Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Aaron Nola – It feels really weird to be writing Nola as the top SP during my initial look at this slate. There are a lot of mediocre pitching options on this slate so we have to pick the ones that we feel strongest about. Nola is a small favorite on the road here and this game could close with the lowest total on the slate. Nola has a ridiculous 39.8% K rate so far in 2020.
- Adrian Houser – I think Houser has sneaky upside but he is far from safe thanks to who his manager is and how quick that manager is to go to the bullpen in the 5th and 6th innings. We just saw Bieber mow down this PIT lineup and while I still contend that the PIT lineup doesn’t strike out a lot, I do know that teams can go into contact slumps.
- Nick Margevicius – I honestly can’t believe I have Margevicius listed here after my initial look. I remember the guy that SD basically gave up on and dealt away. I was surprised to see them move a young SP as they are approaching big things on the West Coast. Margevicius has looked solid for SEA and now he draws a TEX squad that is not hitting for a ton of power overall.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cincinnati Reds (-121) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Anthony DeSclafani
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. DeSclafani had been really strong in 2020 and then he came out and threw everything thigh-high, right down the middle against PIT in his last start. Hudson just isn’t stretched out enough for us to consider him at this point, which is frustrating because I really love his groundball ability.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Winker has 17 hits with 6 walks to go with 6 HRs over his last 10 starts.
STL 5-star plays: Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 31 for 74 against DeSclafani.
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Boston Red Sox (-112) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Colton Brewer/Darwinzon Hernandez
Orioles – John Means/Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 1o runs. The Orioles are just 4-12 at home so far this season and we get the Red Sox as a road favorite. We get two openers in this game, which is extremely frustrating from a fantasy perspective. Means just hasn’t looked good at all and then he’s expected to be followed by Lopez, who has given up 4 runs in 4.2 innings so far this season. Brewer has allowed at least a run in each of his last 3 appearances.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs in 2020.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over their last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (EVEN)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I like both sides as far as pitchers go here. Fried has been really good when at home in his brief MLB career and Nola has given up just 2 runs with 30 Ks over his last 3 starts. I know the Phillies are hitting a lot of HRs right now but I feel like this game total should creep down to 8 runs by the time the first pitch happens.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: 17 HRs over their last 9 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over their last 5 games.
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New York Yankees @ New York Mets – PPD COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – N/A
Mets – N/A
Rundown:
PPD after a Mets player tested positive on Thursday
NYY 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
NYM 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
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Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-176)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Fulmer/Tyler Alexander
Indians – Adam Plutko
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Plutko gets a great match-up as the Tigers are striking out at about a 30% rate against RHPs this season. The issue is the Tigers just knocked him out after 2.2 innings in his last start. Fulmer looks to be locked into about 60 pitches per outing right now and we should get Alexander as the long-reliever.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 over the last 5 games.
Milwaukee Brewers (-159) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Kuhl is looking like a totally different pitcher in his return from Tommy-John surgery. His K numbers are rising and that brings him into play here, especially against a team that is striking out at a 28.8% rate against RHPs this season. Houser faced PIT earlier this season and allowed just 1 run on a single hit (an HR). He has some K ability in his arm but the worry is that Counsell is so quick to the bullpen.
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over their last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 6 games.
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (-120)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Padres just keep hitting big HRs. At this point, I expect them to hit a Grand Slam every game for the rest of the season. Houston started to turn on their bats in Coors but now they head to a much more spacious ballpark. I generally believe in fading a team the first game or two after they visited Coors field.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 6 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last 7 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Buehler has not looked like an ace yet this season as he just continues to run into trouble. His best start of the season did come at home, but even then it was only good for 17.2 DK points. Gray was solid in his last start as his K number jumped up and he was at home. He’s actually become a better pitcher at Coors than when he is on the road. The Dodgers roster has a career ISO of .219 against him in 166 PAs.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .100 over the last 6 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Bellinger is 10 for 16 with 5 extra-base hits against Gray in his career.
