Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco gets the best match-up on the day as the Tigers are striking out at a 30.6% rate against RHPs so far this season. I know the last time that Carrasco was big-time chalk, he threw a dud against Pittsburgh. He has 25 Ks in 16.1 home innings so far this season.
- Corbin Burnes – I always fall for Corbin Burnes. He has the stuff to be really good but he has a manager that refuses to let his starting pitchers actually pitch. Lindblom was pulled after 4 innings and 63-ish pitches on Saturday. If Burnes is given any kind of a leash (Counsell has weakened the bullpen quite a bit), he has a great upside in a pitcher’s park.
- Mike Minor – Minor takes on what might be the weakest team against LHPs in all of baseball. He just needs to navigate Kyle Lewis (and maybe Nola-Seager) and should be in line for his best start of the 2020 season.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cincinnati Reds (-118) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Seeing the total sit at 9.5 makes me feel like I need to consider stacks of both teams. This is just one of those games where I am not really excited to play either SP, but not really all that happy about stacking either team. I suppose that could backfire with the game total but I just think this game is an MME target.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 days.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brad Miller, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last 7 days.
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Boston Red Sox (-122) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Orioles – Wade LeBlanc
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5 runs. I am very interested in all the RHBs in this game as Godley has shown reverse splits for much of his career and LeBlanc has done a solid job limiting LHBs. Devers is a guy that doesn’t fit the criteria but he is swinging a hot bat and has had success against LeBlanc.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 7 games.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-121)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Braves – Josh Tomlin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Atlanta Braves roster has a cumulative ISO of .329 in 79 PAs against Eflin in their careers. I have been using Eflin because his K rate has jumped but I think this is a spot to avoid him because he’s just giving up too many runs to make those Ks worth anything. Tomlin did manage to get 4 innings in his last start as he works on being stretched out. He was extremely efficient as he finished with 51 pitches. I just don’t know that he can be THAT efficient again while throwing 65-70 pitches.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 7 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over their last 5 games.
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New York Yankees @ New York Mets – PPD COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – N/A
Mets – N/A
Rundown:
PPD after a Mets player tested positive on Thursday
NYY 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
NYM 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-250)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. These two teams have played 5 games so far and Indians pitching has K’d Detroit hitters 50 times. McKenzie had a sparkling debut against them on Saturday and struck out 11. Skubal is a big prospect who got knocked around in his MLB debut. He gets a better match-up here (I don’t think the White Sox are better than the Indians) as the Indians just struggle more against LHPs at this point.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last 7 games
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers (-164) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Burnes was finally able to bypass the 80 pitch mark as he finished his last start having thrown 83 pitches and completing 5 innings. I wish I knew how to predict what Craig Counsell would do with his SP but at this point, I have to assume that the only way Burnes is completing 6 innings is that he is extremely clean in the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Luis Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over their last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .058 over the last 4 games.
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Padres – Adrian Morejon
Rundown:
No Vegas Information yet.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Dodgers – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Dodgers are once again huge favorites here as the Dodgers roster has an OPS of .933 against Senzatela across a 92 PA sample size. Stripling has been struggling as he has allowed 5 HRs over his last 2 starts (7.2 innings). He has just 6 Ks in those 2 starts.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .136 over the last 7 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics (-127)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Bundy is coming off of his worst start as an Angel. He has faced OAK twice so far this season and has been absolutely dominant. He has 17 Ks with just 1 walk in 13.2 innings against Oakland and he has allowed just 1 run on 7 hits. Montas was absolutely lit up in his last start but I expect him to bounce back a bit here. He has an avg against him of just .182 at home so far this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Rendon is 16 for 30 over his last 7 games.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last 7 games
Arizona Diamondbacks (-119) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Giants – Trevor Cahill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This is a tough game to figure out as Weaver bounced back in his last start to fire his best start of the season (by far) and now faces a weaker SF lineup that has been pretty hot at the plate, even though most of that hot run has come against LHPs. Cahill reached the 65 pitch mark in his last start and should be able to throw up to about 80 pitches in this spot.
ARI 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over their last 7 games.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over the last 7 games.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-128)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Mike Minor
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Seattle has a team ISO of just .114 against LHPs so far this season and Minor’s best start did come against this SEA squad, even though he went just 4 innings. He hasn’t looked very good but I really think this is a spot where Minor gets back to being the guy that he has been the last couple of seasons.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over their last 7 games.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Lewis
4-star plays: Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .159 over the last 7 games.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Trent Thornton
Rays – Josh Fleming
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over their last 8 games.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over their last 6 games.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals (-158)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Humberto Mejia
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total set at 10 runs. Seeing this game with a total set at 10 really caught me off guard as the Marlins have been pretty light hitting over the last week. They certainly can score some runs via multiple singles and stolen bases but that makes it harder to have big innings. Sanchez has allowed 17 runs in 18 innings so far this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .088 over their last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over their last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins (-156) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Matt Wisler/Devin Smeltzer
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. We get the Twins against an LHP here, which will have me all over a few of them for stacking purposes but the Twins need Donaldson and Garver back.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Ildemaro Vargas, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last 7 games.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. This game intrigues me greatly as it looks like the wind could be blowing out to CF (not a huge wind speed but still out). Yu has been extremely strong but CHW has hit an ASTOUNDING 27 HRs over their last 7 games.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .384 over their last 7 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Kris Byrant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over their last 8 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Toronto Blue Jays: This one might be a bit off the wall here as the hitting environment in TB is less than ideal. I just love the power at the top half of the lineup and even the bottom half has a couple of guys capable of a double-dong performance. I expect this stack to be lower owned and I feel like today is the day that I want to be a bit different with my stacks.
- Boston Red Sox: I expect this stack to be pretty popular overall but they have burned a ton of people this season so that could keep their ownership in check. LeBlanc just isn’t very good and BOS is loaded with RHBs that hit LHPs well plus a couple of LHBs that are swinging it really well (Devers, Moreland, Verdugo).
- Minnesota Twins: If you’ve read this article at all over the last month, you know my Twins fandom. I believe in this offense a TON and they’ve hit LHPs really well over the last couple of seasons. Cruz should be back in the lineup and has a ridiculous ISO against LHPs over the last year and a few months.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe has an ISO of .316 over the last 7 days, an ISO of .317 at home, and an ISO of .333 against RHPs this season. He is really showing off his immense talent as he’s just needed to stay healthy. If the Blue Jays start Thornton just a few days after he got lit up in less than in inning, I could see a rough start for him, again.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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