Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Patrick Corbin – This isn’t a slam dunk spot for Corbin but I love the GPP upside. The Orioles are doing a lot of damage at the plate right now as one of the hotter teams in baseball. Normally I would only put the 3 pitchers here that I want all kinds of shares of but I wanted to point out Corbin. He has the name, he has the K ability and people are going to blindly use him against his opponent. I do want shares, he is a pretty sizeable favorite but I don’t think we can go here in cash.
- German Marquez – Texas came into Coors without much power and somehow their team ISO went down after the first game of this series last night (ISO over the last 7 days). We saw both SPs pitch particularly well in last night’s game and Marquez has the ability to do the same. People automatically eliminate SP options in Coors so he quickly drops in ownership because of that.
- Cristian Javier – Javier and HOU are the largest favorites on the slate (as of early this morning). Javier is coming off of a rough start against a hot OAK squad so he should be in line to bounce back. He is very fairly priced on DK and will end up being somebody that a lot of people plug in as their SP2.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays (-142) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with an eye-popping total of 11 runs. Looks like this park in Buffalo is going to be a hitter’s park at this point and both of these teams have put up some runs recently. That takes both pitchers out of the equation for me. I generally love stacking the Blue Jays on every slate, just because the top half of the lineup is so dangerous.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 days.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Bichette is 11 for 22 with 5 extra-base hits and 3 SBs over his last 5 games.
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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-162)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Yankees – James Paxton
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Paxton is coming off of an impressive 11 K performance but ran into trouble late. He hasn’t been completely sharp yet this season and the Red Sox have a few guys that have hit him well. They are a pretty solid team against LHPs but they can be prone to Ks.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .138 over the last 7 days
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last 7 days.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-168)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Steven Matz
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. We know that Matz has struggled on the road in his career and the Phillies are hitting HRs right now so the match-up is really dangerous for him. On the other side, Nola has generally pitched a lot better when at home. The Mets hitters are starting to heat up a bit as Dominic Smith has really turned it on.
NYM 5-star plays: Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 7 days.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: 13 HRs over their last 8 games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Steven Brault
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
The word is that a Reds player has tested positive.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note:
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note:
Cleveland Indians (-180) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. The total has dropped already to 7.5 runs. I love this pitching match-up as Turnbull is underrated and we know what kind of a start to the season that Bieber has had. I think some people are going to skip Bieber in the earlier contests because they were let down a bit by Civale last night. If you skip over Bieber because of that, you need to fix your research method!
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team is 28 for 74 with an OPS of .933 against Turnbull
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No reason to mess with Bieber unless you are MME’ing.
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Atlanta Braves (-190) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Marlins – Daniel Castano
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Seeing the Braves as such large favorites caught me off-guard after Miami beat them last night and improved their record to 9-4. I know the Marlins just aren’t that good and they should come back to earth but hot teams stay hot for a period of time. Fried is certainly in play as long as he avoids the hot-hitting top part of the lineup.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: 10 HRs over their last 7 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Aguilar and Anderson are a combined 18 for 55 with 19 RBI over the last 7 games.
Washington Nationals (-180) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Orioles are playing really strong baseball and the Nationals have been playing better with Soto’s return. I normally like to use BAL bats against LHPs but this LHP is rather difficult. He does give up HRs so there is a chance that BAL hits a couple of them but his K upside is really intriguing.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: 13 HRs over their last 7 games.
BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over their last 6 games.
