Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

• Trevor Bauer – This was almost Zack Greinke’s spot but I like the upside with Bauer more. First off, Bauer leads the way in terms of DFSA grades among pitchers on this slate at 84.9. He gets a matchup against a Detroit Tigers team that led the league in strikeouts last season. Not only this, but Bauer ended last year with a 29.1% k rate, he should have no issue finding some strikeouts in this lineup. The Tigers have an implied run total of 3.8 runs and the lineup is just not very good. Bauer makes perfect sense to throw out there as your SP1.
• Carlos Carrasco – In the mid-range we find Mr. Carrasco sitting here with a matchup against the Royals. The thing you need to watch for here is a pitch count if they decide to give him one. I would assume they’re a little careful with him due to his injury past, but depending on that limit, he’s a full go for me. Carrasco is right there with Bauer sporting a 29.1% k rate on the season last year. The Royals aren’t the most strikeout happy team but you can get some out of them at the very least. Their lineup isn’t what it use to be, I love targeting Carrasco as a cheap SP1 or a perfectly suitable SP2.
• Vincent Velasquez – I can’t say I absolutely love Velasquez here, but he’s the cheapest pitcher that I think I’ll go down to. A matchup with the Marlins makes this one plausible, they have an implied run total of 4.3 runs after scoring just one run yesterday. There is at least a little upside here if Velasquez can find some command. He finished last season with a strikeout rate of 25.4% which is good for this price range. Another thing Velasquez has going for him is that the Marlins had a hard contact rate of just 35.9% via the Research Station below. If he can keep the Marlins to hitting soft contact and control the zone he should be an option in this low price range.

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Main Slate:

Miami Marlins (+140) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-153)

Starting Pitchers:

Marlins – Jose Urena (DK – $5.5k; FD – $5.8k)

Phillies – Vincent Velasquez (DK – $6.9k; FD – $6.6k)

Rundown:

As I mentioned above, Velasquez is going to be a cheap pitching option for me due to the Marlins inefficiencies on the offensive end. Urena is a guy that we can avoid on this slate, the Phillies have an implied run total of 5.3 runs and their order is juicy. You can definitely make a case for stacking them in this spot, they can be frustrating but they put up a late 7 runs in last night’s game and as I said, it’s a scary lineup for opposing pitching. The Marlins bullpen is not good so it doesn’t get much better for them when the Phillies run Urena off the mound.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson

GPP Note: Velasquez will be in player pool, but if you’re heavy on him I don’t mind a hedge stack here. The Marlins could be pesky if he starts missing the zone.

PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery

GPP Note: 5.3 implied run total against a bad pitching staff, what else could you ask for?

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New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – TBD

Nationals – Patrick Corbin (DK – $10.4k; FD – $9.4k)

Rundown:

We don’t have a vegas line on this game yet due to the Yankees not naming a starter. However, it looks like they’ll open up with a reliever followed by Jonathan Loaisiga. I don’t know that Loaisiga is stretched out enough to be an option at SP, so keep an eye on how deep he can go here. Corbin is an option for GPPs due to the strikeout tendencies that the Yankees have, but with those strikeout tendencies come a lot of home runs, this lineup is stacked. If I’m targeting a stack from this game it’s the Nationals. I don’t necessarily want to stack against Corbin but you can make a case for the Nats as a secondary stack on this slate.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: Tough matchup, but this team has some pop. You can use them as one-off power bats.

WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Eric Thames

4-star plays: Howie Kendrick

GPP Note: Without Soto, this lineup doesn’t look as good on paper, but it’s still respectable. I don’t hate a mini-stack from this team today

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Thomas Hatch (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.5k)

Rays – Blake Snell (DK – $10.7k; FD – $10.2k)

Rundown:

Hatch is an interesting SP on today’s slate, he’s dirt cheap on both sites and should get some decent run here. He’s never pitched above Double-A but sounds as if he’s stretched out enough to at least be eligible for the win if he can get that far. I’m not saying he’s the safest play on Earth, but if you need some money for stacking in GPPs, maybe throw him in there as a deep flyer. Blake Snell on the other side is a great option here, he had an impressive strikeout rate of 32.3% last season. This Blue Jays team is young so the strikeouts will be there, I love Snell especially for GPP. That said, I won’t have any interest in the Jays bats, but given that the Rays get to face a pitcher making his MLB debut, I like their chances of getting to him quickly making them a viable stack.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

GPP Note: Snell is a top 3 pitcher for me on this slate, I’m not going to go nuts with Jays bats here.