Los Angeles Angels (-109) @ Oakland Athletics
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Fiers has given up 4 HRs in 7.2 innings pitched against the Angels so far this season. This just doesn’t line up to be a great start for Fiers as the Angels have done a lot of damage against him. Heaney has held the A’s to an average of .149 (14 for 94) with 32 Ks in their careers.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Mike Trout is 12 for 33 with 5 HRs and 4 2Bs against Fiers in his career.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs in 2020.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-111) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Webb has flashed some ability but he is going to give up some runs. Ray has been all over the place with his pitches all season so far. He looked really good against the Dodgers last time out, despite walking 6 batters. He now has 20 walks in 23 innings pitched this season.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over their last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 against LHPs in 2020.
Texas Rangers (-117) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Mariners – Nick Margevicius
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Allard has made 2 really good starts this season but is coming off of a terrible one that he made at Coors Field. Margevicius has made 2 starts and has allowed just 2 runs over 9.1 innings. He is getting stretched out and while I don’t think he has a ton of upside, long-term, he is pitching really well and he is facing a team that is struggling to hit for any kind of power.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over their last 6 games.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Austin Nola, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .104 against LHPs in 2020.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-158)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. We get 2 offenses that are rolling from a power standpoint over the last week. The way the offenses are mashing (28 HRs) over the last 6 games respectively, I just can’t believe the total is set at just 8.5 runs. Shoemaker has allowed 6 HRs over his last 3 starts and he was actually tossed in his last start after arguing balls and strikes. Yarbrough has given up 3 HRs over his last 12.1 innings.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .250 over their last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .249 over their last 6 games.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals (-210)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Daniel Castano
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. This one is all about Corbin and the Nationals. I wish the Marlins were throwing an RHP in this spot as I wanted to be on Luis Garcia along with Soto and Turner. Cabrera is hitting .500 with 4 HRs against LHPs so far this season. Corbin should bounce back here after his worst start of the season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over their last 6 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over their last 6 games.
Minnesota Twins (-145) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Jake Odorizzi
Royals – Danny Duffy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Duffy was dominant in his last start, which came against these Twins. His start prior to that was against the Twins as well and he didn’t fare as well. He has given up 3 HRs to the Twins over his last 9 innings pitched. I always love using Twins bats when they face LHPs. Both of Odorizzi’s starts since coming off of the IL have come against KC. He has allowed 4 runs while striking out 8 in 7 innings. He managed to get to 79 pitches in his last outing, so I have to assume he’s safe to throw around 90 here.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox (-108) @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Cubs – Jon Lester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Getting an early look at the weather for this game, I see some wind blowing out to LF. That is something that we need to focus on since both teams are throwing LHPs in this game. I expect both lineups to be very RHB heavy to try and take advantage of the platoon split with the wind. Lester hasn’t been picking up the Ks and we know that Keuchel isn’t much for Ks himself.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .309 over their last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Kris Byrant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over their last 9 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have 49 HRs so far this season (through 26 games). They have an overall ISO of .213 as a team and now take on an SP that half of the projected starting lineup has an OPS of over .930 against. They have 19 HRs over their last 7 games.
- Minnesota Twins: This Twins roster has an ISO of .189 in their careers against Duffy. They finished last season with an ISO of .236 against LHPs. I will always stack them against LHPs as I know the power upside in this lineup. I just wish Donaldson was healthy and contributing to those numbers.
- Cleveland Indians: I am going to continue to ride the Indians wagon as the offense is starting to wake up a little bit. Just waiting on Lindor to really get it going and the 4 main bats (Ramirez-Lindor-Santana-F.Reyes) should really start to do damage as I expect their SPs to regress slightly after such a hot start.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
Cruz is 9 for 25 in his career against Duffy. Of those 9 hits, 5 of them have left the ballpark and he has 10 RBI. The numbers work out to an ISO of .600 against Duffy. Cruz has an ISO of .489 against LHPs between the 2019 and 2020 seasons. He picked up a late HR on Thursday night against the Brewers and I love getting him during his patented hot streaks.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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