Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Max Scherzer – So here is the debate that I will be having today: Is it time to now start using SPs against BAL for GPP purposes as others might now start avoiding them with how BAL bats have been performing? I can’t wait to see what Scherzer’s projected ownership is. I like this spot for him more than I liked the Corbin spot on Saturday as BAL has been very, very good against LHPs so far in 2020.
- Lance McCullers Jr. – McCullers’s chalk starts seem to end badly for us. I am not sure what kind of ownership we are looking at just yet but I have to assume it’s going to be pretty high. He was extremely bad two starts ago against a struggling (at the time) Arizona offense. He looked dominant in his last start against a surprising SF offense. I have been on the HOU SPs in this entire series and I am not going to stop now.
- Elieser Hernandez – This kid has an arm that intrigues me, especially when he gets an upper-tier type team who is struggling and dealing with injuries. He’s racked up 10 Ks in 9.2 innings while allowing just 6 hits. He made 2 starts and threw 11 innings against ATL in 2019 and struck out 14 while allowing just 5 hits and one run (a solo HR).
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays (-130) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Yonny Chirinos
Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10.5 runs. Chirinos is expected to be activated from the IL to make this start. With the total set at what it is, we have to consider the bats here. Normally I have an interest in Chirinos because of how nasty he is but the TOR offense is enough to worry me on top of the fact he is returning from an arm injury.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 over their last 8 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: 16 HRs over their last 5 games
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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Mazza
Yankees – J.A. Happ
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas info. This game should offer some runs for us on Sunday Night. I would expect people to focus on getting all the bats in that they can for the Single Game/Showdown contests.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over their last 7 games.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu (possibly hurt)
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .238 over their last 5 games.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Rick Porcello
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Mets were just shut down by Nola and now they face their former teammate. Wheeler has a solid upside but this game has a higher projected total than Saturday’s game had. Porcello started the season off rough but has been really strong in his last two starts (both against WAS). I still think he’s closer to the pitcher from his 2nd start than he is to the pitcher from his most recent two starts.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over their last 7 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 9 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Steven Brault
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
The word is that a Reds player has tested positive.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note:
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note:
Cleveland Indians (-142) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Adam Plutko
Tigers – Michael Fulmer/Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Tigers are striking out at a 31.6% rate against RHPs so far this season. Plutko provides us with some GPP upside at an inviting price point. I am not sure what to expect out of the Fulmer/Alexander combo as Fulmer was really good a couple of years ago and now is being brought along extremely slowly. Alexander has K upside in his arm but he also can allow some runs in a hurry.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .152 over the last 5 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Just not interested in targeting Tigers bats, even against an average SP like Plutko.
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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins (-109)
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Robbie Erlin
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I would assume that Erlin throws around 60 pitches but could also be used as just a traditional opener, with 2 innings being his goal. Hernandez interests me as he dominated against ATL last season and has always flashed solid stuff, especially when he is at home.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 8 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: 12 SBs as a team over their last 5 games.
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas info yet this morning. I know there’s some weather in the forecast but they might be waiting on an indication on how many pitches or innings Means will be throwing.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: 15 HRs over their last 8 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over their last 6 games.
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-185)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Dobnak continues to impress without throwing very hard at all. He relies so much on location and movement that there are going to be some bad days here and there at some point. Singer has been decent in his debut season as he has 22 Ks in 20 innings and has allowed 4 HRs. This will be his 2nd start against MIN so I do think he struggles somewhat.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Striking out at a 28.3% rate over their last 5 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: 17 HRs over their last 9 games
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox (-145)
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Cardinals came out on Saturday, after a 2+ week layoff, and swept the doubleheader against the White Sox. Keuchel has been solid for the White Sox and should be again in this spot as the STL lineup is a little more watered down than we are used to seeing. Hudson looked rough in his first start but who knows what we get out of him today, after such an extended layoff.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: I just don’t know what to expect out of STL. Really depends on how focused they were during their time off due to the COVID outbreak.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over their last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Josh Lindblom
Cubs – Jon Lester
Rundown:
We are still waiting on Vegas info. I really like Lester as long as the wind isn’t blowing out in this game. I know Ryan Braun is my cover boy for this article but I can still really like the SP against his teammates. Lindblom has been all over the place, looking solid against PIT but allowing runs and getting hurt, being strong against the White Sox, and then allowing 3 HRs to the Twins.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Ryan Braun
GPP Note: 72 Ks over their last 8 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: 55 Ks over their last 5 games.
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies (-150)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 12 runs. We get Coors Field action yet again here. Gray let me down at home in his last start when I thought he had some upside and now I will be going back to him again here as the Rangers just aren’t driving the baseball right now. Getting to face an LHP, while at home, has to have the Rockies bats drooling.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over their last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over their last 6 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This is another spot where I am ALL about the Astros. I was all about them on Friday and Saturday. They get another LHP after facing one in the first two games. McCullers has flashed a big upside and then he has disappointed in great spots. This is another spot where he should be fairly popular.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over their last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: George Springer, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 against LHPs in 2020.
San Diego Padres (-120) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Garrett Richards
Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9 runs. I was shocked to see a total of just 9 here as Ray has been really bad to begin this season and the Diamondbacks offense has been scoring runs recently. Richards did shut down ARI in his first start for SD this season as he allowed just 1 hit in 5 innings while striking out 6 but I think that ARI offense was different than the one he is about to face today.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over their last 7 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over their last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Angels – Julio Teheran
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This just screams Dodgers LHBs as Teheran just doesn’t scare me at all. The game has moved to a total of 10 runs as of 7 A.M. Teheran has traditionally had issues with LHBs away from ATL and now seems to be struggling with both sides of the plate and Mookie Betts is absolutely rolling at the plate. I am very intrigued by Dustin May and his powerful sinker. He is throwing the ball extremely hard and looks to be making a big leap in his first “full” season at the MLB level.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: 39 HRs over the first 22 games of the season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over their last 6 games.
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas info. I assume we are waiting on news in regards to who starts for OAK as Montas was scratched on Friday. The A’s bats are performing, especially late in games right now. I love seeing offenses come alive against the hard-throwing arms of bullpens as it really means they are locked in at the plate.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .133 over their last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Houston Astros: The Astros get to face yet another LHP. I was on them Friday against Kikuchi, who was scratched and replaced by another LHP. I was on them yet again on Saturday against Margeivicius and I am on them again today against Sheffield. Was interesting to see Altuve dropped to the 7th spot in the lineup as I think he should be there for a few games until he can get his buz, I mean bat working.
- Philadelphia Phillies: I just don’t think Porcello is any good at this point. He has been solid against WAS over his last 2 starts but he was knocked around a bit by ATL in his first 2 starts. Harper has a pretty rough history against Porcello but that changes today.
- Cleveland Indians: I hate dealing with openers and bullpen games but I do think the DET plans are pretty clear-cut as long as CLE does a little bit of damage early. If they struggle early then I could see Fulmer approaching 4 innings and then that might move Alexander out of the picture. The Indians have just 4 games with 7+ runs out of the 21 games played so far but I just feel like the offense is on the verge of clicking.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
A little off the wall selection for our Sunday Dinger special. Braun looked comfortable at the plate on Saturday, stinging a couple of balls to the wall. He is 9 for 27 with 4 doubles and 5 SBs against Lester in his career. I think we get to see daytime Ryan Braun hit an HR at Wrigley Field. I reserve the right to change this pick should we wake up in the morning and the wind is blowing straight in.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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