Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Josh James – I love James’ upside and his ability. As an RP last season, he picked up 114 strikeouts in 78 innings. Now we know that strikeout numbers like that won’t stick now that he is in the rotation but he should still offer really strong K upside, especially early in the season. Even if he goes just 5 in this game, he could approach a double-digit K performance.
- Adrian Houser – The PIT offense just doesn’t scare me at all. Houser hasn’t put it together at the MLB level in his career yet but has shown random flashes. He had a 10K performance against the Rangers last season so the upside is certainly there. This park is definitely built to help pitchers and the Brewers, while looking pretty cold, are a road favorite here.
- Pablo Lopez – GAME IS PPD DUE TO COVID OUTBREAK WITHIN THE MARLINS ORGANIZATION
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics (-116)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
OAK is a slight favorite in a park built for pitchers (but it suppresses strikeouts). Canning looked extremely sharp in his start against the Padres during “summer camp” and had been a top-level prospect in the past. He struck out 19 batters in 18 innings against OAK last season so there is upside in his arm. Bassitt struggled against the Angels last season but he was really strong at home (69 Ks in 68.2 innings). Trout busted out with a big game on Sunday so we always have to pay attention to the top half of the Angels lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: The Angels lineup doesn’t excite me a ton but a couple of guys have solid BvP history and Trout is ALWAYS in play.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Laureano is 5 for 10 to start the season and looks really comfortable at the plate.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Padres – Joey Lucchesi
Rundown:
This game doesn’t have a line set yet but I have to imagine the total will be lower than the LAA-OAK game. ARI is hitting just .188 to begin the season, while SD is hitting at a .254 clip. This series has seen 12 extra-base hits through the first 3 games. I am a big fan of Luke Weaver overall but I think the Padres are the better side in this game.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: K.Marte and Ahmed standout BvP wise while Starling Marte has started the season solidly.
SD 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Hosmer is swinging it so dang well right now while Pham has 4 stolen bases already.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals (-128)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Trent Thornton
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
Sitting with a total of 10, this game should offer us some runs. Sanchez is the better actual SP in this game, however, TOR’s offense is better overall than that of WAS. We just saw the Nats bullpen blow a beautiful start by Corbin (we saw that bullpen blow game after game last season as well). Because of how bad that bullpen is, I really have to be intrigued by the TOR side as I just think they have more upside for our GPP builds.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Grichuk and Biggio have started really strongly for TOR
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Victor Robles
GPP Note: Nats bats have hit 5 HRs to start the season (5 different players).
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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-104)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game is going to interest me for power in this ballpark. It does suck that Moustakas went on the IL and Senzel was scratched with an illness. Interesting to see the Reds lineup but they have a couple of guys that have tormented Lester in their careers. On the other side, the Cubs are swinging the power stick to start the season, but not make a ton of meaningful contact outside of those HRs (hitting just .183 so far).
CUBS 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Nico Hoerner
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: I left out Schwarber above but it’s going to be hard to keep him out of Cubs stacks. The Cubs have 6 HRs so far
REDS 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Aristedes Aquino, Joey Votto
GPP Note: I really love the Castellanos-Suarez combination and I have a feeling Aquino could draw the start as well. Looking for HRs here and Votto has been solid against Lester and really solid to start this season.
Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays (-152)
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Mike Foltynewicz
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Rundown:
This spot is just really tough to gauge. Both SPs threw just 3 innings in their tune-up for this start and both could be limited to begin the season. The Braves are rolling their SPs out pretty slowly and I have read that Glasnow is going to be treated with care after dealing with an injury last season. I wouldn’t be shocked to see both SPs go about 4 innings which is frustrating because I like both guys as pitchers for fantasy purposes but if we can’t get the W, their price points are just too high.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Atlanta just lit up the Mets on Sunday night but now they face a tough to decipher staff in Tampa Bay. We know the upside they bring but I just can’t trust them as a stack right now (other than in my MME pool).
TB 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: TB is hitting just .164 as a team to begin the season
New York Yankees (-144) @ Philadelphia Phillies — PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – J.A. Happ
Phillies – Jake Arrieta
Rundown:
The game has a total sitting at 10 and I could see that slide up to 10.5 or maybe 11 if we get favorable weather in Philly. Neither team is destroying the ball overall but there are a few players who are putting it in play with some authority. The Yankees have K’d 30 times so far this season but Arrieta just can’t take advantage of that any longer.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Just 7 extra bases to start the season (3 games) for the Yankees but now they get to hit in a park that allows some good things to happen. I also don’t think Arrieta is all too tough of an opponent at this point.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: I do expect the Phillies to bust out at some point but I actually think they are much better against RHPs.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
I will be honest, I always want to stack against Brault because of his sleeve tattoos. For whatever reason, they trigger me. Brault allowed 12 runs in 25.2 innings against MIL last season and did strike out 26 but I think MIL has gotten stronger this season in terms of facing LHPs (not stronger overall). Houser is an interesting option as PIT is hitting right around .200 to begin the season. The problem is that the Brewers lineup is pretty cold to begin the season (Yelich and Hiura a combined 2 for 25).
