Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Max Scherzer – While Scherzer had dominated against the PHI lineup in his career, he gets a better match-up today after being PPD yesterday. The Red Sox are struggling this season and are striking out at a 24.6% rate against RHPs to this point. He should get plenty of run support as the offense should be able to hit Mazza pretty well.
- Dustin May – May gets a GREAT match-up here as he faces a Rangers squad that is hitting just .197 against RHPs so far in 2020. Texas has played 16 home games so far and they have a team ISO of just .096 and 54 runs scored in those games. May should end up one of the largest favorites on the slate.
- Zac Gallen – The Giants are striking out at a 25.4% rate over the last 6 games. Gallen has held the roster of the Giants to just 3 hits in 24 PAs against him in their careers. Gallen has allowed just 9 runs in his 6 starts, with no start being over 2 runs allowed. He has 42 Ks in his 36 innings so far and has become one of my favorite plays every time he is on the slate.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Ryu has been solid for TOR but this becomes a tough spot for him as the Orioles have definitely hit LHPs very well this season and this ballpark is allowing HRs to be hit. Means has been really bad and the Blue Jays are loaded with power bats. I expect this game to have some run-scoring done, even the Orioles while they are struggling.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last 8 games.
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Robbie Erlin
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Wheeler is coming off of his best start as a Phillie, against the Braves. He’s in an interesting spot again here but the Braves just got Acuna back so the lineup just became a little more difficult to deal with. Erlin has given up 4 HRs in 6.2 innings against the Phillies so far this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Tyler Flowers, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last 5 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last 7 games.
Minnesota Twins (-170) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. Randy Dobnak has allowed 2 runs or less in all 6 of his starts so far in 2020. He only has 16 Ks in 30.1 innings but he does get a little K boost here as the Tigers strike out at a 30.3% rate against RHPs this season. Boyd has allowed 8 HRs in 28.2 innings and has allowed a total of 27 runs in his 6 starts.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 7 games.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Undecided
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 7 games.
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Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-118)
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. McCullers has been all over the place in his starts this season so I am a little bit surprised to see him as a favorite here, albeit a slight one at home. Bassitt hasn’t been very sharp himself but he has shown more consistency than McCullers has and he’s been better against the opposing lineup than McCullers has in their careers.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 7 games
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-190)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Derek Holland
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Both of these SPs made their last starts against the same team. Burnes has been above-average all season long, we just need him to be able to pitch into the 7th or at least complete 6 innings of work. The Brewers offense had been rolling and then they were shut down in the doubleheader yesterday. Since Holland was blown up in Detroit, he has allowed just 1 run in 7 innings of work.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last 6 games.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 6 games
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Cleveland Indians (-127) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Triston McKenzie looked absolutely electric in his MLB debut and while I was shocked he was allowed to throw 6 innings (missed all of last season with injuries), I do have some worries about his second start. He is going to be somewhat popular based on game logs. I will have shares but my reservations are going to keep me below the field in ownership.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 7 games.
STL 5-star plays: Yadier Molina
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last 7 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-175)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Gallen is always in play for me and thankfully he’s an RHP going up against SF. At this point, I think SF is firmly in play against LHPs only. Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed have done some damage against Tyler Anderson but that’s about it from the ARI side.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 5 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 7 games
Washington Nationals (-156) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Red Sox – Chris Mazza
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. I am all about the Nationals side in this one. We know the bats can do some damage and we know how dominant Scherzer can be any time he takes the mound. Mazza has an ERA of 6.35 on the season and he is coming off of a start in which he allowed 9 baserunners in 3 innings of work.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 6 games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Marlins – Sixto Sanchez
Rundown:
Still waiting on Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last 7 games.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last 8 games
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-186)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Nick Margevicius
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Heaney has allowed 3 runs in 10.2 innings against SEA so far this season and should carry some ownership on this slate. The issue I have is that Maddon is his manager and loves to go to the bullpen early. Seattle is coming in with a team ISO of .214 over the last 6 games. Trout is hitting just .185 against LHPs so far in 2020.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rangers – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. May gets a GREAT match-up here as he faces a Rangers squad that is hitting just .197 against RHPs so far in 2020. Texas has played 16 home games so far and they have a team ISO of just .096 and 54 runs scored in those games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .280 over the last 5 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 7 games.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees (-145) – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Michael Wacha
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. I actually don’t love this game much at all. That’s really saying something considering the Yankees are involved. The Yankees are dealing with so many injuries that their lineup looks really weak overall. The Mets have some names but most of them are LH and that makes this a tough spot.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last 3 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 3 games
New York Mets @ New York Yankees – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Undecided
Yankees – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last 3 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 3 games
Chicago Cubs (-124) @ Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. While I think that Hendricks is just a really good pitcher, I do think we could see some fireworks here. Both guys have struggled enough against the opposition that it makes me believe that contact is going to be hard in this game. We definitely are going to have to watch the weather here.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 6 games.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-142)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. I absolutely LOVE this game for bats. The White Sox are absolutely destroying the baseball right now and the lineup is loaded with guys that can hit HRs, especially against LHPs. There is some strong BvP on both sides in this game as Lopez hasn’t exactly fooled this KC lineup.
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Ryan O’Hearn
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 6 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Adam Engel, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .324 over the last 6 games (18 HRs).
San Diego Padres (-112) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Zach Davies
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has a total of 12 runs. We get a Coors field game on the main slate, yay! There’s some sarcasm in that statement as it just muddies things up a bit. The Padres are hitting a TON of HRs right now and now they get to do that in a park that allows flyballs to keep going and going and going and going…well you get the picture.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .274 over the last 5 games.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Sam Hilliard
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Chicago White Sox: I know that Duffy has looked good the last couple of starts and both starts came against a dangerous MIN lineup. The White Sox have been hitting HRs at an insane rate recently and I love the lineup when it faces LHPs. They have a team ISO of .304 against LHPS so far in 2020.
- San Diego Padres: Another team hitting HRs at a ridiculous rate, the Padres head to Coors Field where we love to watch baseballs fly. They have hit 13 HRs over their last 6 games. A team ISO of .274 in those 6 games.
- Chicago Cubs: I know the Cubs offense hasn’t been clicking all that much but they get to hit in a small ballpark, against a pitcher who has allowed 6 runs (2 HRs) over his last 2 starts (just 6.1 innings total). They have a team ISO of .222 against the Reds so far this season.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals
The BvP in this match-up is extremely inviting as Soler has dominated Reynaldo Lopez. He is just a mediocre 11 for 17 with 3 HRs and 3 2Bs against him in his career. He has 2 HRs and 8 RBI over his last 6 games. Lopez has given up 6 runs in his 4 innings, across 2 starts so far this season.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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