Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has seen his walk rate jump the last 2 starts and is coming off of a rough performance against the Cubs. Do you know what can cure struggles? Facing an offense like the Pirates, who have played just 2 games over the last week. The K upside is intriguing and the win should be available here as the Indians are going to end up as one of my favorite offenses in the evening.
- Blake Snell – If we could get 100 pitches in a start from Snell, things would look great. His K rate is extremely impressive as he slowly gets stretched out. He gets to face a watered-down Yankees lineup that just doesn’t scare me from a real-life baseball perspective. I know they still have some power bats but we are talking about a former Cy-Young award winner here.
- David Peterson – I have been on the Marlins bats recently but it looks like a couple of the hotter hitters have gone a bit cold. Right now, Peterson is my choice for SP2 on DK at his price point. With the Mets being one of my top stacks on the night, I think Peterson is in a solid spot to not hurt our lineups.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (-183)
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game finally has opened up with a run total set at 8 runs. The weather at Wrigley should be pretty pitcher-friendly by the looks of things so Darvish is somebody we have to get exposure to. He probably offers us the highest ceiling on the slate while he is also a very strong favorite to get the win.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Miller was hot in the doubleheader on Monday.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 28.9% rate against RHPs in 2020.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-130) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Nate Pearson
Orioles – Wade LeBlanc
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Pearson has big-time upside in his arm but he struggles with control and has issues with LHBs right now. The Orioles team has been pretty hot recently so this lines up as a tough start for him. LeBlanc is just a weak SP who hopes to get enough outs while keeping his team in the game. There should be some offense here.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .327 over the last 7 days.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs in 2020.
Philadelphia Phillies (-117) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10.5 runs. I am a bit shocked by this high run total but there must be some solid hitting weather in the forecast. Eflin has flashed some K upside so far this season but has been giving up some runs. We know that Godley allows runs and I think the RHBs of PHI is in a great spot plus Harper is on fire.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: 13 HRs over their last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over their last 7 days.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-125)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Austin Voth
Braves – Josh Tomlin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. I am a big fan of Voth overall but I just don’t love this spot for him. This game has a pretty high total so we should expect some runs as we just saw 13 runs scored in Monday night’s game. Soto just keeps hitting HRs as he HR’d in the 9th inning, off of an EXTREMELY tough LHP. Should be a bullpen type game for the Braves.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over their last 7 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 days.
New York Mets (-176) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Marlins – Humberto Mejia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I was a little shocked to see the total at 9.5 as this park is built for pitching and Peterson has been really solid for the Mets to this point in the season. The Mets bats have been swinging it really well, especially Dominic Smith and Robinson Cano.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs in 2020.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team has 13 SBs over their last 6 games.
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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-165)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Skubal is a name that has been talked about a lot in 2020 as he had a great 2019 in the minors and appears to have a great future. When I saw his name I got really excited but then I learned we are looking at about a 3 inning start and that just removes him from consideration. Cease allowed just 1 earned run but 2 HRs against DET earlier this season and has flashed upside if he avoids walks.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 against LHPs in 2020.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Corbin Burnes
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I want to be interested in both SPs here but Burnes and his pitch counts have me worried and the Twins are always dangerous at the plate. Maeda looked extremely comfortable against the Brewers last week and we know the Brewers have been striking out a ton against RHPs this season (28.5%). Nelson Cruz looks like he’s getting one of his ridiculous hot streaks going.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over their last 7 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over their last 6 games.
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San Diego Padres (-112) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Adrian Morejon/Luis Patino
Rangers – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. There could be some fireworks here tonight as there is a huge debate out there about Tatis Jr swinging on a 3-0 pitch when SD was up 7. He hit that pitch a long way for a grand-slam. The Rangers threw behind the next hitter (Machado).
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .102 at home so far in 2020.
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros (-200)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The game on Monday played to a 2-1 total as Bielak was able to barely outduel Kyle Freeland. The Astros are much larger favorites on Tuesday night but I am a little shocked we see a total at 9 runs. I would have thought maybe an 8.5 game total.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .117 on the road in 2020.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 7 days.
Oakland Athletics (-150) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. We have to make sure Montas makes this start as he was scratched from his last start and then had his turn basically skipped over the weekend. Weaver has looked bad and has yet to go deep at all. That’s not a good thing when facing an OAK offense that can get hot any inning (HRs in bunches).
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over their last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Trevor Cahill
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Bundy is going to be VERY popular in the early slate and for good reason. He has looked like a completely different pitcher with the Angels and is showcasing why he was such a huge prospect at one point. Cahill takes on his old team but we are only looking at maybe a 4 inning start I would assume.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last 6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over their last 6 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Gonzales relies on location and changing speeds but this is a lineup that he isn’t going to be able to get away with mistakes against. He’s had 1 strong start and a few not-so-good starts so far this season. Gonsolin looked really strong in his last start but was pulled before he could qualify for the win after he reached 82 pitches in the 5th. He flashed K upside and should be in consideration as a huge favorite here.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over their last 6 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over their last 7 games.
Tampa Bay Rays (-107) @ New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Blake Snell
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Snell still isn’t completely stretched out but his K numbers are really strong and he gets an EXTREMELY watered down Yankees lineup. We have to be interested here, even though I really wish we could get him for 90-100 pitches. The Rays have hit 14 HRs over the last 7 day so Tanaka has his work cut out for himself here. He has only reached the 66 pitch total through his 3 starts.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Combined 24 for 53 over the last 7 days (Diaz and Lowe)
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over their last 5 games.
Cleveland Indians (-190) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I am all about Carrasco and Franmil Reyes in this game for the Indians. Brubaker isn’t very stretched out and he has been hit hard by RHBs so far in his brief MLB career. The Pirates have been off a lot recently as they have played just 2 games over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over their last 5 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 2 games (7 days).
Cincinnati Reds (-156) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. We know how impressive Bauer has been so far this season but have you noticed how Keller has thrown to begin his season? This game is going to have an impressive pitching performance and quite possibly two of them. Winker has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over this last week and I hope a couple of days didn’t cool him off as he just goes overlooked.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Freddy Galvis, Joey Votto
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 4 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over their last 5 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Toronto Blue Jays: Sorry to you Orioles fans but I expect some regression to hit over the next week or two as they have been playing too well. The Blue Jays are swinging it very well and that’s without Bichette in the lineup. Toronto has hit 19 HRs over their last 6 games. Yes, you read that correctly, it says 19 HRs.
- Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies are rocking an ISO of .197 over the last 6 games and have averaged just under 6 runs per game during those 6 games. This game is up to a total of 11 runs and PHI is favored as the road team, I think there’s going to be some fireworks at Fenway tonight.
- New York Mets: Mets bats exploded and won lots of people money last night and I am going to go right back to them here. It basically looks like a bullpen game for the Marlins and I don’t consider their bullpen to be an asset to the team.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
I wanted to try and avoid the chalk picks in this spot as much as possible but at this point, I just can’t ignore Juan Soto and the way he is swinging the damn bat right now. He gets a bullpen game from the Braves and is expected to face 2 RHPs to start out the game (probably 3 of his ABs). He now has 7 HRs over his last 10 games and has 16+ DK points in 8 of those 10 games. Hot streaks are real, sorry to break it to you!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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