Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

• Walker Buehler – I normally won’t even look at using a pitcher against the Astros due to the firepower in that offense, but Buehler is just as good on the other side. Pitching isn’t exactly loaded on this slate so getting a solid, talented pitcher to anchor your lineup feels like a wise choice. The one thing to look out for here is if he is on a pitch count. There were some rumors that he would be on one, but I haven’t seen anything official. If he does have any sort of pitch count it would be hard to pay this price for him.
• Patrick Sandoval – I don’t love the mid-range on this slate, it feels like a lot of guys are a bit overpriced, so I’m going to get two cheaper guys on here. Sandoval draws a great matchup with the Seattle Mariners who were second in the league in strikeouts last season. They’ll be playing in a big pitchers park in Los Angeles giving the Mariners an implied run total of 3.8 runs. Sandoval had a 24.9% strikeout rate last season which is pretty solid for the price range and matchup. I like Sandoval as a very solid SP2 option here.
• Josh Lindblom – Lindblom will be my cheap option on this slate, at just $5.1k on DraftKings feels like a steal. He’s in a pitchers ballpark and gets a below-average Pirates lineup with an implied run total of 4.3 runs. He hasn’t pitched in the big leagues in a few years but has been destroying the Korean league and is averaging around a 20% k rate in his MLB career. For $5.1k it’s hard not to like what you get here, I like Lindblom a good deal as a cheap SP2.

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Main Slate:

Chicago White Sox (+106) @ Cleveland Indians (-115)

Starting Pitchers:

White Sox – Dylan Cease (DK – $9.4k; FD – $6.3k)

Indians – Aaron Civale (DK – $9.7k; FD – $7.8k)

Rundown:

We start the day off with a couple of young arms going at it after this one was postponed yesterday. Both SPs have flashed solid upside in their brief careers while Cease has been best on the road and Civale has been at his best when at home (both things are true in this match-up).  With that being said, I don’t like taking pitchers against these teams as the lineups are full of danger.  The White Sox has 7 HRs so far and the Indians finally put up some runs after being a chalky offense to start the year.

CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada

4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson

GPP Note: Have to pay attention to the lineup as Moncada wasn’t in the lineup on Sunday and Jimenez left the game early.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Domingo Santana

GPP Note: When the HRs start coming, they will be coming in bunches with guys like Reyes, Santana, Santana, Ramirez, and Lindor.

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Toronto Blue Jays (+124) @ Washington Nationals (-135)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Tanner Roark (DK – $8.2; FD – $7.9k)

Nationals – Austin Voth (DK – $8.0k; FD – $7.1k)

Rundown:

Voth actually put up some pretty decent numbers last season he had over a 25% strikeout rate on his way to a 3.30 ERA in 9 games. This is a young Blue Jays lineup that will strikeout but there is some talent here as well. I don’t hate getting to Voth here especially on a weak pitching slate. In fact, Voth is the highest-ranked pitcher on the Carnage Report below. Tanner Roark, on the other hand, did not pitch well for the Athletics last season. He ended the year with 2.3 HR/9 to end the season with them. It’s a good Nats lineup, so I don’t see myself getting here with Roark.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero

GPP Note: I don’t love this spot for the Jays but you can make a case in GPPs, I likely won’t get a whole lot of them here.

WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Eric Thames

4-star plays: Howie Kendrick

GPP Note: The Nats have an implied run total of 5.4 runs here and make sense as a stack even with Soto out of the lineup.

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New York Yankees (-185) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+160)

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – J.A Happ (DK – $9.2k; FD – $7.0k)

Phillies – Jake Arrieta (DK – $7.0k; FD – $7.4k)

Rundown:

We’ll need to keep a close eye on this one and the Phillies in particular. They postponed yesterday due to a COVID outbreak on the Marlins meaning the Phillies were at risk as well. If tests come back with good news this game should be good to go, but only time will tell. For now, we’ll operate under the assumption this game will play. Happ is in a tough spot here against a loaded Phillies lineup and is overpriced, so he’s a no from me. Jake Arrieta is in the same position, safe to see I’ll be on the offenses here.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez

GPP Note: With an implied run total of 5.9 runs it’s hard not to like the Yankees here.

PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorious, Andrew McCutchen

4-star plays: Scott Kingery, Bryce Harper

GPP Note: I like the Yankees side better but the Nats will be lower owned with similar upside.

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Chicago Cubs (-100) @ Cincinnati Reds (-108)

Starting Pitchers:

Cubs – Alec Mills  (DK – $7.5k; $6.3k)

Reds – Tyler Mahle (DK – $6.7k; FD – $7.2k)

Rundown:

People stacked this game last night and I would expect the same tonight, after all, they don’t call it Great American Smallpark for nothing. Both teams have at least a 5.3 implied run total here and should be able to do some damage here. Both pitchers are a no go here for me, but these offenses are solid stacking options here.

CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos

4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker

GPP Note: Mills is still a question mark in the big leagues and in this ballpark I’ll definitely have some exposure.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant

4-star plays: Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras

GPP Note: They’re a top stack on this slate and will likely be popular.

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Atlanta Braves (+117) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-127)

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Kyle Wright (DK – $6.4k; FD – $7.5k)

Rays – Yonny Chirinos (DK – $8.5k; FD – $7.4k)

Rundown:

I want to have interest in Chirinos here but this Braves lineup scares the hell out of me. I probably won’t do it in anything other than GPP but this pitching pool today isn’t anything special. Kyle Wright did not do well in the majors last season but is a guy the Braves believe in. The Rays have an implied run total of 4.8 runs in this spot and are secondary stack for me.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna

4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Matt Adams

GPP Note: The Braves are right there with the Rays as a secondary stack for me. I think Chirinos is a legit pitcher in the majors, so I’m not going crazy here.

TBR 5-star plays: Ji-Man Choi

4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe

GPP Note: It’s quite surprising how much worse this lineup looks without Austin Meadows, nonetheless, they’re a secondary stack if you want to get different.

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Milwaukee Brewers (-153) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+140)

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Josh Lindblom (DK – $5.1k; FD – $6.1k)

Pirates – Derek Holland (DK – $6.1k; FD – $6.4k)

Rundown:

As mentioned above, Josh Lindblom is a guy that I’ll have interest in as a cheap SP2 option. This Pirates team can be pesky, but they’re ultimately just not a great MLB offense especially after losing Starlin Marte. Is it bad that I want to stack the Brewers here and have interest in Derek Holland? Holland had a strikeout rate of 21.8% last season and the Brewers have proven they will strikeout this year. He’s not a cash play by any means but I think you could do worse if you’re building 150.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun

4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez

GPP Note: I like the Brewers again tonight against the lefty, implied run total of 5.3 runs even in a pitchers park.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Pirates, I’ll have a good deal of interest in Lindblom

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – TBD

Tigers – TBD

Rundown:

This game will likely turn into a bullpen game on both sides, so I really don’t have interest in either side as nobody will likely be eligible for a win or go long enough to produce enough value. These offenses went a little nuts last night as well. The Royals were one of my favorite stacks yesterday and they put up 14 runs. Their prices haven’t changed, they are simply too cheap. They’re a great value stack on this slate. The Tigers just don’t do it for me even in a good matchup, I’ll side with the Royals on this one.

KCR 5-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Maikel Franco

GPP Note: They’re too cheap in a great matchup with a horrible Tigers pitching staff. If you’re paying up at pitcher, the Royals are your team.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: CJ Cron, Miguel Cabrera, Niko Goodrum

GPP Note: I just don’t like the talent on this team, if you’re feeling wild you can mini-stack them in GPP, but I’ll go somewhere else.

