Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Mike Minor – Minor gets to face a Giants squad with a weak lineup and who’s best hitters are LH. There’s a good chance that the Giants end up with the lowest implied run total or at least the second-lowest on the slate. He’s the 5th highest priced SP on DK and the 6th highest priced on FD. I just wish the Rangers offense was clicking a little bit more to give me a stronger feeling about the Win points coming.
- Luis Castillo – Castillo faced DET in his first start of the season and he racked up 11 strikeouts in 6 innings. He allowed just 1 run on 6 hits but it’s the Ks that excites me here. The Tigers lineup has a lot of strikeouts in it and the ballpark is very inviting for SPs. He struck out 88 batters in 65 road innings in 2019.
- Jordan Montgomery – I think really highly of this kid and this is an interesting spot as a lot of the BOS lineup is struggling at this point. He does have to navigate guys like Martinez, Bogaerts, and Vazquez but he has upside. I think he goes a bit overlooked on the slate. We just have to find out how many pitches he is expected to throw.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
St Louis Cardinals (-140) @ Milwaukee Brewers – PPD DUE TO POSITIVE TEST
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Rundown:
Anderson is making his season debut here while Flaherty gets to take on a team that is struggling at the plate. Not often we see the Brewers a home underdog but Flaherty is a dominant SP. Flaherty struck out 35 Brewers in 25 innings last season but he did manage to also allow 8 HRs against them. Anderson just doesn’t scare me much at this point in his career and hard contact could be an issue here.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Goldschmidt has dominated Brett Anderson in his career
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Braun has really nice BvP against Flaherty but a lot of the MIL lineup is struggling to begin the season.
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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-211)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Ryan Weber
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 11 and I can see it moving to 11.5 by the time first pitch rolls around. The Yankees are just an extremely dangerous team and Weber just struggles to get outs consistently. Montgomery is an intriguing SP and I think he has upside in this spot but some of the BOS lineup is very dangerous against LHPs.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Christian Vazquez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: The Red Sox have been disappointing people all week long. I love what some of the bats do against LHPs but I also think this is a tougher match-up for them. Vazquez is destroying the baseball right now.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
GPP Note: All the power, all the time. Gleyber left Thursday Night’s game after being HBP so we have to watch his status.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-130)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Rick Porcello
Braves – Sean Newcomb
Rundown:
Porcello got absolutely blasted in his Mets debut last week. This is a tough spot for him as ATL can get hot at home and I love the way a couple of the bats are swinging it (just need Acuna to wake up). Newcomb is all over the place as he has the stuff but he gets himself into trouble and the Mets lineup can take advantage of that. This game has opened with a total set at 10.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: In 74 PAs against Newcomb, the Mets roster has 21 Ks
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: This feels like a spot where the Braves offense explodes for like a 10 spot.
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Cleveland Indians () @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Mike Clevinger
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Rundown:
Bieber just carved up the Twins lineup and now Clevinger gets his turn. The Twins have a dangerous lineup but there is K upside for Clevinger. It’s one of those very high-risk, high-reward type spots. The Twins roster has 52 Ks in 187 PAs against Clevinger. The Twins haven’t listed an SP yet so we have no line or total as of Thursday night. I will update as soon as it gets posted. **UPDATE** Minnesota has chosen Dobnak as the starter for this game.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: A lot will depend on who the Twins run out to the mound. The top of the CLE order is always interesting.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: The match-up sucks but Cruz is always dangerous and Arraez has really strong BvP in his corner.
Cincinnati Reds (-147) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Rundown:
The Tigers have to be pissed that the Reds game was rained out on Thursday. They now have to deal with Luis Castillo and his nasty stuff. Detroit’s roster has 13 Ks in 35 PAs against Castillo in their careers. Turnbull is an interesting guy as he always seems to be solid and while the Reds are dangerous, this park is much larger than their home park. The game total is just at 9 runs so it should be a closer game than we might generally think.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Castillo is probably the top SP play on the slate
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Tigers bats are in a tough spot but Turnbull could be a sneaky GPP option as an SP2 on DK.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Blake Snell
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
Cobb was really strong in his first start, which is extremely surprising. Snell was babied in his first start of the season and I think that the line hasn’t been posted yet tonight because of that issue. We just don’t know yet what we are going to get out of Snell. A short start from Snell would definitely take me off of him but it might keep me off of the Orioles bats. If they are going to try to extend him, I might like a couple of BAL bats a bit.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: If the Cobb that pitched in his first start shows up, then I want none of TB but if the real Cobb shows up, then bring me all the TB stacks.
BALT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: Just some dart plays against Snell but a few BAL bats are solid against LHPs.
