Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Dinelson Lamet – Lamet struck out 8 in 5 innings against ARI to begin the season and now he faces an even weaker offense in the Giants. Lamet had a K rate of 33.5% in 2019 so the stuff is wicked as he is fully recovered from Tommy-John surgery.
- Dylan Bundy – Bundy was absolutely dominant in his LAA debut and now faces a much weaker offense as SEA is far worse than OAK is. Bundy was always a very hyped prospect who just never was able to put it ALL together for Baltimore. He gets to pitch in a few bigger parks in the AL West than what he had to deal with in the AL East.
- Brady Singer – Big pitching prospect for KC looked like he belonged in the majors with his debut against CLE. Gets a much weaker opponent (notice all 3 SPs in this list are getting better match-ups then they had last week). The DET offense is pretty bad overall and even a couple of the bigger names are struggling to begin the season.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays (-143, Game is actually in DC)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
So here is an interesting situation. The game is being played at Nationals Park but Toronto is the home team. I don’t know that it matters all that much as Scherzer just dominated as the road SP, while on his home mound. Fedde sticks in the rotation as Strasburg is being skipped yet again due to a nerve issue in his elbow. We have to pay attention to the status of Bo Bichette as the Blue Jays lineup loses a lot without him in the leadoff spot.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kurt Suzuki, Trea Turner
GPP Note: I just don’t love the WAS lineup and facing an LHP weakens them even more. Suzuki is really the only one who had a strong ISO against LHPs in 2019. Turner is always in play thanks to his power/speed upside.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: If Bichette is back, that can change the dynamic of this lineup. As it sits right now, I just don’t love the Blue Jays but they do have a lot of pop in the top half of their lineup so they are always a GPP option.
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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-122)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This is an interesting spot. The game has a total of 9 runs on Wednesday night and both SPs are strong options for GPPs, especially Castillo. The interesting part for me is the success some hitters have had in this game against the opposing SP. Wednesday night’s game saw 19 runs scored so we know this ballpark is going to bring the offense.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are 14 for 35 with 10 extra-base hits against Castillo in their careers.
CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto
GPP Note: We know Darvish can blow up at any point. He struggled in his first start of the season and this CIN team is going to score runs nightly with that lineup. Suarez has struggled to start the season so once he heats up, the offense gets even tougher.
New York Yankees (-220) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – J.A. Happ
Orioles – John Means
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. We know the Yankees set an MLB record with 61 HRs hit off of the Orioles pitching staff in 2019 and they started this season out with 3 more HRs against them on Wednesday night. Members here at the Army know my stance on Orioles against LHPs. I know the Baltimore team just isn’t very good, but they are going to be competitive when they face LHPs. Means struggled against the Yankees in 2019 but he was sensational at home. We are always stacking Yankees bats but this isn’t a 100%, slam dunk spot for them.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: After hitting 61 HRs against BALT pitching in 2019, the Yankees hit 3 more on Wednesday night and now face an SP that they scored 11 runs against in 13 innings last season.
BALT 5-star plays: Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: I am one of the few that are high on the Orioles bats when they face LHPs.
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Cleveland Indians (-107) @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This spot intrigues me. I think Bieber carries ownership based on his first start dominance while Berrios struggled against the White Sox. Berrios has been extremely strong against CLE in his career. He is 3-0 with 43 Ks in 41 innings against CLE over the last 2 seasons with an average against him under .190. I am a Twins fan so it’s tough to get me off of them as a stack but this could be the spot. Bieber has some electric stuff but with that said, I will certainly stack them at least once via fandom.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Berrios is a tough match-up but CLE has some pop. I don’t think I am interested in full stacks but a couple of mini-stacks should be pretty low owned.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: The Twins roster 41 for 128 (.320 avg) with 16 RBI against Bieber in their careers.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Mets – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game should garner some attention with the LHPs on the mound. Perez just is a gas can in general and Matz has to navigate a handful of bats that have a strong history against LHPs. As of Wednesday night, the game sits with a total of 9.5 runs. Boston has been disappointing people for the last handful of days so maybe we get them at lower GPP ownership and that intrigues me. The Mets should be a popular team against Perez with Alonso being very chalky.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Christian Vazquez, Jose Peraza
GPP Note: Pillar is the only one with ABs against Matz but the others have been really strong against LHPs.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Yoenis Cespedes
GPP Note: I can see the Mets being a chalky, top 3 stack on this slate
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves (-142)
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
The pitching in this game is going to be tough to figure out. The issue is the pitch counts. Both pitchers were strong in their first starts but Fried threw just 67 pitches and Yarbrough bested him with 69 pitches. I think both SPs are in play for GPP purposes as the total sits at just 8.5 Wednesday night. We just saw Freeman break out a bit but I think that he just fit against Morton’s pitch profile.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Jose Martinez, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: The three guys above had ISOs of .339, .271, and .272 against LHPs in 2019.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: The overall ATL lineup has been struggling and striking out quite a bit. Swanson had been the hottest hitter until the game tonight (he was solid but not as strong as Freeman).
