Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

• Yu Darvish – Darvish is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate and draws a matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. There isn’t a run total for this game yet due to the potential wind at Wrigley, right now it appears the wind will be blowing out to left at about 7 mph, which isn’t terrible considering what the wind can do in that park. That said, the Cubs are -142 favorites and the Brewers bats looked quiet last night against Hendricks. Darvish is dominating the Carnage Report with a 2.55 Carnage score and the highest KScore on the slate at 631 (See below). I think there’s more risk in this spot than people may think, but the upside is certainly there for Darvish.

• Ryan Yarbrough – It appears that Yarbrough is stretched out enough to consider as a pitcher on this slate. He threw 87 pitches in Monday’s intrasquad game and should be a full go here today. He gets a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays who come in with a 3.7 implied run total, which is actually a slate low. He rates highly on the Carnage Report and is really quite cheap, so playing him will help the rest of your roster construction at the very least. The Jays have a lot of young talent so they can get streaky, but I’ll take my chances here with Mr. Yarbrough.
• Lance McCullers – I plan on attacking pitching against this Mariners offense all season long. McCullers is similar to Yarbrough in that there could be some innings concerns on how stretched out he is, but he threw 76 pitches in his last exhibition game on Monday. If he can get that number into the upper 80’s or low 90’s I think we’ll be solid in this matchup. My expectation is that the Mariners roll out 5-6 lefties today, if we go back to 2018, McCullers had an impressive 31.4% k rate against left-handed bats. His price isn’t too crippling and could even be used as a cheap SP1, I like the thought of McCullers on today’s slate.

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Main Slate:

Milwaukee Brewers (+131) @ Chicago Cubs (-142)

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Corbin Burnes (DK – $6.2k; FD – $5.7k)

Cubs – Yu Darvish (DK – $10.5k; FD – $9.3k)

Rundown:

As mentioned above, Darvish is one of the top pitching options on the slate, but it doesn’t come without risk. In GPP’s I think you can get away from him and even stack against him if he gets to the point where he becomes chalk. As far as Corbin Burnes goes, I’m really intrigued that he’s getting the start on game 2. He was pretty terrible last year after basically leading the Brewers bullpen to the NLCS in 2018. He’s been incredible in “summer camp” and really has a chance to shine here. He’s dirt cheap, but I just don’t know how long Counsell will let him go, let’s use this game as a barometer for going forward. I think both of these teams are stackable especially if we hear that Wrigley’s wind is going to get up near that 10mph range.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura

4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak

GPP Note: If Darvish starts to get popular, I may zig while others zag and get myself some Brewers stacks.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

4-star plays: Javier Baez

GPP Note: They may end up being one of the better stacks on the slate, but the word out on Burnes is that he’s much improved and not hanging that slider that got him in trouble last season, so take that for what it’s worth. Similar story here though, if that wind gets any more intense, it’s all systems go.

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Baltimore Orioles (+177) @ Boston Red Sox (-195)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – Alex Cobb (DK – $5.2k; FD – $6.0)

Red Sox – Martin Perez (DK – $5.5k; FD – $6.7k)

Rundown:

I’ll make this short and sweet from the pitching side of things, I have no interest in either guy. The bats are a different story, the Red Sox have an implied run total of 6.2 runs here and played very well on opening night going for 13 runs as the chalk of the slate. You can go right back to them here and they’ll make my top stacks section again. From the Orioles side of things, I would like to have some interest in some of these bats, but this offense is just so bad… it’s gonna be a no from me dawg.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: This team needs to show me they have actual major league talent on offense before I’m going to get too crazy with them.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi

GPP Note: I don’t know how sneaky they’ll be, but they’re a top stack for me.

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Minnesota Twins (-112) @ Chicago White Sox (+104)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Randy Dobnak (DK – $5.8k; FD – $5.6k)

White Sox – Dallas Keuchel (DK – $6.7k; FD – $7.0k)

Rundown:

The Twins showed last night why I won’t be playing pitching against them this season, regardless of who it is. They can put up runs in a hurry with all the power in this lineup, so Dallas Keuchel will be a stay away for me and I’m certainly not playing Randy Dobnak from the Twins side of things. Both of these teams are certainly stackable given the firepower they have on offense. I would actually prefer the White Sox even though they have the lower implied run total. Dobnak wasn’t terrible last season, but this is a new and improved White Sox lineup, both of these teams are in play for me today. Also, if you’re looking for a one-off option, go get yourself some Nelson Cruz, the man destroys lefties, check out his splits below from the Starting Lineups page.

MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson

4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco

GPP Note: They can put up a lot of runs very quickly, they’ll be a playable stack for me almost every day this season.

CHW 5-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Yoan Moncada

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson

GPP Note: 4.9 implied run total, let’s see if they can give Dobnak the big league welcome.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+133) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-144)

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Adam Wainwright (DK – $9.2k; FD – $7.7k)

Pirates – Trevor Williams (DK – $5.8k; FD – $6.8k)

Rundown:

You can make a case for Adam Wainwright here against a weak Pirates lineup. The only thing is Wainwright isn’t a big strikeout pitcher and the Pirates aren’t a big strikeout team, so you need to hope that he just shuts them down from the jump. He’s overpriced in my opinion on DK but he’s playable on FanDuel for GPPs. Trevor Williams is a no go for me, the Cardinals are pesky even with losing Ozuna this offseason, they have an implied run total of 5 I just don’t think you need to go with Williams here. I won’t be stacking the Pirates a whole lot this season and this isn’t one of those times. The Cardinals are interesting because of how cheap they are, but nothing really jumps off the page to me in the stats department.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell, Kevin Newman

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, this offense doesn’t impress me much.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter

GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but you can certainly make a case for them given their implied run total.

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Toronto Blue Jays (+131) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-142)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker (DK – $8.3k; FD – $7.2k)

Rays – Ryan Yarbrough (DK – $7.3k; FD – $6.5k)

Rundown:

As mentioned earlier, Yarbrough is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate given where his salary is and that low implied run total fo the Jays. I don’t know that I love Matt Shoemaker here, the Rays are sneaky good on offense and are pretty big favorites here, I’ll make him prove it to me in his first start. Neither team really grades out that great in the Research Station but if I had to pick one to stack it would be the Rays (obviously). They have an implied run total of 4.7 runs, but until they get Austin Meadows back I’m not going to go wild with them.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

GPP Note: You can make a hedge stack here if you find yourself getting too much of Yarbrough, like I said, this is a young team and they’ll get into streaks that you don’t want to be on the other end of.

TBR 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Yandy Diaz

4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

GPP Note: More of a GPP stack than anything, not a whole lot that jumps off the page for me.

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Miami Marlins (+173) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190)

Starting Pitchers:

Marlins – Caleb Smith (DK – $6.9k; FD – $7.1k)

Phillies – Zach Wheeler (DK – $10.1k; FD – $9.0k)

Rundown:

I have interest in both of these pitchers actually. Wheeler was a contender for me to be the top arm on the slate against this bad Marlins offense. The Marlins had a strikeout rate of 24.32% last season to go along with Wheeler’s strikeout abilities, he’s a top-end pitcher for me. Caleb Smith feels very cheap here, I get it it’s a great Phillies offense and Smith ended the year on a bit of a bender, but the strikeout stuff is there. The thing wit the Phillies is they strike out at a 20% clip using last year’s stats. I’ll leave Smith for GPPs but he’s definitely interesting. As much as I like Smith for GPPs, the Phillies are in play as a GPP stack as well. They have an implied run total of 5.15 and have one of the better offenses on the slate.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson

GPP Note: I like Wheeler too much to even think about a Miami stack here, I do like some of their new pieces in Villar and Dickerson however.

PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery

GPP Note: With a lefty on the mound we can target some of these right-handed bats and throw Harper in the middle of that stack as well. Great stack in all formats today.

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Colorado Rockies (+115) @ Texas Rangers (-124)

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – Jon Gray (DK – $8.1k; FD – $7.6k)

Rangers – Mike Minor (DK – $9.0k; FD – $8.4k)

Rundown:

These teams have some bigger run totals than I was expecting considering this pitching matchup. It feels much like yesterday where we have two competent pitchers who have an immense upside. If I’m picking one of these guys, it would actually be the saving s and Jon Gray. The Rangers are one of the heaviest strikeout teams in the league, the Carnage Report on Gray isn’t great but for tournaments, he makes a lot of sense and actually does grade out higher than Minor which should tell you something. I don’t have a whole lot of interest in stacking either of these teams, the bottom of their orders gets ugly in a hurry.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story

GPP Note: You can make a case for a mini-stack here if you’re feeling frisky, but I’ll probably stick to one-offs considering the prices of their elite guys.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo

4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo

GPP Note: I like Gray quite a bit, I don’t see myself getting to a lot of the Rangers here.