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Chicago White Sox (-170) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This lines up for a strong spot for the White Sox offense. Taking on a young LHP as a big road favorite. Keuchel has struggled with Merrifield but has had a ton of success against the rest of the Royals. The game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This White Sox offense has to bust out at some point as it’s a pretty strong lineup with Robert hitting in the 7 spot.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Love this CWS lineup against LHPs. They could end up with an implied run total around 6 by the time the game starts.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: It’s been Whit Merrifield BvP week and he’s been performing. Always a guy we have to get shares of.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Undecided
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
Waiting on the Dodgers to name an official starter. I am seeing rumors that it will be Tony Gonsolin. I am a big fan of Zac Gallen and was really shocked that the Marlins dealt him away. This spot isn’t ideal for him as this Dodgers lineup is just extremely dangerous from top to bottom. I am very interested to see what the line and total are set at.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner
GPP Note: STACK AWAY!!!
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Just depends on who the SP is for the Dodgers but the D’Backs have been really bad to begin this season.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies (-110)
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
The first game in Coors of the season so we have to think of how we want to attack. Generally, teams struggle the first game at Coors and I can see that with both of these SPs going. Richards has strong stuff and Gray was actually better at home than on the road in 2019. The game did open with a run total of 11.5 so Vegas is expecting a few runs to be scored here.
SD 5-star plays: Wil Myers
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: The top of this SD lineup is extremely dangerous and they are swinging it pretty well right now.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, David Dahl
GPP Note: It’s Coors and the Rockies have been FAR better when at home. The offense hasn’t busted out by home cooking cures all!
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
History says that the Cubs are going to wax Williams and the Pirates while Darvish should walk through this lineup. I think that probably is what happens but it really depends which Darvish shows up here. The Pirates roster is just 6 for 52 against Darvish in their careers. There is no line or total posted yet so we could be dealing with some wind issues at Wrigley. Stay tuned to see what that can mean for our stacks or pitching options!
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: I really don’t want much from PIT unless we get gale force winds blowing out.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: The guys above have extremely strong BvP against Williams. They are a combined 29 for 79 with 6 HRs.
Texas Rangers (-140) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Mike Minor
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
We are going to get this undecided SP from the Giants all season long and it’s going to annoy me. Minor is in an excellent spot in a pitcher’s park, against an overly weak offense. I am a bit shocked to see him open as just a -140 favorite. The issue here is that the Rangers offense has been pretty bad to begin the season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Just interested in GPP one-offs from TEX
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No interest in attacking Mike Minor.
Oakland Athletics (-179) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Mariners – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
Manaea is in a GREAT spot here as a big road favorite, in a pitcher’s park. Walker struggled in his first start in a couple of seasons and could struggle here. I don’t expect him to go very deep in this start so the A’s bats should get to face a pretty below-average bullpen for much of the game. The game has opened with a run total of just 8.5 runs.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: The OAK bats aren’t exactly tearing it up but this could be sneaky, get right spot for them.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore
GPP Note: Lewis and Moore have been getting it done for SEA but they don’t have much in their lineup to scare Manaea.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Angels – Undecided
Rundown:
The Angels haven’t decided on an SP yet so we are missing a total and line for this game. McCullers looked really strong in his first start and now gets the Angels with Trout on the paternity list with the expected arrival of his child this weekend. It will be interesting to see how the Angels treat the Astros in their first match-up after all of the offseason cheating discussion.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, George Springer
GPP Note: If you are an MME guy, you should always have HOU stacked. If HBPs start, that’s free points plus guys hitting with runners on base.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Upton has very solid BvP and Rendon is just dangerous every night he is on the field.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- New York Yankees: Weber just isn’t a very good SP so the Yankees and their power should be extremely popular as they were against BALT. They get to play at home, with that short porch in RF. Give me all the power. We have to see what the word about Torres is as that could weaken the lineup just slightly.
- Chicago White Sox: This White Sox lineup should do a ton of damage against LHPs this season as the lineup is pretty deep, down to the 7th spot with Luis Robert looking like he belongs.
- Atlanta Braves: I think this is the spot for the Braves to bust out big time and maybe we get Acuna to actually show up and make this lineup become extremely dangerous this weekend. Porcello just doesn’t get guys out consistently and is going to give up a ton of contact. Freddie Freeman might end up my top play on the slate.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox
Moncada is 28 for 83 over the last two seasons at Kaufman Stadium. I am going somewhat off the board here with this pick but I just think he lines up great, hitting in the 2-spot with all the names after him, taking on a young LHP. Tim Anderson is in a similarly good spot and has had success at Kaufman as well. I think either guy makes a ton of sense and I will be stacking the White Sox multiple ways.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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