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Ryan Braun, Jedd Gyorko
GPP Note: Gyorko is 4 for 8 with an HR in his career against Brault.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Josh Bell
GPP Note: I would stick to a 2-man stack or maybe add in a guy like Frazier but I just don’t see myself stacking the Pittsburgh Pirates much this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (-136)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
Both SPs have flashed solid upside in their brief careers while Cease has been best on the road and Civale has been at his best when at home (both things are true in this match-up). With that being said, I don’t like taking pitchers against these teams as the lineups are full of danger. The White Sox has 7 HRs so far and the Indians finally put up some runs after being a chalky offense to start the year.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Have to pay attention to the lineup as Moncada wasn’t in the lineup on Sunday and Jimenez left the game early.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: I love this Indians lineup and that’s tough for me to admit as a Twins fan. When the HRs start coming, they will be coming in bunches with guys like Reyes, Santana, Santana, Ramirez, and Lindor.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Montgomery
Tigers – Michael Fulmer followed by Gregory Soto
Rundown:
I am going to shock everybody and point out how much I love the Tigers against LHPs (with the lineup changes they made for this season). It’s kind of shocking to see them as a favorite in a game but they have some guys that could do damage against Montgomery. Fulmer isn’t an option as he is going to be brought along EXTREMELY slowly in his return from surgery.
KC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: I don’t love the Royals but the guys above are always solid options. Remember that the long reliever is going to be an LHP.
DET 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, JaCoby Jones
GPP Note: The Tigers have struck out 46 times so far to begin the season but it’s tough for me to not LOVE them against an LHP. Cron and Schoop are guys that have destroyed LHPs in their careers.
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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-270)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Kendall Graveman
Astros – Josh James
Rundown:
James and the Astros are huge favorites here and they should finish this series with 3 wins to the 1 loss. James had monster K numbers out of the bullpen and while we won’t see those stick as an SP, he has really solid upside against a team with a weak overall lineup. On the other side, I really don’t want much to do with anything Seattle here. The Kyle brothers are swinging it really well to begin the season so you could go there as a hedge to your own and others’ ownership of James.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: The Kyles are swinging it really freaking well to begin the season. They are a combined 8 for 22 with 6 extra-base hits.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: I am sure Maldonado shocks you a bit but he’s scorching at the plate to begin the season. Contrary to what some un-named people like to say, hot streaks are 100% real.
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins (-148) — GAME IS PPD (COVID)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
I will be 100% honest, I have basically zero interest in this game. Both of these teams should be horrendous this season and while MIA added some “names” over the offseason, most are guys that are just fighting to stay in baseball. Yes, I understand that both teams are 2-1 to begin the season but I just don’t think there’s enough upside in this game. The plus thing about this game is that both offenses are pretty weak overall and the park is built for pitching so there could be some value in the SPs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Rio Ruiz
GPP Note: Surprisingly just 17 Ks so far through 3 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: We have to pay attention to the MIA roster as 4 players just tested positive for the ‘Rona. So if you want to go out on a limb and try to win some GPP $ with the Marlins, make sure you are prepared to make pivots.
New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
New York Mets –Michael Wacha
Red Sox – Josh Osich followed by Zack Godley
Rundown:
This game has no line yet (I assume it’s waiting on the official verification of the opener-long reliever). Both teams got embarrassed on Sunday and while I think the Red Sox have the better lineup, I think that both teams make sense for GPPs as the pitching shouldn’t be able to keep guys off the base-paths. If Godley gets the call as the long-man, remember that he was released just two weeks ago by the Tigers.
METS 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Yeonis Cespedes
GPP Note: The Mets have scored just 5 runs through the first 3 games. I am thinking they bypass that total in this game alone
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Jose Peraza
GPP Note: Hitting isn’t going to be a problem for this team overall. They have 33 hits through the first 3 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Houston Astros: I know, the Astros are cheaters and they aren’t an exciting team to talk about. They are just in a great spot and full of dangerous hitters (even without Alvarez). The offense is capable of blowing up at any point and I just don’t think Graveman is going to get it done here.
- New York Yankees: The Yankees and their power are a team that we should be stacking every chance that we get. The power is ridiculous and we just saw that even if they are getting shut down, they can explode for HRs against a bullpen. There are going to be teams that I talk about all season long and this is one of them. Those teams you can stack every single day and you should put yourself in a great spot to win some GPPs throughout the season. ****PPD****
- Detroit Tigers: This one is going to surprise people, even though I pointed it out earlier. I love what guys like Cron, Schoop, and Cabrera can do against LHPs. Cron has started the season showing off his power and as a Twins fan, I was really sad to see him leave MIN even though I guess they replaced him with Josh Donaldson.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Andrew McCutchen, OF PPD DUE TO COVID
Since I am a HUGE BvP guy, I will go to the BvP well here. McCutchen has 31 PAs against Happ in his career. In those 31 PAs, he has put up an ISO of .464. He has a slugging of .893 in those 31 PAs. I think this one is off-the-wall enough for us and because of that, I will include a second Dinger call for you here. That second call is going to be Nicholas Castellanos. Castellanos has dominated Lester in his career (as has Suarez).
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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