care of business pretty easily on Friday night and should be in a similar spot here as they face Brubaker for the second time in a week. Anderson isn’t as strong of an option as Burnes was but he should be able to pick up some easy outs en route to a victory.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 7 games.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 7 games
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Cleveland Indians @ St Louis Cardinals (-123)
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. We get a great pitching match-up in this one, as long as Carrasco has things straightened out as he has NOT performed overly well as a chalky DFS option. I was a bit caught off guard by the 14 run outburst by CLE but we could be seeing that offense finally get rolling.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 8 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-138)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Trevor Cahill
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Cahill has looked pretty solid so far while Weaver has really turned things around since a horrid start to the season. He faced the Giants in his last start and allowed 2 runs and struck out 5 in 5.2 innings. Cahill’s last start came against ARI and he struck out 8 in 5.1 innings while allowing just 1 run on 1 hit.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last 6 games
Washington Nationals (-106) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Red Sox – Chris Mazza
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 11.5 runs. That run total is massive for a game that is not happening in Coors or at an altitude site like in Mexico City. We thought Mazza would start yesterday but they went with Martin Perez so we get to attack Mazza today now. The guys in Boston that have faced Sanchez have had a TON of success against him.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 5 games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Josh Fleming
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
Still waiting on Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last 6 games.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last 8 games
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. We get Dylan Bundy again, against a weak SEA squad. He has faced them twice so far and has 18 Ks in 15 innings. He threw a complete game with 10 Ks in his last start against them. Sheffield has allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 18 innings and has looked like a completely different pitcher since he was roughed up a bit to start the 2020 season by this Angels squad.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-149) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Ross Stripling
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. This game is extremely interesting as the Rangers beat the Dodgers on Friday night and now they get to run Lance Lynn out to the mound. What intrigues me about that is his reverse splits tendencies that can lead to success in what should be a pretty LHB heavy Dodgers lineup.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .258 over the last 6 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last 6 games.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Robert Gsellman
Yankees – J.A. Happ
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information as I assume they are waiting on the Mets to verify their SP.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last 5 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 4 games
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I do very much hope that this is the SP match-up as it will be a pretty exciting game to watch. I would love to see this game end 1-0 or 2-1 with either team winning at this point. Both of these guys are extremely strong and both could very well throw a complete game here (remember, 7 inning game).
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 6 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last 7 games.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Reds – Tejay Antoine
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 6 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last 7 games.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Match-up of two young starters who seem to have bright futures at this point. Cease struck out 4 in 6 innings while allowing 2 runs in a victory over KC earlier this season. Singer has had his ups and downs but I think some of that can be attributed to the fact that he has faced the Twins in each of his last 3 starts. The one thing that does stand out here is that he has allowed 7 HRs over his last 5 starts.
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last 6 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .294 over the last 5 games (13 HRs).
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Adrian Morejon
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. We get a Coors field game on the main slate, yay! There’s some sarcasm in that statement as it just muddies things up a bit. The Padres are hitting a TON of HRs right now and now they get to do that in a park that allows flyballs to keep going and going and going and going…well you get the picture. Machado and Arenado both look locked in at the plate.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .268 over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Matt Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Both Main and Early Slates
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- Chicago White Sox: The White Sox are hitting HRs (13 over their last 5 games) and Singer has started to allow some HRs as teams get more and more film on him. I am going to ride the hot bats as my number 1 stack here as the masses probably ride my #2 stack (for good reason).
- San Diego Padres: Another team hitting HRs at a ridiculous rate, the Padres head to Coors Field where we love to watch baseballs fly. They have hit 13 HRs over their last 6 games. A team ISO of .268 in those 6 games.
- Washington Nationals: I want to pick on Mazza here as the Nationals are a team that can put up runs in sneaky ways (outside of Turner-Soto, obviously). They just put up 10 runs on Friday and now this game has an absurd non-Coors total of 11.5 runs. The team has just 37 Ks over the last 7 games. Putting the ball in play and hitting just under .300 over those 7 games.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox
Moreland has double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 7 games. He has hit 2 HRs in his career (8 ABs) against Sanchez and he has an OPS of 1.357 at home so far this season (5 HRs in 34 ABs). This game has the potential to be a shoot-out that could be the GPP winning combination as most will flock to the SD-COL game.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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