TBR 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Yandy Diaz

4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

GPP Note: More of a GPP stack than anything, but you never know with these MLB debuts, they can go really good or really bad for the starter.

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Mike Montgomery (DK – $6.5k; $6.0k)

Indians – Carlos Carrasco (DK – $8.6k; FD – $9.1k)

Rundown:

Carrasco made my pitchers section at the beginning of this article, his price makes him a great option in that tier, so I’ll be staying away from the Royals bats. The Indians are a different story however, Montgomery isn’t exactly an elite pitcher and can be had if you get to him early. The Indians offense is scary enough to do some damage and make sense as a GPP stack, he’s a lefty so target those big righty power hitters and get yourself a stack that works for you.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, Carrasco will get some SP usage out of me

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow

4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: I like the Indians quite a bit as a GPP stack, Montgomery is prone to giving up some big outings

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Detroit Tigers (+162) @ Cincinnati Reds (-177)

Starting Pitchers:

Tigers – Spencer Turnbull (DK – $7.1k; FD – $6.6k)

Reds – Trevor Bauer (DK – $10.1k; FD – $9.7k)

Rundown:

Trevor Bauer is my SP1 on this slate as mentioned earlier, there are a lot of strikeouts to be had in this Tiger lineup. So even if they scrape up a couple of runs, he should be more than fine in the end. Turnbull, on the other hand, isn’t an option for me. This is a hitter-friendly park against a much-improved offense. The Reds have an implied run total of 5.5 runs and make sense as a nice little stack here. Turnbull gave up a hard contact rate of 40.2% last year and the bullpen behind him isn’t much better as the Research Station states below. You may see the Reds show up in my top stacks section later on.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll be all over Bauer here, so no Tigers bats for me.

CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez

4-star plays: Joey Votto, Shogo Akiyama

GPP Note: They’re one of the better stacks on the late slate, load up on ’em!

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Baltimore Orioles (+177) @ Boston Red Sox (-195)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – Wade LeBlanc (DK – $6.0k; FD – $5.6k)

Red Sox – Ryan Weber (DK – $6.4k; FD – $6.1k)

Rundown:

Battle of aces here huh? Sheesh, this is an ugly pitching matchup. The Orioles had a nice day yesterday and the Red Sox are the Red Sox, I won’t be having an interest in either of these pitchers. You can go back to the Orioles stack if you want, but I don’t think you need to on this slate. The Red Sox, however, are a top stacking option here. They have an implied run total of 6.5 runs and get another Orioles lefty. It appears the wind will be blowing out to right field at around 12 mph today, we may see a few extra bombs. Oh… and did I hear a lefty against the Red Sox? Fire up the lefty masher in JD Martinez, check out his splits against lefties below from the Research Station!

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Austin Hays, Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez

GPP Note: If you’re going to stack them, I would make it a mini-stack. I just don’t think the Orioles have the firepower to go back to back nights of good offense.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi

GPP Note: I don’t know how sneaky they’ll be, but they’re a top stack for me.

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Seattle Mariners (+221) @ Houston Astros (-246)

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi (DK – $5.4k; FD – $6.0k)

Astors – Zack Greinke (DK – $10.9k; FD – $9.6k)

Rundown:

Greinke is right up there with Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer as a top pitching option for me. He gets a Mariners team that was second only to the Tigers in strikeouts last season and have an implied run total of 3.5 runs, he feels as safe as they come today. Kikuchi, on the other hand, is a no go against this Astros team. With an implied run total of 5.6 runs, the Astros are certainly stackable today, as they crushed lefties last season. The Research Station is showing a whole lot of red for Kikuchi today (see below).

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: There’s just nothing here to like, literally nothing.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel

GPP Note: There’s a whole lot to like from the Astros here, they’re an elite stack on this slate.