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins – GAME 1
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Ian Kennedy/Jakob Junis
Twins – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Odorizzi is making his 2nd start of the season and his 2nd one against KC. He managed to complete just 3 innings in the first start, throwing 71 pitches. Junis has made just 2 starts so far this season, with both being less than 5 innings. He did make a start against MIN and gave up 2 solo HRs in that game.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 17 for 44 with 6 HRs against Odorizzi.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: 15 HRs over their last 7 games
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins – GAME 2
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas info.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 22 for 62 with 9 extra-base hits against Berrios.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: 15 HRs over their last 7 games
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox (-170) – GAME 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7 runs. This game is going to close with the lowest total on the slate. I just don’t know what to expect out of STL here as they have been off for a while now with the COVID issues. Both SPs are very intriguing for me at this point, especially Giolito. I am very interested in seeing what kind of a lineup STL puts out there.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Really an unknown at this point with so much time off plus players in their everyday lineup testing positive.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over their last 5 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox – GAME 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals –
White Sox –
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas AND SP info. I will do my best to update this article once we get more info on Game 2.
STL 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
CWS 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
Milwaukee Brewers (-124) @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Cubs – Colin Rea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I like Houser’s ability and think he’s a solid option in this game but the Cubs showed last night that they can struggle early against an SP and then make him work at any point. Woodruff hit a wall in the 5th inning and next thing we knew, he was out of the game after his pitch count took a huge jump. Rea doesn’t do it for me even though he’s facing a Brewers squad that is striking out at roughly a 30% rate on the season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: 67 Ks over their last 7 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 7 days.
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies (-161)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 11.5 runs. I am all about Marquez for GPPs here. The Rangers Team ISO actually went down after yesterday’s game in Coors. They just lack power upside overall. I understand they have a few guys that have power (Gallo, Odor, Dietrich) but they just aren’t showing it this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .094 over their last 6 games
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 at home so far this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-204)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Nick Margevicius
Astros – Christian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. This is another spot where I am ALL about the Astros. I was all about them on Friday and am going to be again today. They get another LHP after facing one last night (but not the original listed starter). Javier is a young arm with a ton of upside. He hasn’t been consistent yet this season but he hasn’t been terrible either.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over their last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: George Springer, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 against LHPs in 2020.
San Diego Padres (-122) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Cal Quantrill
Diamondbacks – Alex Young
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs. I think this game is going to be under-owned and I think that is going to be a mistake. I am very intrigued by how both teams are swinging the bats and want to get some game stacks of this one. I know runs aren’t what they once were in ARI but there’s some offense to be had against these SPs.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: 13 HRs over their last 7 games.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over their last 6 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-148) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Dodgers can hit and that makes things really tough for a guy like Heaney. I worry about him trying to be too perfect and having some control issues but he’s also good enough to surprise and shut down this offense. We might see a run from the Dodgers where somebody in this lineup hits multiple HRs each night.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: 38 HRs in their first 21 games.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 over the last 7 days.
Oakland Athletics (-160) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I think this game plays over that total and that should surprise people given the size of this park. Manaea hasn’t been sharp at all and the Giants are doing some damage to LHPs this season (they did to Luzardo last night too). Oakland’s bats are definitely in play as Gausman can struggle. With that said, Gausman has looked really solid so far this season so there is some cause for concern.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 over their last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over their last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Houston Astros: Margevicius just isn’t very good, flat out. He’s given up 2 HRs in 8.1 innings this season but hasn’t been stretched out so I assume as he tries to go 5 innings, his stuff will flatten out and we are looking at an HR prone pitcher, against a very good offense.
- Oakland Athletics: I just am going to continue to pick on Gausman and the SF pitching staff because I just don’t think they are very good overall. The A’s have 12 HRs and a team ISO of .211 over their last 7 games.
- Colorado Rockies: The Rockies should finish with the highest IRT on the slate and Gibson should have a tough time handling a lineup that is swinging it so well at home overall. I know they struggled a bit last night but Gibson is NOT Lance Lynn.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
The Dinger of the Day came through yesterday so now is the time to go back to a gut feeling. Gleyber had been struggling for much of the season but is coming off of a 4-hit game and has 8 hits and 6 walks over his last 6 games. He looks to be getting more and more comfortable this season and it’s only a matter of time before he hits 4 HRs over a 5-day stretch.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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