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-110)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Tigers – Ivan Nova
Rundown:
The Royals offense should be a popular stack yet again as they get to take on a pretty weak pitcher overall and they have some strong history against him. Singer is an interesting option as he is a top prospect and he threw a pretty strong game against the Indians in his first start. He threw 80 pitches and picked up 7 Ks. I think as the day goes on tomorrow, we will see the Royals become the favorite in this game.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: The KC roster has hit 30 for 90 against Nova with 5 HRs and 16 RBI
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JaCoby Jones, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Overall, the Tigers lineup has been pretty bad to start the season but they have a couple of guys doing all the damage.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-152) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Ross Stripling
Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9 which is a bit low if you consider how dangerous this LAD offense is. Ray struggles with control but he is a big K guy so there is upside if he can handle the RHBs. Stripling threw a gem in his first start (the only LAD SP to do what we expected against the Giants). The Diamondbacks offense just hasn’t gotten started yet this season so we can go to Stripling again in this match-up.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Ray has dominated the LHBs of the Dodgers in his career but he has struggled with the RHBs. He walks a lot of guys so the Dodgers should get some baserunners and have some opportunities for a big inning at some point.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketal Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 21 for 53 against Stripling
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-205)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
Bundy and the Angels are really strong favorites and the game has opened with a total of 9 runs. The bullpens for both teams are getting smashed in the Wednesday night game (in the 8th inning as I type this out). Bundy looked very impressive in his LAA debut last week and now gets a pretty weak offense. Gonzales had a decent 2019 but he’s going to battle against some strong offenses all season long and the addition of Anthony Rendon makes the LAA lineup a lot more dangerous against LHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: I am not a fan of SEA here but Seager and Lewis have done some damage so far this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Justin Upton
GPP Note: First look leaves me wanting a lot of LAA stacks in this game. Watching them swing tonight, I really like the at-bats they are taking.
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San Diego Padres (-168) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game doesn’t have a line or total yet as we wait for what the Giants are going to do on the mound. The issue is I think this becomes a daily thing as Gabe Kapler thinks he’s being sly when all he’s doing is just being a dick. Lamet is going to end up one of my favorite SPs as I just love his K upside. I don’t see any reason to play any of the pitchers that the Giants could run out in this game. **Update** The Giants have named Kevin Gausman as the primary/starting pitcher and we see that SD is a -168 favorite in a pitcher’s park.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Going with the top 4 of the lineup until we know more about the SF pitching plans.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Don’t see a reason to be on the Giants bats unless I absolutely have to. Yas just hit 2 HRs Wednesday night, with the second one being a walk-off.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- New York Yankees: I will point it out again, the Yankees hit 61 HRs against the Orioles last season (over 3 per game). They hit 3 in the first game against them in the 2020 season. Means struggled against the Yankees in 2019 even though he was super strong at home. We are stacking the Yankees basically every day as it is as we aim to take advantage of all their 3+ HR games as a team.
- Los Angeles Angels: I am enamored with this LAA team now that they have Rendon in the middle. He protects Trout a TON more than guys like Ohtani and Upton do. Fletcher is a scrappy leadoff who doesn’t have power at all but he just gets on base. Trout hitting with a guy on base and protection behind him? Yes, please!
- Kansas City Royals: Nova has been around a while but the Royals have some very strong BvP against him and they have been pretty popular the last few days as far as stacking goes. Merrifield should be highly owned as he just gets things done and when you add in the price point of the rest of the guys, you get a stack with the upside that can be used to pair with the expensive Yankees.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Renato Nunez, Baltimore Orioles
This is just a BvP play at this point. His numbers are just through the roof against Happ in his career. Nunez has faced Happ 21 times. He has 11 hits in 19 ABs to go with 4 HRs and a 2B. I am a believer in BvP and this is one of those lines that just make sense to target. I could have used guys like JD Martinez, Pete Alonso, or Mike Trout as they all are in GREAT spots with strong BvP or really strong ISO match-ups.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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