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Minnesota Twins (-112) @ Chicago White Sox (+104)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Kenta Maeda (DK – $9.0k; FD – $7.4k)

White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez (DK – $8.1k; FD – $7.1k)

Rundown:

The Twins might be the scariest lineup in all of baseball. Reynaldo Lopez has no issue giving up big games either. He had a fly ball rate of 46% leading to 1.45 HR/9… I’ll tell you one thing, that won’t work against the Twins. They are one of my favorite stacks on the day with an implied run total of 5.8 runs. The White Sox are less interesting to me, Kenta Maeda is really pretty good at avoiding the big inning and limiting damage. You can chase some one-off’s here, but I wouldn’t get too crazy.

MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson

4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco

GPP Note: They can put up a lot of runs very quickly, they’ll be a top stacking option for me later in this article.

CHW 5-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Yoan Moncada

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson

GPP Note: 4.8 implied run total feels a little high, but they do have some nice bats in this lineup. That said, a mini-stack is probably as far as I’ll go here.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+129) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-140)

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Dakota Hudson (DK – $9.3k; FD – $7.7k)

Pirates – Mitch Keller (DK – $8.0k; FD – $6.5k)

Rundown:

You can make a case for Dakota Hudson here against an average Pirates offense. That said, it’s hot in St. Louis with the wind blowing out to left, I don’t know how much I want to get to either of these pitchers to be honest. The Cardinals make an intriguing secondary stack with an implied run total of 4.9 runs against Brad Keller. The Pirates just don’t have the firepower I’m looking for in a stacking option so they likely won’t make the cut for me.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell, Kevin Newman

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, this offense doesn’t impress me much.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter

GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but you can certainly make a case for them given their implied run total.

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Milwaukee Brewers (+107) @ Chicago Cubs (-115)

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Freddy Peralta (DK – $8.2k; FD – $5.9k)

Cubs – Tyler Chatwood (DK – $4.9k; FD – $5.7k)

Rundown:

We have arrived at my favorite game to stack on the slate, a wind game at Wrigley! Both teams have implied run totals over 5.5 here and should be able to tee off on one another. Before I dig too much into hitting, there’s a case to be made for Freddy Peralta on FanDuel at that price tag. He’s been working on a third pitch this offseason and can strike guys out with the best of them. He’s not a cash pitcher by any means, but if you’re in a GPP looking to stack up an expensive team, look no further. Both of these offenses are great stacking options due to the wind, I’m tempted to lean with the Brewers as a top stacking option later in this article, simply due to the better matchup they have against Chatwood.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura

4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak, Lorenzo Cain

GPP Note: 5.5 implied run total with the wind blowing out at 15 mph to dead center… yeah sign me up against Tyler Chatwood.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

4-star plays: Javier Baez

GPP Note: They may end up being the more popular side of this game, but I’m leaning Brewers. The Cubs are more than a viable stack however.

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Colorado Rockies (+115) @ Texas Rangers (-124)

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – Kyle Freeland (DK – $4.7k; FD – $6.3k)

Rangers – Corey Kluber (DK – $10.3k; FD – $8.9k)

Rundown:

Kyle Freeland is a no from me even against a fairly average Rangers lineup. Corey Kluber is interesting, the Rockies will strikeout a bunch but we’ve seen Kluber give up a big game or two in his career. I think he’s a fine GPP option, but Snell, Greinke, and Bauer are all ahead of him in my book. In terms of stacking, both teams are fine but with the offenses we have on this slate I’ll stick with one-offs and mini-stacks, there’s not a lot that jumps out to me here.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story

GPP Note: You can make a case for a mini-stack here if you’re feeling frisky, but I’ll probably stick to one-offs considering the prices of their elite guys.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo

4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo

GPP Note: Is Freeland good? No. But this Rangers lineup isn’t all that great either.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) @ San Diego Padres (-119)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks –Zac Gallen (DK – $6.9k)

Padres – Garrett Richards (DK – $7.8k)

Rundown:

Similar to that Rangers game, there’s not a whole lot that jumps off the page to me here. Gallen is a great young pitcher that I’m expecting to take a leap this year, but this Padres lineup is much improved as well. On a slate with great pitching and stacking options, neither of these teams really cuts it. I will say, Garrett Richards had a nice strikeout rate at 26.9% last season if you fall in this range and are needing a pitching option, I think you could do worse than Richards.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, David Peralta

