Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

• Gerrit Cole – It’s tough not to like Cole here against the Baltimore Orioles. Cole led the league in strikeouts last season and the Orioles are no stranger in that department either. I don’t see an implied run total for the Orioles yet, but I can’t imagine it’s more than 3.5 runs at most. Cole went 5 innings on 75 pitches in his first start against the Nationals. I would expect both of those numbers to get expanded here and get him up near 90 pitches, hopefully enough to get you at least 6 solid innings in a great matchup. He’s number one on the Carnage Report as well, it’ going to be hard to ignore Cole tonight

• Chris Paddack – This is another spot where the matchup combined with Paddack’s talent should be the formula for glory. Paddack finished last season with a very respectable 26.9% strikeout rate. In his first game against the Diamondbacks, he went 6 innings on 81 pitches so I would expect he’s without a limit here against the Giants. The Giants have a 3.5 implies run total here and in a pitchers ballpark against a weak lineup, it’s hard not to like Paddack.
• Andrew Heaney – I normally go a little cheaper than this on my third and final pitcher in this section, but for cash games, I’m not sure how confident I would be in guys like Danny Duffy and Joe Musgrove not getting blown to shreds. Heaney is at least a good pitcher and has a good matchup with the Mariners. The Mariners were second in the league in strikeouts last season and as we know, strikeouts are king in MLB DFS. They have an implied run total of just 3.7 runs in a big Angels ballpark. Heaney went 4.2 innings in his first start on 67 pitches, going for six strikeouts and giving up just one run. This is a great spot for him and someone I like a good deal here.

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Early Games:

Colorado Rockies (+130) @ Oakland Athletics (-142)

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – German Marquez (DK – $8.3k; FD – $8.5k)

Athletics – Frankie Montas (DK – $7.4k; FD – $7.7k)

Rundown:

This is an interesting pitching matchup, I like both of these guys as MLB pitchers and think they have a ton of upside. It’s a tough matchup for Marquez, but anytime he’s away from Coors Field I’ll have interest in him. He went 5.2 innings with 6 strikeouts in his first game against the Rangers so he shouldn’t have much of a pitch limit here, he makes sense for GPPs. Frankie Montas is a sneaky good pitcher, he went 4.0 innings against the Angels last time out but struggled with command. The Rockies have a rough lineup once you get passed the big boppers and they will strikeout; a case can be made for Montas here. I don’t know that I want to stack either of these offenses, I respect both of these pitchers enough to stay away from that side of things but one-offs are certainly in play.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me, but they have some nice power.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

4-star plays: Khris Davis, Marcus Semien

GPP Note: One-offs and mini-stacks here for me, Marquez normally doesn’t get blown up away from Coors Field.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) @ Texas Rangers (-125)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner (DK – $6.6k; FD – $8.6k)

Rangers – Lance Lynn (DK – $9.4k; FD – $8.9k)

Rundown:

I think we can get sneaky here with the Rangers offense, people will see the name on Madison Bumgarner and may just avoid them altogether. That said, Bumgarner’s velocity was way down the last start, and on a hot Texas day, that won’t end well for him here. With just a 4.3 implied run total for the Rangers, they may fly under the radar, but I like them a good amount as a stack here. Lance Lynn is a fine pitching option on one of the early slates, the Diamondbacks offense doesn’t exactly scare me and Lynn is more than a decent pitcher.

ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte

4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker

GPP Note: I’ll stick with one-offs from this team, Lynn can be tough.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Danny Santana

4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Todd Frazier, Robinson Chirinos

GPP Note: I think we can catch the field off guard and stack up the Rangers here with success, keep an eye on their projected ownership. If it gets too high I’ll slide off, but if it is where I think it’ll be I like this spot.

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Toronto Blue Jays (-159) @ Washington Nationals (+146)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Nate Pearson

Nationals – Max Scherzer

Rundown:

Scherzer is an elite option as usual here, he may have a rough inning or two but he’ll make up for it in strikeouts before you can blink, don’t overthink it. Nate Pearson, on the other hand, not so much. This Nats lineup is still scary even without Juan Soto in it. With an implied run total of 4.8 runs, they’re a solid stack on a short slate. Pearson is an upcoming prospect for the Jays and sounds like he pitched well in the “preseason”, we may play him at some point this season, but I don’t think this is the spot.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero

GPP Note: One-offs against Scherzer is viable, but anything more than that won’t be in my process.

WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Eric Thames

4-star plays: Howie Kendrick

GPP Note: The Nats have an implied run total of 4.8 runs here and make sense as a stack even with Soto out of the lineup.

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Chicago White Sox (-112) @ Cleveland Indians (+103)

Starting Pitchers:

White Sox – Lucas Giolito

Indians – Zach Plesac

Rundown:

Giolito got beat up in his first start, giving up seven runs in 3.2 innings to the Twins. I’ll give him a pass on the first start giving it was against the Twins and the mashers they bring to the plate. On a short slate, I would prefer going with Scherzer but Giolito proved last season that he has elite-level talent. Plesac is going to be a no from me here, I like the White Sox offense quite a bit (along with a lot of people). They have an implied run total of 4.6 runs in this one and I just think they get to him early and often here making for a good stack.

CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion

4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson

GPP Note: I love the White Sox here, stack ’em up against Plesac on the road.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: Giolito is a good pitcher even if he hasn’t shown it this season, I’ll stick with mini-stacks from the Indians.

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Chicago Cubs (-105) @ Cincinnati Reds (-103)

Starting Pitchers:

Cubs – Kyle Hendricks

Reds – Sonny Gray

Rundown:

Another game that isn’t on the main slate, but luckily this is the last one. Both of these pitchers were lights out in their first outings, particularly Kyle Hendricks who threw a complete-game shutout against the Brewers. I don’t think he does that again here, but he proved he has some upside and can be tough to hit when he’s on his game. The Reds bats are just mini-stacks for me due to this reason, Hendricks will work his way out of jams and is just frustrating to stack against. Sonny Gray is the same way to an extent. The Cubs have been swinging nice bats but I think that comes to an end here against Gray.

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos

GPP Note: One-offs and mini-stacks only here for me, Hendricks was very impressive last time out.

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant

GPP Note: Same as the Reds, just one-offs and mini-stacks against Gray.

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Main Slate:

Milwaukee Brewers (-148) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+136)

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Brandon Woodruff (DK – $8.1k; FD – $8.7k)

Pirates – Joe Musgrove (DK – $5.3k; FD – $6.7k)

Rundown:

I have an interest in both pitchers here, yes, even Joe Musgrove. I wanted to write up Musgrove as my cheap option in the pitchers section but I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Derek Holland put up 15 DraftKings points last night and with the amount that this Brewers team is striking out and Yelich struggling to start the year, it’s not the worst option ever. Now, this isn’t without risk, so it’s a GPP only play, but if you need a punt to stack up some expensive bats, I like taking the chance. Woodruff, on the other hand, is cash viable in a pitchers park against a bad offense. Although I like Musgrove a small amount, a Brewers stack is still in play given the 4.7 implied run total, once Yelich gets going this lineup will as well.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun

4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez

GPP Note: Brewers make for a nice GPP stack and people may be off them after they drew some ownership last night.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Pirates, I’ll have a good deal of interest in Woodruff

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Tampa Bay Rays (+109) @ Atlanta Braves (-118)

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Mike Soroka (DK – $9.5; FD – $8.8k)

Rays – Charlie Morton (DK – $10.8k; FD – $9.4k)

Rundown:

Charlie Morton struggled to open up the season giving up six runs across four innings against the Blue Jays. I’ll take this as a wait and see spot against a good Braves offense, he may be in for another rough one. That said, I more believe in his talent and won’t be going out of my way to stack the Braves. The same goes for the Rays, Mike Soroka is a legit MLB pitcher. He went six scoreless innings against a good Mets offense on Friday, meaning I won’t get to a lot of Rays here either. If anything I’ll have some Soroka interest, but that’s about it for me on this game.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna

4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Matt Adams

GPP Note: There are some one-offs that I would have interest in, but I wouldn’t be running out to stack against Morton.

