Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball at this point. He is solid every time he takes the mound. The issue is that his average starts (strong starts for others) aren’t what we are paying for. He has had some issues with a team like MIA in the past and he is dealing with a finger and/or neck issue that caused him to be skipped in his last start.
- Lance Lynn – I wanted to point out Lynn over Paddack here because he’s been better this season and he generally gets forgotten about. He’s throwing a ton of pitches (as in he’s allowed to pitch deep) and not allowing runs as he has allowed just 4 earned runs in 5 starts. I know that SD and Chris Paddack are the favorites here but I trust Lynn to get me the points I am looking for.
- Casey Mize – I will be scouring the news wires to try and learn what we can expect to see from Mize today. I would imagine he has some sort of pitch count limitations but I am just pumped to see top SP prospects make their debuts. The game needs an infusion of young talent, especially on the mound. If we get the news that he’s going to throw 90 pitches, then I will certainly have a share somewhere (most likely DK as my SP2).
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas Information. With the games being 7 innings, it knocks hitters down but it boosts SPs for me on DK. Having a likelier chance to pick up CG bonuses as well as less time for a bullpen to blow the lead and take away the win makes things intriguing for me. The main issue is can I trust Flaherty to throw enough with all the time they’ve had off?
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Remember that this game is a 7 inning game due to the doubleheader rules for 2020.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 28.9% rate against RHPs in 2020.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Undecided
Cubs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information, as well as SP announcements
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: This is a 7 inning game.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 28.9% rate against RHPs in 2020
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Toronto Blue Jays (-113) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Orioles – Tommy Milone
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. This game on Tuesday night was loaded with runs and I have a feeling Wednesday’s day game is going to be as well. Roark has given up 3 HRs with 9 walks over his last 7 innings of work (2 starts). Milone has a couple of strong starts and a couple of not so strong starts. I just expect runs to happen here as this ballpark allows scoring to take place.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Travis Shaw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .327 over the last 7 days.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs in 2020.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Jake Arrieta
Red Sox – Kyle Hart
Rundown:
No Vegas information for this game yet. I expect this game to have a total of around 10 when the line opens. The Phillies bats have come alive recently and they take on an SP who made his MLB debut his last time out and didn’t fare well at all against TB. Arrieta has flashed some upside this season but I just don’t see it, even with BOS struggling overall. This certainly feels like a spot where they could wake up a bit.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: 17 HRs over their last 8 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over their last 7 days.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-119)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. Yet another game that looks to be full of offense on Wednesday. Wright struggles to get people out as he nibbles and throws a ton of pitches. Fedde has flashed some ability at the MLB level but has given up 8 runs in his career to this Braves roster in just 20 PAs.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over their last 7 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 days.
New York Mets (-235) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. We get an impressive SP match-up here! I know what you are thinking and yes, we do get a nice SP match-up. Lopez has looked really good this year and was extremely strong in 2019 when pitching at home. He allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings against the Mets earlier this season. We all know about deGrom and his back-to-back Cy Young awards.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs in 2020.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Roster has 32 Ks in 114 PAs against deGrom.
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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
White Sox – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. We get to see Casey Mize make his MLB debut. He was absolutely dominant at Auburn and has made just 26 minor league starts but the Tigers think that he’s ready and I am all for it. I love the idea of letting your top pitching prospects get some time at the MLB level as early as possible. Dunning has had the hype of his own over his minor league career so we get to see a pretty hyped up SP match-up.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .295 over their last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-166)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Twins – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. We get two veteran LHPs taking the mound here. Hill is making his return from the IL so we do not know what to expect in terms of pitch numbers but he did throw 60 in his most recent simulated game. Anderson has been used as an SP and as an opener so far this season but he draws a very dangerous match-up.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over their last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over their last 6 games.