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New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – David Peterson (DK – $7.0k; FD – $5.5k)

Red Sox – Matt Hall (DK – $4.9k; FD – $5.9k)

Rundown:

I would think both of these sides end up going with a bullpen game here so both of these pitchers are a no go in my book. We don’t have implied run totals for these teams yet but I would expect them to be both up near 6 when they come out. Both of these offenses have some big firepower and are great stacking options in a pretty hitter-friendly park. If I had to choose I side to stack here it would be the Red Sox due to the pricing, the Mets feel incredibly expensive.

NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil

4-star plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Amed Rosario

GPP Note: Tough not to like the Mets here, the pricing just kind of sucks on them.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Kevin Pillar, Jose Peraza

GPP Note: Guys like Chavis, Pillar, and Peraza make this team very easy to stack and won’t kill your salary. I like the Red Sox quite a bit.

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St. Louis Cardinals (+123) @ Minnesota Twins (-134)

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Carlos Martinez (DK – $8.8k; FD – $7.1k)

Twins – Homer Bailey (DK – $9.0k; FD – $8.0k)

Rundown:

Homer Bailey at this price tag isn’t exactly something I’m thrilled about. He did pitch well toward the back end of the last season but this needs to be taken with a grain of salt due to the fact that it was in a huge pitchers park in Oakland. He did have a 21.4% k rate with that said. I just don’t know that I can get myself to pay this price tag for him. Carlos Martinez finished up “summer camp” with a four-inning outing and looked good doing so. This is his first season back as a starting pitcher after closing last season. He should be good for at least four innings here and the Cardinals are one of few teams actually letting their pitchers go deep into games. That said, this Twins lineup is elite and not something I necessarily want to target.

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco

GPP Note: You can definitely make a case for a stack here simply due to the talent in this lineup, they’ll be a playable stack almost every day this season. That said, I’m pretty intrigued by what Martinez is going to bring to the table in his first start.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter

GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but you can certainly make a case for them given their implied run total against a questionable option in Homer Bailey.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (-101) @ Texas Rangers (-107)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly (DK – $10.0k; FD – $7.8k)

Rangers – Kyle Gibson (DK – $9.7k; FD – $8.2k)

Rundown:

Neither of these two pitchers grades out well in the Carnage Report, in fact, they rank quite low. Due to their prices, I don’t see myself getting a ton of exposure in cash. For GPP, you can make a case for Merrill Kelly due to the strikeout rate of the Rangers. Although I don’t really like the pitchers here I don’t exactly love either team for bats either. There are better spots on this slate where I don’t think you need to chance this one.

ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte

4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker

GPP Note: I’ll stick with one-offs from this team, my favorite, in particular, is Ketel Marte who grades out very well in the Starting Lineups page.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo

4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo

GPP Note: Same thing for the Rangers, I just don’t love this spot for either team.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (-127) @ Houston Astros (+117)

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Walker Buehler (DK – $11.8k; FD – $10.5k)

Astros – Framber Valdez (DK – $7.8k; FD – $7.5k)

Rundown:

Buehler made my top pitchers section at the beginning of the article but I will be watching him closely throughout the day. It’s a steep price to pay if he ends up being on a pitch count. Razzle posted a sheet in the coaching forums earlier today that shows how long teams have been letting their pitchers go to start the season. The Dodgers are actually in the top half of the group, their pitchers have averaged 75 pitches and 4.8 innings. If that’s what we get out of Buehler, he’s not going to be worth the price especially in this matchup, so keep a sharp eye on this situation. I won’t be attacking this Astros lineup due to the talent of Buehler, but the Dodgers have a 5.2 implied run total against a weaker Valdez on the other side. As usual, the Dodgers make for a good stack here. One guy to watch for the Astros is Michael Brantley, he’s hitting clean up and under $3k on DraftKings which is a bit unbelievable.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy

GPP Note: Stack ’em up again here as they move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark.

HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley

4-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

GPP Note: One-offs here, I’m not stacking against Buehler

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Seattle Mariners (+154) @ Los Angeles Angels (-168)

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Justus Sheffield (DK – $8.2k; FD – $7.7k)

Angels – Patrick Sandoval (DK – $6.6k; FD – $5.6k)

Rundown:

I’ll likely use this game as an observation game for Sheffield, he’s one of their better pitching prospects so I’m not sure they want to run him too deep into this game, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Sandoval made my pitcher column at the beginning of the article, I just love the strikeout potential at this very cheap price tag. If I’m stacking anyone here it’ll be the Angels but I’ll likely leave it as a mini-stack, the bottom of this lineup isn’t pretty.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: This offense just hasn’t shown me enough to think they’re worthy of a stack especially when I like the opposing pitcher.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: Mini-stack only for me, Sheffield has some promise and I don’t love the wrap-around part of this lineup.

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Colorado Rockies (+151) @ Oakland Athletics (-165)

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – Antonio Senzatela (DK – $6.6k; FD – $6.5k)

Athletics – Daniel Mengden (DK – $7.4k; FD – $6.8k)

Rundown:

I wanted to have some interest in Mengden due to the Rockies’ ability to strikeout and because of the big pitcher’s park, but the strikeout rate just isn’t here for him at sub 20% last season. Senzatela is a no go as well, this is a good Athletics lineup and Senzatela isn’t exactly an ace in the making. If I’m stacking someone here it’s the A’s and their implied run total of 5.4 runs.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me, but they have some nice power.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

4-star plays: Khris Davis, Marcus Semien

GPP Note: As usual, I like the A’s as a GPP stack, they have 7 players with an 80+ DFSA grade on tonight’s slate.

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San Diego Padres (-139) @ San Francisco Giants (+128)

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Zach Davies (DK – $8.0; FD – $5.8k)

Giants – Jeff Samardzija (DK – $6.5k; FD – $8.1)

Rundown:

Zach Davies makes a lot of sense here especially on FanDuel where he seems to be severely underpriced. His strikeout rate wasn’t huge last season but the Giants did have a 24.6% k rate against righties last year. His price is too high on DraftKings but against the Giants, it’s tough not to like on FanDuel. Samardzija is a fine option, especially on DraftKings where you’ll get him at a discount. You can make a GPP argument for a Padres stack here, but they won’t be a top stack for me.

SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Tommy Pham

4-star plays: Manny Machado

GPP Note: I don’t hate a stack here but would feel more comfortable with a mini-stack

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I won’t stack the Giants a whole lot this season.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Oakland Athletics: The Athletics are one of my favorite stacks of the day and are the top stack according to the Research Station below. They get a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela who had a strikeout rate of just 14% last season and against a team that can be strikeout prone, that is a good number. The A’s have an implied run total of 5.4 runs here and are stackable from top to bottom due to the firepower in this lineup, go get some A’s bats tonight!
2. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs were popular yesterday and will likely be again tonight after a big night last night. They get a matchup with Tyler Mahle who gave up a hard-hit rate of 38.7% last season. Cincinnati plays in an incredibly small park which will be great for runs and home runs equally. The Cubs have an implied run total of 4.9 which feels a little low to me but hopefully it drives some ownership down, I’ll be on the Cubs a good deal tonight.
3. Milwaukee Brewers: I’m going to go right back to the Brewers here. I like them a bit last night but they just didn’t wake up until the 9th inning. I’m hoping they can carry that momentum into tonight’s game where they get a matchup with lefty Derek Holland. The Brewers have an implied run total of 5.7 runs which is close to a slate high as we are still missing a few totals. Yelich has had a slow start to the season but when he gets hot you’re not going to want to miss it. Yes, it’s a pitchers ballpark, but Holland isn’t a great pitcher outside of strikeouts here and there.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Anthony Rendon (DK – $5.2k; FD – $4.0k)

I’m back with my dinger of the day! I love me some Anthony Rendon tonight, as he is expected to make his Angels debut. Any time he gets a start against a lefty I will be heavily interested. Against lefties, he has an ISO of .289 to go along with a .590 SLG and a .401 wOBA. A matchup with a young pitcher in Justus Sheffield and likely hitting behind Mike Trout, I love this spot for Rendon. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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