Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer has faced this Phillies roster a combined 181 times and they have an insane 76 Ks, which equates to a 42% K rate. Those numbers are insane to look at. I know the PHI lineup is certainly dangerous but Scherzer is just a different animal, especially when he is focused. The Nationals have struggled and recently lost Strasburg for the season so I think Scherzer is going to try and take things onto his shoulders from here on out.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw didn’t make my list for Wednesday but with the game being PPD due to the boycott, I think he finds his way onto my list of options on a tougher slate for SPs. I don’t LOVE it here as SF has been really good against LHPs so far this season but Kershaw has looked pretty good, aside from allowing 3 HRs to SF earlier this season. I don’t trust him for cash, which is tough to admit, but I think he makes an intriguing GPP option.
- Sixto Sanchez – The 22-year-old made his debut last week and looked solid, despite allowing 3 runs and 2 HRs. He had a tough spot but his fastball looked good, touching 100 MPH at times. He only picked up 4 Ks but he did pick up the win. The main draw for me with Sanchez is the fact that he is just $5100 on DK. That is way too intriguing for me to pass up as an SP2. Will be interesting to see what kind of Vegas line we get on this game.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Yarbrough has been off in his last few appearances as he is giving up some HRs and just doesn’t look like the guy from the start of the season. That makes this a tough start, even as a huge favorite, because of how strong the Orioles have been against LHPs this season (.263 ISO vs LHPs in 2020). Means has given up 4 HRs and 12 runs over his 10.2 innings so far in 2020.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Mike Brosseau, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 6 games.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (-193)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5 runs. Scherzer has faced this Phillies roster a combined 181 times and they have an insane 76 Ks, which equates to a 42% K rate. Those numbers are insane to look at. Howard looked solid in his last start but he’s getting knocked around by LHBs so far this season. They have a slugging % of .846 and an OPS of 1.346 against him.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins (-170) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. Dobnak has allowed 2 runs or less in all 6 of his starts so far in 2020. He only has 16 Ks in 30.1 innings but he does get a little K boost here as the Tigers strike out at a 30.3% rate against RHPs this season. Boyd has allowed 8 HRs in 28.2 innings and has allowed a total of 27 runs in his 6 starts.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 7 games.
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Oakland Athletics (-182) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. I am really shocked to see a total of 10 runs in Texas. The Wednesday night game is pretty low-scoring, as are most games at this new ballpark. Bassitt has been trending in the wrong direction as his ERA has increased after every start so far this season. He gets a strong match-up but he has given up a decent amount of HRs to the Rangers in his career. Lyles doesn’t interest me at all as the A’s are going to end up with one of the highest IRTs on the slate.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 7 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 7 games
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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Brewers – Josh Lindblom
Rundown:
No Vegas information. Miley taking on his former teammates hasn’t been good at all this season so far. The Brewers bats are rolling a little bit right now so I can see this being a rough spot for Miley to navigate. I keep falling for Lindblom’s K upside but he keeps giving up runs as he rocks an ERA of 6.65 on the season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 8 games
MIL 5-star plays: Avisail Garcia
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 7 games
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. The Brewers have beaten Bauer and Castillo so far this series and now they face Gray. That’s a tough 3 SP stretch to navigate but they are playing really solid baseball right now. Houser has given up 11 runs over his last 17 innings so his form isn’t great but the Reds offense is struggling quite a bit right now.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 8 games
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 7 games
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-176) – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7 runs. We get a pretty low opening total but I expect it to creep up a bit as neither SP is that dominant. Kim is coming off of a dominant start and while he gets a great match-up, I just don’t know how he bounces back after his MLB career-high pitch total. Kuhl has given up 4 HRs over his last 3 starts (14 innings).
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Erik Gonzalez, Jacob Stallings
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 8 games.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-170) – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Cody Ponce
Cardinals – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7 runs. Oviedo was impressive in his first 2020 appearance and he gets a plus match-up here. I think he has some sneaky ability on this slate. Ponce gave up 2 HRs in 3 innings during his last appearance as he piggy-backed Brubaker against the Twins.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 8 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-149)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Gallen has allowed just 9 runs in his 6 starts, with no start being over 2 runs allowed. He has 42 Ks in his 36 innings so far and has become one of my favorite plays every time he is on the slate. The Diamondbacks have 10 HRs in 168 PAs in their careers against Freeland. They have just an 11.9% K rate against Freeland.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 7 games
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-172)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Mazza
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10.5 runs. Mazza was lit up in his last appearance (his 1st start) and now gets to face a team that is hitting plenty of HRs, in a park that seems to have an extremely inviting batter’s eye. I have watched a couple of the games in this park and I see guys taking massive swings like they know exactly what’s coming.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last 8 games.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Sixto Sanchez
Mets – Robert Gsellman
Rundown:
Still waiting on Vegas information. The Marlins bats aren’t exactly clicking at the plate but they do get a plus match-up to try and bust out. Sixto is a name we have been hearing for a few years now as he was the big name in the Realmuto-to-Philly trade a couple of years ago. He has some impressive stuff, just a matter of learning to actually pitch with it.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last 8 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Just 5 runs scored over their last 3 games.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
No Vegas information as I would assume we could see SPs flip-flop between the two games. Kikuchi is in a tough spot here against the Padres and their power. He has struggled the most when away from SEA. I want the Padres bats and I am definitely right back on Lamet here.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 6 games
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .279 over the last 6 games.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Undecided
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
Waiting on SP information from SEA and then the Vegas information.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 6 games
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .279 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information yet. Buehler was dominant in his last start and that performance came out of nowhere, considering he had been pretty average so far in 2020. He lines up against SF better than Kershaw does as their biggest struggles are against RHPs. Webb has looked solid but this isn’t the match-up for him.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. This is a really interesting baseball game as we get Kershaw against a hotter Giants offense and one that has hit LHPs very well this season. We also get Gausman, who has shown really strong K numbers, against a Dodgers offense that is FULL of power. Gausman has 42 Ks over 31 innings while allowing just 5 HRs so far. Kershaw gave up 3 HRs when he faced the Giants earlier this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have 24 HRs in 10 home games so far this season (not all games have been in Buffalo). Mazza has allowed 12 baserunners in 5.2 innings so far this season. They have a team ISO of .247 in those 10 home games.
- Minnesota Twins: The Twins vs an LHP will always be on my shortlist. I know they haven’t gone off against LHPs much this season (they did against Lauer) but Boyd just isn’t getting guys out consistently yet this season.
- Tampa Bay Rays: Means has given up 4 HRs in 10.2 innings and he has allowed 12 runs on 12 hits through 4 appearances. He doesn’t look at ALL like the guy that came out of nowhere last season. I was a fan of Means last season and while I will be hoping that he turns it around at some point, that point will NOT be on Thursday.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
Soto got back into the HR department on Wednesday and now faces a rookie RHP that has been destroyed by LHBs so far this season. Howard has faced LHBs 30 times so far this season and has allowed 11 hits, 4 walks, 3 HRs and an OPS of 1.346 to this point. Soto came out absolutely scorching and while he had cooled down, he still had been hitting, just not with the HR power he started the season showcasing.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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