Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Editor’s Note – Did you know sportsbetting is taking over?! MLB, NFL, and NBA have crazy options these days, and the public makes mistakes!! Our dynamic modeling over at SportsBetArmy adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Tyler Glasnow – Glasnow looked extremely sharp in his opening start but wasn’t allowed to pitch thru 5 innings to get the win. He racked up 9 Ks in just 4 innings of work. He finished last season’s injury-shortened campaign with a K/9 of 11.3. He’s the largest favorite on the board.
- Tyler Chatwood – Chatwood looked excellent in his first start of the season and now faces a very weak Pittsburgh lineup. The worry is ALWAYS going to be control but I liked what I saw so I want to get a piece of him while the getting is good! He allowed just 1 run in 8 innings against PIT in 2019.
- Jordan Lyles – I am going back to the well against the Giants here. Lyles is making his first start of the season (pitched in relief against ARI). We don’t have a line on the game yet as the Giants play this hide-and-seek game with their starting rotation. The Texas offense is struggling a bit so the Win isn’t a guarantee at all but I love what I have seen from Lyles over the last couple seasons as far as re-inventing himself at the MLB level.
We have a BRAND NEW update to our MLB Domination Station lineup optimizer with advanced user-controlled scoring systems inside. You control how the lineups are built from three main uses of our projections: Points based, DFSA Grades, or the unique blend of Hybrid Scoring! The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like 
Love 
or Dislike 
a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the MLB Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
Anderson is making his season debut here while Flaherty gets to take on a team that is struggling at the plate. Not often we see the Brewers a home underdog but Flaherty is a dominant SP. Flaherty struck out 35 Brewers in 25 innings last season but he did manage to also allow 8 HRs against them. Anderson just doesn’t scare me much at this point in his career and hard contact could be an issue here. There is no line for the game at the moment as there is a chance it doesn’t happen after Friday’s game was PPD due to positive tests.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Goldschmidt has dominated Brett Anderson in his career
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Braun has really nice BvP against Flaherty but a lot of the MIL lineup is struggling to begin the season.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-194)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 and I can see it moving to 10.5 by the time the first pitch rolls around. The Yankees are just an extremely dangerous team and Godley just struggles to get outs consistently. Tanaka is certainly a solid SP but we have to wonder how he is going to fare here after getting drilled with a line-drive to the head in summer camp. He has the upside we need as long as he is given the leash but I just don’t know how stretched out he is.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: The Red Sox were shut down by Montgomery on Friday but the roster actually has really strong numbers against Tanaka in their careers.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
GPP Note: All the power, all the time. Godley can give up runs with the best of them.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-126)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Michael Wacha
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
Opened up with a total set at 10.5 runs after Friday night’s game finished at 21 runs. I loved the spot for the Braves on Friday and while I don’t LOVE it as much Saturday, I still think its a great spot for some offense here. Wacha has struggled against the Braves and Toussaint, while very talented, hasn’t put it together at the MLB level. I like both sites for offense here.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: The Mets are in an interesting spot as Toussaint has had a high walk rate at the MLB level and walk issues can lead to big innings.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Right back on the Braves after they scored 11 runs as one of my top stacks.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB ReSearch Station includes today’s
DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as apart of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-122)
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
The game opened with a run total at 9. I expect this to be more of a pitcher’s duel but I have some interest in the Twins side because Carrasco has not fared well against them. There are some strong BvP numbers in their favor. I don’t think Maeda is in play as an SP but I also have a hard time trusting the CLE bats outside of the top few guys.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Cleveland doesn’t intrigue me much as Maeda is just a guy that I never pick on. He gets things done and rarely gets blown up. CLE is certainly always in play as a stack but I might look elsewhere.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 23 for 55 with 6 HRs against Carrasco
Cincinnati Reds (-162) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Rundown:
This game also opened with a total set at 9 runs. Bauer just faced DET in his first start of the season and picked up 13 Ks in 6.1 innings while allowing just 2 hits. He has massive upside and after CIN allowed DET to beat them on Friday, I think we see a pretty focused Trevor Bauer. Fulmer was given a little longer leash than I thought he would get in his first appearance but I also don’t see him getting much larger of one in this start. The word in DET was they were going to ease him back in and use him more like an opener at times.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: We are looking at stacking CIN to take advantage of the bullpen having to be used behind Fulmer.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: Most likely fading DET bats but the two guys above have a solid history against Bauer
Tampa Bay Rays (-210) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Orioles – Wade LeBlanc
Rundown:
Glasnow was extremely impressive in his first start but ran into a bit of a wall. I wasn’t expecting to see him cross the 70 pitch mark in that start but that’s a good sign for us here as he should sit in the 85 pitch range. He is a monster favorite so he is definitely in play. The TB offense hasn’t really come alive just yet but I will be using a few RHBs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Hunter Renfroe, Jose Martinez
GPP Note: Each of the 3 guys above had ISOs at or above .293 against LHPs in 2019
BALT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No interest in attacking Glasnow
Winning at MLB DFS is about correlation and constructing lineups that can actually win a big GPP. Take full advantage of positive variance with an optimizer giving you the ability to build around historically winning combinations of players.
MLB DFS Stacking Strategy and Setup
This video will introduce you to how our Domination Station Lineup Optimizer works for MLB Stacking. Once you are ready to give it a try click here to proceed to the MLB DFS Army Domination Station Lineup Optimizer!