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Atlanta Braves (-110) @ New York Mets (+102)

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Max Fried (DK – $8.7k; FD – $7.5k)

Mets – Steven Matz (DK – $7.2k; FD – $7.3k)

Rundown:

The Braves are very interesting to me here. Matz can be either really good or really bad and this Braves offense is nothing to ignore. They have an implied run total of 4.6 runs and it looks like it’s going to be hot with the wind blowing out in New York. The Braves may end up being one of my top GPP stacks on this main slate. The Mets, on the other hand, I’m not going to mess with against Max Fried, he proved last season that he’s here to stay and really shuts down rhythm with the best of ’em.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley

4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Freddie Freeman

GPP Note: I plan to be overweight on the Braves today, I like this spot quite a bit.

NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso

4-star plays: Yoenis Cespedes

GPP Note: Just the one-off power bats for me here.

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Los Angeles Angels (+116) @ Oakland Athletics (-126)

Starting Pitchers:

Angels – Dylan Bundy (DK – $7.7k; FD – $7.0k)

Athletics – Sean Manaea (DK – $10.0k; FD – $7.8k)

Rundown:

We all remember Mr. Bundy with the Orioles last season, he’s either really good or really bad which makes him pretty good to stack against. If he’s on his game well then you move on, but it’s evident pretty early when he’s not on which puts me on the Athletics today. I said yesterday that the A’s were a GPP stack of mine quite a bit last season and that’s how it’s turned out again to start this season.  The Angels are a team that I’ll be mini-stacking more than full stacking this season due to the bottom of that order being pretty weak, but you can make a case for a mini-stack even with a little Manaea interest as well.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Justin Upton

GPP Note: As mentioned, the furthest I would go here is a mini-stack due to the bottom of this order.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano

GPP Note: The A’s were my GPP stack go to all of last season, we start this season off with no change! I like them as a GPP option against Bundy here.

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San Francisco Giants  @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – TBD

Dodgers – Alex Wood (DK – $7.8k; FD – $6.8k)

Rundown:

The more I think about it the more I like Alex Wood on this slate and he may end up being my go-to SP2. This Giants offense is just so bad, Stipling went 7 innings of one-run ball on them last night. I’m going to go right back to the well here with Dodgers pitching. We don’t have a pitcher named yet for the Giants, but does it really matter who it is? The Dodgers are a great stacking option, as they will likely be all season long due to the firepower up and down this lineup. They grade out very well in the Starting Lineups page below.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: This team just isn’t very good, not a whole lot of interest in stacking it in any form.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy

4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner

GPP Note: Stack ’em up no matter who starts for the Giants, this offense is elite.

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Seattle Mariners (+218) @ Houston Astros (-242)

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Taijuan Walker (DK – $5.0k; FD – $5.6k)

Astors – Lance McCullers (DK – $8.5k; FD – $8.0k)

Rundown:

As I mentioned in my pitcher’s section, I’ll have some interest in McCullers here. The Mariners will strikeout early and often and just don’t have great bats at any spot in this order. Taijuan Walker may start this game but I don’t see him lasting long. The Astros have an implied run total of 5.9 runs here and are right there with the Dodgers in competition for once of the best lineups in baseball. I’ll never talk you off stacking this team, so fire ’em right back up tonight.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: There’s just nothing here to like, literally nothing.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel

GPP Note: There’s a whole lot to like from the Astros here, they’re an elite stack on this slate.

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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. Oakland Athletics: In no particular order I’ll start things off with Oakland. I’m going to go out on a limb and say we don’t get good Dylan Bundy today which means he could be in for a long day against this Oakland offense. They have an implied run total of 4.6 runs and the Research Station has them ranked as a top 3 stack on the main slate – see below. No, the park factor isn’t great, but it’s a cheap enough stack where you can basically do what you want at pitching and still have the same upside as a Boston/Los Angeles.
2. Boston Red Sox: It’s hard not to go back to the Red Sox here after what they did to the Orioles last night. They have an implied total of 6.0 runs and get a juicy matchup with Alex Cobb. It doesn’t get much better for the Orioles after Cobb is ran off the mound either. They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. According to the Research Station, their bullpen ranks 28th in the game. Boston put up 13 runs last night, I’ll go right back to them again today.
3. Atlanta Braves: I talked myself on to this stack while working through the article. They get a matchup wit ha left-handed pitcher which means the righties in this lineup should get the scoring going early and often. It’s hot with the wind blowing out in new York. I think Matz is in for a tough day today against a stacked Braves lineup. An implied run total of 4.6 isn’t mind-blowing, but it’s enough to keep me interested and I think they’ll come in fairly low owned, love me some Braves today.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz (DK – $4.9k; FD – $3.6k)

