Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Shane Bieber – Bieber has been absolutely dominant and elite so far in 2020. He has been the best pitcher in all of baseball to put it bluntly. His K rate is just your average 42.9% through 34.2 innings. He can give up HRs but 4 of his 5 starts have returned 29+ DK points on the season.
- Dinelson Lamet – Lamet has made 5 starts so far this season and has allowed just 1 earned run in each of those starts. He has an impressive K rate of 32.1% on the season. The Texas lineup, outside of Gallo, really lacks punch overall as their ISOs are ridiculously low (.136 overall).
- Kevin Gausman – I went down to Gausman because of his DK price. He makes a TON of sense as an SP2 option as he just keeps pitching pretty well, despite giving up a few runs. His K numbers have been really impressive and he could get an Angels lineup that offers K upside from the bottom half of the lineup. He has a K rate of 31.8% so far this season.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cincinnati Reds (-139) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. We get an interesting SP match-up as Gray has been really good and Wainwright has looked sharp in 2020. There are a couple of hitters in this game that are scorching at the plate so I would prefer to look at them as one-offs in my builds and will be using both pitchers.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Winker has 16 hits with 6 walks to go with 6 HRs over his last 9 starts.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over their last 6 games.
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Boston Red Sox (-136) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski
Rundown:
This game finally has a run total set at 9.5 runs. Eovaldi dominated the Orioles in his first start of 2020 and has flashed double-digit K upside but this match-up just isn’t an easy one. The Orioles have been swinging it really well. Asher hasn’t flashed a lot for K upside but he has been a bit more consistent than Eovaldi has. I don’t see the need to look at using either SP at this point.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs in 2020.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Pedro Severino, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs in 2020.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays (-110) – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. That’s an interesting number to me as this game is only a 7 inning game. That tells me we will see some runs here so we can’t just ignore it. The baseball has been FLYING in Buffalo so far and both teams are hitting a TON of HRs over the last week to 10 days.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: 17 HRs over their last 9 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .299 over their last 6 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Blue Jays – Trent Thornton
Rundown:
No Vegas information for this game yet.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: 17 HRs over their last 9 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .299 over their last 6 games.
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New York Mets (-175) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Seth Lugo
Marlins – Daniel Castano
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Mets are going with more of a bullpen game while the Marlins are running out an LHP who they scored 5 runs against across 4.1 innings. They managed to hit 2 HRs against Castano in that game.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith, JD Davis
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 against LHPs in 2020.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .087 over the last 7 days.
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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-168)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Turnbull made 2 starts against the White Sox in 2019 and lasted just 8.1 innings while allowing 5 earned runs on 5 hits. He managed to strike out 14 hitters in those 2 starts. Giolito has been all over the place so far this season as he is racking up strikeouts but is walking a ton of batters. He flashed reverse splits last season and that is a bit worrisome against the Tigers as Schoop, Jones, and Miggy all offer a tough match-up (yes, Miggy is no cake-walk yet).
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .295 over their last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-116)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I will be honest, I am going to be glued to this game on Thursday. Mostly because my girlfriend is a die-hard Brewers fan while I am a die-hard Twins fan and we have a little bet on this series (I won both bets in the last series as we bet on just the 2 games the Twins ended up winning). I am a big fan of Woodruff (don’t tell her that) and while I love Berrios as well, he just hasn’t been pitching very well this season. I am shocked to see the Twins favored here. The Brewers bats seem to be coming alive right now.
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over their last 6 games.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over their last 6 games.
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Texas Rangers @ San Diego Padres (-177)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. I expected some nice things from Gibson as he should benefit from the new park in Texas. He hasn’t been too bad so far this season but he draws a tough match-up as he has shown reverse splits so far in this shortened season. Lamet is somebody that I just can’t stop using and he gets a great match-up as TEX lacks much for power.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over their last 6 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies (-129)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 11.5 runs. This is an interesting game as it’s a Coors game but Marquez has been solid at Coors and Javier has flashed upside. The one worry that I have with Javier here is his extreme flyball rates throughout his minor league career. Flyballs keep going and going and going in this ballpark.
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .100 over the last 6 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics (-146)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Alex Young
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Young had been working out of the bullpen but made his first start of the season on the 15th and threw the ball pretty well, exiting the game after 63 pitches. Manaea has been pretty bad this season but he is coming off of his best start of the season. He still isn’t being stretched out much, even after 5 starts. I just don’t see either SP in this game being somebody we HAVE to get exposure to.
ARI 5-star plays: Nick Ahmed
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Ahmed has 11 hits and 10 RBI over his last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs in 2020.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants (-120)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Mike Trout is 7 for 17 with 3 HRs off of Gausman, while Rendon is 7 for 21 with 3 extra-base hits against him. That duo is going to make a great mini-stack on most nights. Suarez will be making his 2020 debut so we need to learn what his pitch count might be, but I just don’t see him being in play. Gausman has been pretty filthy at this point but he still allows runs. He is going to make sense as a GPP option on this slate.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over their last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Mauricio Dubon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against LHPs in 2020.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-244) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I am a bit shocked that Kershaw and the Dodgers aren’t greater favorites in this spot. Kikuchi is extremely hit or miss as he gave up 36 HRs in 161.2 innings in 2019. Kershaw gets a pretty weak lineup and it’s a lineup that has an ISO of just over .100 against LHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over their last 7 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 against LHPs in 2020.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – John Curtiss/Trevor Richards
Yankees – James Paxton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I like seeing the high total here as we should expect some power to be displayed as both teams have a couple of guys swinging it really well. The Rays are going with an opener, followed by somebody who could just as easily start the game in a traditional manner. Paxton’s best performance of the season came just two starts ago against this TB squad.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .276 over their last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 over their last 6 games.
Cleveland Indians (-230) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. Bieber has 54 Ks in 34.2 innings so far this season and he has a ridiculous K/BB ratio of 9:1. Each of his last 4 starts has come on the road so this spot doesn’t worry me at all, especially with how much of a pitcher’s park PNC is. Williams has been respectable so far this season and with how the Indians offense has struggled overall, I could see him being usable in our GPP player pool.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 over their last 5 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No thank you when facing Shane Bieber.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Los Angeles Dodgers: I am a little shocked to see them land in the #1 spot for me during my first look. Kikuchi isn’t terrible overall and the fact that he is LH helps him in this match-up. With that said, he allowed 36 HRs in 161.2 innings during his rookie season (2019).
- San Diego Padres: I am torn here as I like Gibson quite a bit but the duo of Tatis Jr and Machado are in great spots, while guys like Hosmer, Myers, and Cronenworth are in solid spots. The pitching for the Main Slate is really solid overall so it’s not easy pinpointing who I want to target in my first look.
- Cleveland Indians: I know I said above that Williams has been respectable but I just can’t quit the Indians as they look like they are ready to bust out. It’s just a matter of getting a few guys to go off at the same time, rather than the 2 guys per game it seems like recently.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
Story is somebody that jumped off the page immediately when I took a first look at this slate from a pitch profile standpoint. He lines up really well against Javier’s flyball pitch selection. His ISO’s are all over .200 against Javier’s pitches and the heat maps seem to line up really well. Story has an OPS of 1.146 and an ISO of .352 at home this season.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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