TBR 5-star plays: Ji-Man Choi

4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe

GPP Note: Soroka is legit and with Austin Meadows still out, not a stack that I’ll be getting to.

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Boston Red Sox (+165) @ New York Mets (-181)

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – Jacob DeGrom (DK – $12.0k; FD – $11.2k)

Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi  (DK – $6.8k; FD – $7.2k)

Rundown:

The Red Sox have been a team that I’ve had a lot of interest in to start the season, but that comes to a screeching halt here against DeGrom. With an implied run total of just 3.2 runs, I’ll let other people go here. DeGrom is an elite option, but I’d rather take the savings on Gerrit Cole later on. Eovaldi isn’t a guy that I’ll be getting to here, the Mets offense is one that can beat you up a bit. They have an implied run total of 4.4 runs and Eovaldi isn’t exactly a force to be had. The Mets make sense as a GPP stack in this one.

NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil

4-star plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Amed Rosario

GPP Note: Tough not to like the Mets here, the price even came down on a few of these guys.

BOS 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: It feels weird not having interest in the Red Sox for once, but DeGrom is enough to run me away.

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Dustin May (DK – $7.3k; FD – $6.1k)

Astros – Cristian Javier  (DK – $6.6k; FD – $5.5k)

Rundown:

This game will likely turn into a bullpen game on both sides. Dustin May will make his second start of the year after going 4.1 innings against the Giants in the opener, I just don’t think Dave Roberts is ready to hand him the keys and let him go a full six or seven innings. Javier is a decent young pitching prospect for the Astros but hasn’t pitched in the bigs yet, starting him against the Dodgers in his first start in DFS likely won’t make a ton of money. Both of these teams are stackable, I would prefer the Dodgers if you’re forcing me to pick one, however. I just think May is a better pitcher than Javier is.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Kike Hernandez, Joc Pederson

GPP Note: Stack ’em up again here as they move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark.

HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

GPP Note: Dustin May is by no means a finished product, so I think you can go with the Astros and feel semi-confident.

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Kansas City Royals (+127) @ Detroit Tigers (-138)

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Danny Duffy (DK – $7.1k; FD – $6.4k)

Tigers – Matthew Boyd (DK – $9.0k; FD – $8.4k)

Rundown:

Danny Duffy was the other cheap guy next to Joe Musgrove that I was thinking of as a possible punt play at SP2. He’s not a great pitcher, don’t get me wrong, but neither is the Tigers offense. That said, they do have an implied run total of 5.2 runs in this spot and haven’t been swinging terrible bats. Duffy is in the same category as Musgrove, GPP play ONLY. Matthew Boyd makes sense as an expensive SP2 or a cheap SP1 on this slate. He finished last season with a great 30.2% k rate which for sure noteworthy. The Royals are swinging some hot bats but Boyd is the perfect guy to slow them down, I like him a good deal here.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: I like Boyd quite a bit, so the Royals are a no go from me.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: CJ Cron, Miguel Cabrera, Niko Goodrum

GPP Note: I will have a small amount of Danny Duffy here, but you can definitely go to a mini-stack of the Tigers as a hedge.

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – Gerrit Cole (DK – $11.4k; FD – $11.7k)

Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski (DK – $5.8k; FD – $6.8k)

Rundown:

As mentioned earlier in my pitcher section, Gerrit Cole is my SP1 on this slate in all formats. This is an elite spot against the Orioles and one I don’t see him not crushing. Asher Wojciechowski on the other hand is not someone I’ll be getting to. I do think he has the talent to be a decent MLB pitcher, but against this Yankees offense, no thanks. That being said, the Yankees are one of the better stacks on the slate if you can afford them. This may be one of those scenarios where you can spend up on Cole and the Yankees and punt SP2 with one of Duffy or Musgrove for tournaments.

NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge

4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks

GPP Note: Great offense in a great spot in a great ballpark, they’re one of my favorite stacks on the slate.

BAL 5-star plays: NOPE

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll be all-in on Cole here.