As I mentioned earlier, Nelson Cruz against a left-handed pitcher is danger waiting to happen. He’s got a 0.461 ISO and a 0.464 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2019 and I don’t expect that to change much this season. He’s got a 91.8 DFSA grade and in one of the best offenses in baseball. Go get yourself some Nelson Cruz today and thank me later! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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Late Games:

Detroit Tigers (+192) @ Cincinnati Reds (-212)

Starting Pitchers:

Tigers – Ivan Nova (DK – $5.5k; FD – $6.6k)

Reds – Luis Castillo (DK – $8.0k; FD – $9.8k)

Rundown:

Luis Castillo is one of the better pitching options on this late slate of games. The Tigers led the league in strikeouts last season and Castillo had a 26% k rate to go along with it. I love Castillo on the late slate, he’ll be in a lot of my lineups. The Reds are also very stackable against Nova, they have a 5.5 implied run total. They put up 7 runs last night and get another great matchup tonight, as Nova isn’t exactly what they call an “ace”. On the otherwise, I have no interest in the Tigers as you would assume with Castillo being one of my top pitchers.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll be all over Castillo here, so no Tigers bats for me.

CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez

4-star plays: Joey Votto, Shogo Akiyama

GPP Note: They’re one of the better stacks on the late slate, load up on ’em!

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Kansas City Royals (+210) @ Cleveland Indians (-234)

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Brady Singer (DK – $4.5k; $5.5k)

Indians – Mike Clevinger (DK – $9.8k; FD – $10.4k)

Rundown:

Speaking of top-flight pitching options, Brady Singer is a… I’m kidding. Singer will make his MLB debut here, so we’ll need to keep an eye on how it goes but the Indians are going to give him a bad greeting. They have a 5.6 run implied total and should be able to take care of business here. However, we do have an elite pitching option on the other side with Clevinger. Last season he had a 28.7% k rate and the Royals have some strikeouts in that lineup. With an implied run total of just 3.7, Clevinger is right there with Castillo as my favorite option on this late slate.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: Just one-offs here and that’s being generous, Clevinger is legit.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow

4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: I like the Indians quite a bit as a GPP stack, Singer is an unknown but I don’t mind attacking him anyway.

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New York Yankees (-128) @ Washington Nationals (+119)

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – James Paxton (DK – $9.0k; FD – $8.7k)

Nationals – Stephen Strasburg (DK – $10.0k; FD – $9.9k)

Rundown:

Both lineups have a pretty tough matchup here, as both of these pitchers are legit. That said, so are these lineups. This will likely be a pretty big stay away spot for me considering the other games and options on this slate, I just don’t think there is a huge edge to be had by stacking one of these teams. The one thing that I could see getting interested in is going with Stephen Strasburg. The Yankees will strikeout as we saw when Scherzer got into a groove on opening night. Other than that, I’m steering away from this game.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: Tough matchup, but this team has some pop. You can use them as one-off power bats.

WAS 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick

GPP Note: Without Soto, this lineup doesn’t look as good on paper, but it’s still respectable. Paxton is good enough to where I’ll go somewhere else on this slate.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+116) @ San Diego Padres (-126)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray (DK – $6.9k; FD – $8.4k)

Padres – Dinelson Lamet (DK – $7.8k; FD – $8.0k)

Rundown:

Similar to that Yankees game, I have respect for both of these pitchers so I’m not sure how much interest I’ll have in the opposing bats. One thing that jumped out to me was the prices on these pitchers, they seem very soft if you’re looking for an SP2 and don’t have the money to pair Clevinger and Castillo. Other than the potential pitching, I don’t see a whole lot here that I love, although you could make a case for some of those lefty mashers on the Padre’s with Ray on the mound.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, David Peralta

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, tough park and pitcher.

SDP 5-star plays: Wil Myers, Tommy Pham, Manny Machado

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis

GPP Note: It seems like the prices came back up on these guys, but Ray can certainly be had if you’re looking for an off the board stack for the late slate.

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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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