Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer has been absolutely dominant so far this season. He has allowed just 8 hits in his 4 starts while picking up 41 Ks in 26.1 innings. He has made 3 of his 4 starts on the road so he is certainly comfortable heading to Milwaukee for this start. The only things that stick out in a negative fashion are that both of his runs allowed this season have been on HRs and he does have nearly as many walks as he does hit allowed.
- Framber Valdez – At this point, I should petition to be the head of the Valdez fan club. He’s made one appearance against LAA this season and went 6.1 innings, allowing an unearned run and striking out 8. He’s allowed just 1 HR in 31.1 innings and that HR didn’t even come at Coors Field.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-205)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rays – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Roark faced the Rays just two starts ago and struggled with command as he walked 4 and allowed 4 hits in just 4 innings. The Rays got to him for 3 runs while hitting 1 HR. Snell has made 5 starts this season but has thrown just 18 innings so far. He was allowed to bypass the 90 pitch mark in his last start against a dangerous Yankees squad so we should see a regular start here.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 8 games.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals (-117)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Nationals – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs. Voth has given up 5 HRs in 18 innings so far while striking out just 12. I was thinking that Voth had a shot at breaking out a bit this season but he’s looked pretty average as an SP at this point. Lopez has been one of my favorite SPs this season as people seem to write him off as he pitches for the Marlins but he has allowed just 6 earned runs in 4 starts. I do worry about a bit of regression as he is allowing an ISO of just .104 against LHBs so far this season after allowing an ISO of .211 to them last year.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians (-106)
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Maeda has 33 Ks so far through 31.2 innings and he is allowing an average against him of a whopping .128 on the season. Civale faced the Twins earlier this season and allowed 3 runs in 6 innings and managed to pick up 9 Ks but managed to take the loss. Civale has given up just 7 HRs in 91.2 innings at the MLB level so far in his career.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago Cubs (-136) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Mize allowed 7 hits in 4.1 innings during his MLB debut but he did manage to pick up 7 Ks. He was allowed to throw 73 pitches and while the Cubs have been winning games this season, I think Mize is an interesting play tonight as they aren’t hitting the ball very well overall.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 8 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 7 games.
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Oakland Athletics (-142) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. This should be an old-fashioned pitchers duel tonight. This ballpark is going to play pretty big in general but we do need to know if they are opening the roof or not. Luzardo gets a GREAT match-up as the Rangers offense is struggling (which is saying a lot for them as it is). Lynn is just a beast as he has 42 Ks in 39.1 innings so far this season while having allowed just 6 earned runs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 7 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Trevino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 7 games
Cincinnati Reds (-135) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Bauer and his 0.68 ERA is in a GREAT spot against a team that is striking out at a rate of 27.9% against RHPs. He has allowed just 2 runs (both Solo HRs) while also only allowing 8 hits through 4 starts. Anderson is somebody that I will never use but we probably need to stop openly stacking against him as he just seems to do enough to limit bats against him.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Matt Davidson, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 6 games
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 6 games
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Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals (-180)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. This SP match-up intrigues me as Keller has been really impressive so far this season while Flaherty put together the 2nd half for the history books last season. Flaherty threw just 41 pitches in his first start after the lengthy PPD string for the Cardinals.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 6 games
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last 7 days
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball while the Astros bats are at the top of my shortlist tonight. At some point, I expect the Astros to start hitting HR’s as they have just 13 HRs in 14 home games to this point. The Angels are always dangerous due to the combination of Trout and Rendon but only one of those two are hitting right now.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last 7 games
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. We get the Rockies on the road, where they have a team ISO of just .111 in 13 games. Their road OPS is just .592 as a collective. Castellani is doing something that I just didn’t see happening as his minor league numbers just weren’t good, at all. He did get knocked around in Coors by the Astros in his last start.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last 7 games
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Houston Astros: At some point, the Astros are going to start hitting the ball hard all over the park, especially against mediocre LHPs. They get to play at home here and getting the platoon advantage to take aim at the seats in the Crawford Boxes. This slate lacks a lot of high team totals so maybe we go with more mini-stacking.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: There are zero statistical histories in Castellani’s minor league career to say that what he has done at the MLB level is sustainable in ANY way for him. I have to believe that a blow-up game is coming very soon so while the D’Backs aren’t tearing the cover off of the ball, I think they could surprise here tonight.
- Chicago Cubs: Listen, I love Casey Mize and think he’s got a shot to throw a strong game here with how the Cubs have been scuffling at the plate. The thing is that he gave up a LOT of contact in his debut, even while picking up 7 Ks. The Cubs have one of the top few projected team totals and they have the power that can show up at any point.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
Rendon is blistering at the plate as he is 17 for 32 over the last 7 games. The issue is that he has just 2 extra-base hits (both doubles) in those 17 hits. He had an ISO of .301 against LHPs in 2019. I know earlier in the article I talked about how Valdez has allowed just 1 HR on the season, so the spot is less than ideal. Valdez has allowed 13 HRs in 139 MLB innings and 12 of them have come by RHBs.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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