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Texas Rangers @ San Diego Padres (-124)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7 runs. Another SP match-up that I am very intrigued by. Lynn has been a beast with the Rangers and I love Paddack’s future plus the TEX offense has been pretty weak this season. I don’t see myself stacking anything from this game but certainly understand a one-off SD bat with their power upside.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over their last 6 games.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros (-168) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 12.5 runs. This is definitely going to test me on Wednesday. I am a very big Valdez fan and have him in my dynasty league. I hate having to debate not starting him but the Rockies bats are so dangerous at home, especially against LHPs. Somebody needs to explain Castellani to me. His minor league profile said nothing about this kind of success at the MLB level. I expect some regression at some point, can it come via the Astros?
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 7 days.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics (-165)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. This is yet another low-key interesting SP match-up. Luzardo is a big-time prospect who got lit up his last time out while Kelly has really impressed so far in 2020. I am betting on a bounceback by Luzardo here and Kelly should see some regression at some point but I am not convinced it will happen here.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over their last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 7 games.
Los Angeles Angels (-119) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I think that total is too low for this spot. The Giants offense has been at its best when facing LHPs, especially when at home this season. We know that Cueto isn’t fooling anybody at this point in his career and Trout-Rendon offers the most upside of basically any duo outside of Betts-Bellinger (when Bellinger finally gets hot).
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over their last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Mauricio Dubon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 against LHPs in 2020.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-240) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Mariners – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I have a soft spot for Urias that I probably should head to get help for. Can you imagine if Dave Roberts allowed his young stud pitchers to throw more than 5 innings or 80 pitches on a nightly basis? Let the kids play man! Walker is an interesting guy as he was a big-time prospect, flashed upside, and then got hurt. He’s shown flashes this season but this is a very tough spot for him.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over their last 7 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 against LHPs in 2020.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-190)
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I don’t really need any Vegas information to know that I won’t be targeting this game for bats much, if at all. Glasnow has flashed his upside but has run into some struggles but he gets to face a watered-down Yankees lineup. Cole is just a beast and while he has struggled at times with TB, I just never intentionally pick on the better pitchers in baseball.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Choi is 5 for 8 with 3 2Bs and an HR against Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over their last 5 games.
Cleveland Indians (-166) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. This is a spot where I will be back on the Indians wagon as they have switch-hitters in the middle plus RHBs with pop against LHPs at the bottom. Nothing about the Pirates excite me, even after they were pesky against Carrasco on Tuesday night.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over their last 5 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 2 games (7 days).
Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
No Vegas information yet. We know how impressive Castillo can be but have you noticed how Keller has thrown to begin his season? This game is going to have an impressive pitching performance and quite possibly two of them. Winker has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over this last week and I hope a couple of days didn’t cool him off as he just goes overlooked.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Freddy Galvis, Joey Votto
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 4 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over their last 5 games.
Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Royals – Matt Harvey
Rundown:
No Vegas Information yet.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Freddy Galvis, Joey Votto
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 4 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over their last 5 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Minnesota Twins: I am sure you will get sick of my Minnesota Twins fandom but let me remind you what they did last season. They set an MLB record for HRs and they absolutely DESTROYED LHPs on their way to outslugging the Yankees on the season. Anderson isn’t a Blake Snell type LHP and if he allows contact, it most likely is going to be hard (he has 9 Ks in 13 innings).
- Houston Astros: I am pot committed when it comes to attacking Ryan Castellani. I generally like to wait a game before being on the visiting team to Coors but I just want the Astros and their bats to heat up in this spot. My goal is to be over the field, which can be difficult since people blindly stack Coors games whenever possible.
- Cleveland Indians: I have seen enough signs to realize that the Indians are starting to figure things out at the plate. Which is a good thing for them because I think their pitching regresses from such a hot start. I’ve been waiting to see Lindor and C.Santana start hitting the ball hard because Ramirez and F.Reyes have been doing it for a couple of weeks already.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
Sano hasn’t been overly impressive yet this season but he picked up a couple of doubles in Tuesday night’s game. He is 2 for 3 in his career against Brett Anderson with both of those hits going for extra-bases (HR, 2B). Sano had an ISO of .367 against LHPs in 2019 and he had an overall ISO of .293 at home in 2019.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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