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Gio Gonzalez
Royals – Ronald Bolanos
Rundown:
This game has no line yet as I assume it’s because of the SP match-up (whether Bolanos is an opener and the length in Gio’s expected start). Gio came in and got absolutely wrecked by the Twins but we should have a short memory here as that Twins squad mashes LHPs. The Royals aren’t overly dangerous but Gio isn’t the same pitcher he was just a couple of seasons ago. Bolanos has some talent as he was dealt by the Padres for some relief help.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: The White Sox let me down a bit Friday night but short-term memory here. Bolanos should only go around 3 innings and the bullpen isn’t all too scary.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: The Royals are a sneaky stack if you include Franco and Soler. There is upside here after we saw Gio get smacked around by the Twins.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-143) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
I was a bit shocked to see this game open with a total of 10 runs. I know the Dodgers offense is extremely dangerous but I have been a fan of Luke Weaver for a while now. I think he has a very bright future while I also love the upside of Urias. I am leaning towards betting the under and being on both SPs for GPP purposes (Weaver obviously a deeper GPP play). Bellinger is 3 for 5 with a walk and 2 HRs against Weaver in his career.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: We are always getting stacks of this Dodgers lineup. They are so deep and dangerous.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: I have no interest in the Diamondbacks against Urias
San Diego Padres (-117) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Joey Lucchesi
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
Saturday’s game has opened with a total set at 12.5, which is a full run higher than Friday night’s game opened at. We saw plenty of runs in Friday’s game so I feel even better about attacking this game as we see two softer tossing LHPs takes the mound. The Rockies have had a better history in terms of facing the opposing SP but the Padres are just more dangerous right now in my opinion.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Coors Field, take 2!
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: I almost added Matt Kemp above. I think he’s sneaky if he finds himself as the DH here.
I want to say a quick congradulations to ‘DougDiggler’ for taking home $50k on Saturday! Come check out the exact tools he used to make it happen! -> BECOME A MEMBER <-
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Cubs – Tyler Chatwood
Rundown:
No line or total set for the game as I assume we are playing the wind game and trying to figure out who it will benefit at Wrigley! Both of these SPs looked really strong in their season debuts, which was a bit of a shocker for various reasons. Chatwood has struggled with control for a couple of seasons now and Keller looked lost at the MLB level last season, even though he’s a very highly touted prospect. Keller allowed 2 HRs to the Cubs in 9.1 innings last season. He struggled mightily away from home but he has flashed a very high K rate.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: I just don’t see myself playing many Pirate hitters at all this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: T
Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Once again we sit and wait on Gabe Kapler and his wild thinking that his Giants staff is full of guys that can sit around and wait to find out if they are throwing an inning or 3 on any given day. The “gamesmanship” really isn’t much fun and it gets to be pretty annoying. Lyles is making his first start of the season as the Rangers didn’t need a #5 starter to begin the season. He has a solid upside against an overall weak SF lineup. I know they just knocked around Mike Minor a bit but I will continue to attack SF with SPs all season long.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Just interested in GPP one-offs from TEX
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: A couple of the SF bats have been getting it done but I would probably only use them as one-offs or mini-stack options.
Oakland Athletics (-146) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
The game has opened with a run total of 9.5 runs, in a pitcher’s park. Kikuchi struggled a ton to start the season and last season against OAK, he allowed 5 HRs in 21 innings. Something has to give in this game as Kikuchi continues to struggle but the OAK lineup isn’t firing on all cylinders. Which side gets right? Seattle bats continue to surprise me (mainly Crawford and Lewis). Fiers isn’t fooling anybody on the mound these days so we could see some runs in this game.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson
GPP Note: The OAK offense has to bust out soon, don’t they?
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Lewis just keeps racking up multi-hit games!
Houston Astros (-160) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
There were 19 walks in Friday night’s game. I am going to go on a limb and saying that it won’t happen again. Greinke struggled a bit in his season debut and Canning looked sharp early and then kind of hit a wall. The game has a total of just 9 runs so I think both SPs make for interesting GPP options as Greinke should get lucky and avoid having to face Mike Trout.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: I always recommend stacking the Astros as they should break out at some point but Springer, Altuve, and Bregman are all struggling to begin the season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: BvP combined for Upton and Pujols is 26 for 72 with 13 extra-base hits.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
-
- Colorado Rockies: I know you might be surprised to see COL here over a team like the Yankees (who I didn’t even list!). I love the Yankees and so will everybody else. After reading that you are probably like well, you still chose a team in Coors! You are right, I did but I chose the team in that game that I think goes lower owned than the opponent (SD). I am a big fan of the Story-Arenado combo vs LHPs and Blackmon is no slouch against them.
- Atlanta Braves: I am going back to ATL here as they made me look like I know what I am talking about on Friday night (scoring 11 runs). Wacha just isn’t what he used to be and that’s a tough thing against a lineup with so much power in it. Wacha allows way too much contact at this point to navigate this lineup cleanly.
- Minnesota Twins: I honestly debated putting the Rays here as my off-the-wall stack but they just haven’t shown me anything so I am going back to my Twins. They have knocked Carrasco around a decent amount and they just beat Clevinger on Friday night after getting owned by Bieber. Carrasco allowed 18 HRs in 80 innings during the 2019 season and he threw just 7.1 innings against MIN but allowed 13 hits and 8 runs.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Arenado is 7 for 19 with 2 HRs against Lucchesi in his career. He has ALWAYS dominated against LHPs, especially at home. Arenado hasn’t crossed the 9 DK point mark yet this season but he does in this game. He not only hits us an HR but he adds a double and drives in 4 runs. There are stronger BvP plays (even though his BvP is really good) but I just think this is the time for Arenado to get right at the plate.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