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St. Louis Cardinals (+134) @ Minnesota Twins (-146)

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Daniel Ponce De Leon (DK – $7.5k; FD – $5.8k)

Twins – Rich Hill (DK – $7.2k; FD – $7.5k)

Rundown:

I’ll start by saying the Twins will be pretty heavy chalk today, on DraftKings at least. They are priced way down and get a matchup with Ponce De Leon who isn’t exactly someone to fear. They have an implied run total of 5.5 runs here and have been killing the ball this season. They’re one of the best lineups in baseball and a top stack tonight. The Cardinals haven’t been a team I’ve gotten to much this season and I don’t see that changing a whole lot here, they just don’t have enough upside toward the bottom of that order.

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton

GPP Note: They’re too cheap to ignore on this slate, they’re a top stack option but will be popular.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter

GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but you can certainly make a case for them given their implied run total against a questionable option in Rich Hill.

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San Diego Padres (-165) @ San Francisco Giants (+151)

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Chris Paddack (DK – $8.4k; FD – $9.7k)

Giants – Johnny Cueto (DK – $6.0k; FD – $6.9k)

Rundown:

As mentioned earlier, Paddack is one of my favorite pitching options on this slate due to his price, especially on DraftKings. The Giants are not good and well, Chris Paddack is, to make it short and sweet. Johnny Cueto won’t be an option for me tonight, I actually really like this Padres offense and think they provide some nice pop all throughout their order.

SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Tommy Pham

4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wi Myers

GPP Note: You can make a strong case for a stack or mini-stack here against Cueto, who looked shockingly decent in his first start.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I won’t stack the Giants a whole lot this season and have a ton of interest in Chris Paddack.

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Seattle Mariners (+188) @ Los Angeles Angels (-207)

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Justin Dunn (DK – $4.5k; FD – $5.5k)

Angels – Andrew Heaney (DK – $7.9k; FD – $7.1k)

Rundown:

Another pitcher that I love tonight is Andrew Heaney, he’s very cheap and gets a great matchup with the Mariners. A combo of Heaney and Paddack or Heaney and Cole will likely be popular tonight but I think that’s the right move and just get different with your bats to get some leverage on the field. As far as stacks, the Angels make sense as a mini-stack, but again I don’t like the bottom of the order enough to full-stack them.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: I like me some Andrew Heaney tonight.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: Mini-stack only for me, the top of the lineup is loaded and the bottom of the lineup could use some work.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Minnesota Twins: As I mentioned in their write-up, the Twins should be uber popular today due to their prices and matchup. There isn’t a guy in the projected order more than $4.7k on DraftKings and for a lineup with this much firepower, it’s just simply a misprice. They have an implied run total of 5.5 runs and have been smoking the ball this season. The below picture is from our Starting Lineups page, but here is what the lineup as a whole has done against righties this season, pretty damn impressive.
2. New York Yankees: The Yankees will travel to Baltimore in a change of plans due to the Marlins outbreak, but we’ll take a matchup with the Orioles any day. The Yankees have an implied run total of 5.8 runs and get a nice matchup against the Woj bomb! The only issue with the Yankees is their prices, it may be difficult to get to them and still love your pitching but you’ll get an edge on the field if they come in under-owned. This is a great spot for them.
3. San Diego Padres: I’m going to go off the board a little here and go with the Padres who come in with an implied run total of 4.6 runs in a matchup against Johnny Cueto. Yes it’s a big pitchers park and yes Cueto wasn’t terrible in his first outing but I love how this Padres team has looked. Eric Hosmer is hitting the ball in the air finally and is drastically helped him early and they are running rampant with steals. They get on base and you can almost count on them running. Cueto isn’t exactly the fastest pitcher from the wind up either, I love the idea of getting some steals combined with home run upside here… I absolutely love the Padres and they may wind up being my favorite stack of the day.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge (DK – $5.5k; FD – $4.1k)

Anthony Rendon went deep last night as my Dinger of the Day, let’s make it two in a row! I’m going to go out on a limb here (it’s a short limb lol) and go with Aaron Judge heading into Baltimore to take on the Woj Bomb. The Yankees are one of my favorite stacks on the day and Aaron Judge has a decent amount to do with it. He has a .444 wOBA and a .301 ISO against right-handed pitchers and in a small ballpark, I love his chances of going deep. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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