Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Zac Gallen – Gallen has made 5 starts so far this season and has allowed just 8 runs (never more than 2 runs in a start) but somehow has a record of 0-0 on the season. While he has allowed 1 HR in each of the 5 starts, he has strikeout totals of 6, 9, 6, 7, and 8 in those starts. He has made his starts against SD, LAD, @COL, HOU, and OAK so he’s worked his way through some tough spots. I know the SF offense has been doing damage but they’ve been doing so, mostly, against LHPs.
- Dustin May – We know to target pitchers against the Rockies when they are on the road, especially after a homestand. Buehler was struggling to go into Friday’s start but managed to pick up 11 strikeouts en route to an easy W. May and the Dodgers have opened up as a HUGE -220 favorite at home.
- Justus Sheffield – Being on Margevicius against a weak TEX offense worked out for us on Friday so why not go back to the well with an SP that was extremely hyped but hasn’t put it together at the MLB level yet. He is coming off of back-to-back strong starts as he has gone 12 innings, allowed 10 hits, just 1 earned run and only 1 walk with 11 strikeouts.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-113)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Kim will be making his 2nd start as he transitions into the starting rotation. He went just 3.2 innings in his first one and didn’t make it to 60 pitches. He allowed just a solo HR but managed just 1 K as well. I think it’s a wait and see the situation with him. Miley hasn’t gone deep at all either so we are probably looking at 4-5 innings at the max for each of these pitchers.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Matt Davidson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 against LHPs in 2020.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs in 2020.
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Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs. Cobb shut down Boston to begin the season and has looked pretty decent overall. The issue is that he’s trending down as he has gotten more and more hittable the last couple of starts and he has reverse splits and that’s pretty dangerous against the likes of Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez. Perez is in a rough spot because the Orioles do their best damage against LHPs this season, even if they are on a sudden losing streak.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Vazquez and Martinez are a combined 20 for 33 against Cobb.
BAL 5-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Pedro Severino, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 against LHPs in 2020.
Philadelphia Phillies (-114) @ Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Braves – Robbie Erlin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Erlin made his first start last time out and went 4 impressive, shutout innings, allowing just 1 run and striking out 5. Wheeler has been solid for PHI so far in his first season with the team. He hasn’t flashed a ton of K upside yet but I do expect it to come at some point.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Phil Gosselin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 7 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Tyler Flowers, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over their last 5 games.
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New York Yankees @ New York Mets – PPD COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – N/A
Mets – N/A
Rundown:
PPD after a Mets player tested positive on Thursday
NYY 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
NYM 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-171)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. McKenzie will be making his MLB debut in this game. He missed all of 2019 and part of 2018 with back and forearm strains. At this point, I would expect him to throw maybe 60 pitches. Boyd has allowed 7 HRs over his last 3 starts. He is fully stretched out but has yet to go longer than 5 innings.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers (-162) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Josh Lindblom
Pirates – Derek Holland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Lindblom has flashed a ton of K upside but he makes mistakes and allows runs. I like him in this spot but I have my expectations tempered at this point. Holland just got absolutely lit up in his last start, allowing 5 HRs and 13 hits in 5 innings. He did make a relief appearance recently and looked sharp.
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over their last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .052 over the last 4 games.
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (-117)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Padres – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Bielak has given up just 3 runs over his last 16 innings (3 starts) but he doesn’t strike many batters. He is somebody that I have been interested in but I just don’t think this is a great spot with the amount of contact he is allowing. Davies has racked up 24 Ks over his 27.2 innings and has allowed just 19 hits. The Astros are striking out at just an 18.9% rate over the last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last 7 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Rockies were absolutely dominated by Buehler on Friday night. That performance really shocked me as he had been pretty dreadful so far this season. Freeland has looked much better in 2020 but he faces a team that has done some very good things against him. The Dodgers roster is 40 for 114 in their careers against Freeland.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .137 over the last 7 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics (-138)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This will be the third time that Canning takes on Bassitt already this season. The Oakland A’s won the previous 2 match-ups. Both guys have had some struggles in 2020 but Canning has really struggled with control. He’s a guy that I generally like but I just can’t trust as he has allowed 4 HRs over his last 2 starts. Bassitt has solid surface numbers but he’s been trending down since a great start to the season.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 7 games.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 7 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-156) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I love Gallen and his ability. I have gone on record numerous times wondering why the Marlins would just deal him away during the season last year. He gets to take on an offense that has been rolling but doing so against LHPs. The Giants have a team ISO of just .145 against RHPs this season. Anderson has given up 9 runs over his last 10 innings of work.
ARI 5-star plays: Nick Ahmed
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over their last 7 games.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 games.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-128)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about here. Both of these teams lack any kind of punch in their offenses as a whole. I get those guys like Seager and Gallo make for great one-off options but the upside of these offenses is capped, even in plus situations.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over their last 7 games.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .137 over the last 7 games.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rays – Aaron Slegers
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over their last 8 games.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over their last 6 games.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals – GAME 1
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
Waiting on MIA SP and Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over their last 6 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over their last 6 games.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals – GAME 2
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
Waiting on MIA SP and Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over their last 6 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over their last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins (-156) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Twins just seem to struggle with the Royals and I am not sure why. This will be Singer’s third consecutive start against the Twins. He has thrown 10.2 innings and allowed 9 hits and 5 runs while walking 6 and striking out 6 in the previous two starts. This will be Dobnak’s second straight start against KC as he allowed just 3 hits (2 Solo HRs) across 5.1 innings in beating them last time out. He doesn’t rack up the Ks but he’s allowed just 4 runs in 25.1 innings this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last 7 games.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Undecided
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on the White Sox SP and Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .305 over their last 7 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Kris Byrant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over their last 8 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Philadelphia Phillies: This is more about how ineffective I expect Erlin to be longterm as an opener/starter. He overachieved a bit in going 4 innings in his first start with ATL. I think he’s in for a rude awakening here as Harper and Gregorius are a combined 7 for 10 with 3 extra-base hits against Erlin (both LHBs).
- Boston Red Sox: I just want to pick on Alex Cobb before it becomes a universal thing in the future. He started the season strong but is starting to allow some runs and this BOS squad has a team average of .342 against him, over 146 ABs.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Anderson has allowed 17 baserunners and 9 runs over his last 10 innings. This is more of a gut feeling than anything about what the Diamondbacks have done against LHPs. The team does have 4 HRs in 51 ABs against Anderson in their careers.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
Reyes HR’d on Friday and now has 4 HRs over his last 7 games. He is also racking up hits and walks as he has 14 hits and 6 walks over his last 10 games. On the season, he is 6 for 15 with 4 HRS (has just 6 total) against the Detroit Tigers. Boyd has given up 7 HRs over his last 3 starts (13.1 innings). He has allowed multiple HRs in 4 of his 5 starts this season.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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