GPP Note: Just one-offs here due to the tough park

SDP 5-star plays:  Tommy Pham, Manny Machado

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers

GPP Note: I wouldn’t be all too thrilled to stack against Gallen

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Los Angeles Angels (-101) @ Oakland Athletics (-107)

Starting Pitchers:

Angels – Shohei Ohtani (FD – $8.0k)

Athletics – Mike Fiers (FD – $7.1k)

Rundown:

Ohtani can throw, that is for sure. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they baby him a bit this year after being banged up all last season, so I’m not sure how aggressive they’ll be with his pitch count. I don’t want any part of stacking the A’s against him with that said. You can play some Angeles bats here however, Mike Fiers can give up big games with the best of ’em, the only thing is the ballpark is about as bad as you can get for hitting. There are some big gaps in the outfield but just not a good home run park.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Justin Upton

GPP Note: Furthest I’ll go here is a mini-stack, this lineup isn’t pretty with Ohtani out if

OAK 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman

GPP Note: One-offs here, I’m not stacking against Ohtani

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Atlanta Braves (+100) @ New York Mets (-109)

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Sean Newcomb (DK – $6.4k; FD – $5.8k)

Mets – Rick Porcello (DK – $8.0k; FD – $6.9k)

Rundown:

This is a bit of an island game, but you’ll be able to find a slate on it somewhere. I really don’t like either of these pitchers, so let’s load up on some bats here. Both teams have an implied run total of at least 4.8 runs and it’s hot in New York. The ball is going to be flying here, if I’m picking a stack it’s going to be the Braves even though they let me down yesterday, you have to have a short memory when it comes to DFS. This lineup is stacked and I like going right back to it.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley

4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Freddie Freeman

GPP Note: This is a great spot against a, dare I say, washed up Rick Porcello

NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso

4-star plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Jeff McNeil, JD Davis

GPP Note: You can definitely stack against Sean Newcomb, they make a lot of sense here in a late slate

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San Francisco Giants  @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – TBD

Dodgers – Julio Urias (DK – $9.3k; FD – $7.6k)

Rundown:

This is a case where I fear trusting Dave Roberts. Urias is one of there more prized possessions and I’m not so sure Roberts is willing to let Urias go out there and push for 6 or 7 innings. That said, it is the Giants and their awful offense. There will be a cheat sheet for this showdown slate, so keep an eye out for that to get a deeper dive into this game. Short story, play the Dodgers bats… AGAIN.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: This team just isn’t very good, not a whole lot of interest in stacking it in any form.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy

4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner

GPP Note: Stack ’em up no matter who starts for the Giants, this offense is elite.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Minnesota Twins: The Twins are my favorite stack of the day and number two according to the Research Station below. They get a great matchup against Reynaldo Lopez and have an implied run total of 5.8 runs which I think is actually low. This team can hit with the best of ’em and if Lopez leaves a few guys on base, watch out for that home run ball. I love the Twins today, go get ’em!
2. Boston Red Sox: I think the Red Sox have made my top stacks list every day this season, but with this Orioles pitching staff, it’s not too hard to imagine why. The Sox have an implied run total of 6.5 runs which leads the slate by a good margin. Wade LeBlanc isn’t a pitcher to fear and there are a lot of big bats in this Boston lineup, they’re a great stack again as the Research Station has them at number three behind the Dbacks and Twins.
3. Milwaukee Brewers: A wind game in Wrigley with a bad starting pitcher on the bump? Yeah, I’m in. The Brewers have an implied run total of 5.5 runs here and really got to that Cubs pitching staff yesterday. I would expect to see Ryan Braun back in the lineup today which gives the lineup a nice boost. I’ll keep it short and sweet here with them, bad pitcher, the wind blowing out, good offense, let’s get it.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Eddie Rosario (DK – $4.3k; FD – $3.2k)

We’ve got a bit of a cheaper option for the home run call today! Mr. Rosario… come on downnnnnnn! As mentioned earlier, Reynaldo Lopez is prone to giving up hard-hit fly balls, well what does Rosario do best? He hits the ball hard into the air – he has a fly ball rate of 45.9% against righties and a hard contact rate of 39.6% combined with a 0.514 SLG and 0.232 ISO. Nelson Cruz went deep yesterday as the Dinger of the Day, let’s get two straight! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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