Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Jacob deGrom – From what I have read, deGrom was scratched on Tuesday just to give him an extra day because he didn’t get to throw a side session until Monday. He has been solid against MIA so far this season as he has allowed 2 runs in 11 innings while racking up 13 Ks. He’s always going to be the safest SP on the slate.
- Dinelson Lamet – I am going right back to an SD pitcher taking on the Mariners. Paddack let me down last night but Lamet is nastier at this point. He has a 34.1% K rate so far this season and while the Mariners are warm on the offensive end, they still don’t have a ton of power.
- Elieser Hernandez – Hernandez is a HUGE underdog against deGrom here but the Mets offense really crapped the bed yesterday and he has flashed some really nice upside when he takes the mound. If he would ever be allowed to throw 6-7 innings, we could see a really impressive line.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski
Rays – Trevor Richards
Rundown:
No Vegas information yet. I don’t expect either pitcher to pitch very deep into this game. Wojciechowski has the best chance of pitching deep and by deep I mean 5-6 innings. I personally think that Richards is the better pitcher but he really hasn’t found his footing or role with the Rays yet.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 6 games.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-108) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5 runs. Nola continued his recent trend in his last start as he got spanked early on the road. He finished last season with an ERA on the road of 5.19 (just 2.91 at home). He was beaten up by the Nationals last season to the tune of 17 runs in 21 innings (6 HRs) but he did pick up 23 Ks. Corbin has 8+ Ks in 3 of his 5 starts but it really feels like he hasn’t thrown like himself yet this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
Indians – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
No Vegas information yet. Clevinger is making his return to the mound at the MLB level after a strange, breaking COVID protocol, saga. He faces a Twins team that he had his worst start of the season against. He hasn’t pitched at the MLB level in 3 weeks so I am not sure how stretched out he is at this point. Berrios allowed 2 runs in 5 innings while taking the loss against the Indians earlier this season but he is coming off his best start, by far, of the 2020 season.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 7 games.
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Chicago Cubs (-142) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Cubs offense is struggling right now and while I would normally want shares of the SP against them, we probably only get 4 innings as a ceiling from Fulmer as they continue to bring him along slowly. Which Jon Lester is going to show up tonight? He’s been brutal, allowing 6 HRs over his last 2 starts.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 7 games.
DET 5-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 7 games.
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Oakland Athletics (-146) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. We get to go back to the Oakland train here, this time against an SP they haven’t seen before. Allard has given up 10 runs over his last 3.2 innings. Fiers did beat the Rangers earlier this season despite allowing 4 runs (2 HRs). He’s always at the mercy of the HR/Flyball rate as he pitches up in the zone. For his sake, the Rangers aren’t a very powerful team overall.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 7 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 7 games
Cincinnati Reds (-122) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. The Brewers have beaten Bauer and Castillo so far this series and now they face Gray. That’s a tough 3 SP stretch to navigate but they are playing really solid baseball right now. Houser has given up 11 runs over his last 17 innings so his form isn’t great but the Reds offense is struggling quite a bit right now.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 8 games
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 7 games
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Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals (-173)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Jakob Junis
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Junis has yet to complete 5 innings in a start yet this season but he hasn’t been terrible overall. Much like Junis, Hudson is being brought along slowly as he has yet to complete 5 innings as well. He has looked pretty solid over his last 2 starts since the return to play by STL.
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 7 games
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 8 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-119)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This game could have some fireworks as we have 2 SPs who have a lot of history against the opposing teams. There is a combined 357 career PAs among the rosters of both teams and players are 120 for 317 (.379) against the opposing SP.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 7 games
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Colten Brewer
Blue Jays – Undecided
Rundown:
No Vegas information yet. Waiting on TOR SP information as well.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last 8 games.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-250)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at just 7 runs. The Marlins swept the doubleheader on Tuesday and now get to face deGrom the day after he was scratched. Jacob deGrom has thrown 11 innings against the Marlins this season and has K’d 13 while allowing 2 runs. Hernandez is an intriguing SP on this slate as he has allowed just 5 runs in 19.2 innings so far this season. He has picked up 25 Ks in his 4 starts.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last 8 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Just 5 runs scored over their last 3 games.
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit
4-star plays: Mike Ford, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last 4 games.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 5 games.
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit
4-star plays: Mike Ford, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last 4 games.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 5 games.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox (-220)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Williams
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Pirates take on a totally different pitcher than the one that no-hit them last night. Keuchel is a soft-tossing, crafty LHP while Giolito is a here it is, hit it type of bulldog. I think these guys going back-to-back is an interesting thing as it can either lead to the Pirates just looking lost at the plate or they can come out and just hit since they aren’t as worried about being blown away. Trevor Williams is a decent SP but he draws an extremely dangerous offense here. An offense that is absolutely destroying the baseball.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Erik Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last 6 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .305 over the last 6 games.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (-210)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Taijuan Walker
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Let’s see if I can get this one correct. The Mariners made me look foolish against Paddack but I am going back to the well here and using an SP against them. Lamet has a K rate of 34.1% so far this season. Walker has looked pretty solid overall and while the match-up is difficult, I think he could surprise. He allowed 3 solo HRs against the Dodgers in his last start but he picked up the win.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 6 games
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .279 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5 runs. This is a really interesting baseball game as we get Kershaw against a hotter Giants offense and one that has hit LHPs very well this season. We also get Gausman, who has shown really strong K numbers, against a Dodgers offense that is FULL of power. Gausman has 42 Ks over 31 innings while allowing just 5 HRs so far. Kershaw gave up 3 HRs when he faced the Giants earlier this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate plus 1 early
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- Chicago White Sox: I can’t stop, won’t stop with the White Sox right now. I think Williams is a solid SP but the way the White Sox bats are swinging it, I have to be all about them. Their power has been ridiculous over the last week and a half and while they didn’t hit an HR yesterday, I think they bounce back with multiple today. The only question is, did any of them break protocol to celebrate last night?
- Arizona Diamondbacks: I am sick of using Jon Gray and getting burned so I might as well ride the offense against him. We have plenty of BvP history here to show how much he has struggled with ARI bats. The D’Backs roster has a combined wOBA of .408 and an OPS of .955 against Gray, across 153 PAs.
- Oakland Athletics: Allard is giving up runs right now and while the park is less than ideal, Oakland just put up 10 against the Rangers on Tuesday. The A’s have a bunch of RH power in their lineup and that can cause some issues for Allard and the Rangers bullpen isn’t loaded with many household names at this point.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
I wanted to look at a guy like Rafael Devers but I still have no idea who the Blue Jays are throwing in that game. If they end up throwing an RHP, I will be all about Devers. Suarez is a guy who has been cold for much of this abbreviated season but he has 3 HRs over his last 8 games to go with an ISO of .300. He has 3 hits in his career against Houser (3 for 7), with 2 of those being HRs.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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