Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

• Justin Verlander – Verlander is the highest-priced pitcher on the board, but for good reason. He draws a great matchup against a fairly weak Seattle Mariners club. The Mariners have an implied run total of 3.1 runs and are +261 underdogs against Verlander and the Astros. The Mariners were also second in the league in striking out last season, as you know in MLB, strikeouts are king. Verlander led the league in wins and was second in strikeouts in 2019, he’s the true ace of the slate and if you can afford him, do it.
• Jack Flaherty – Flaherty finished the 2019 season on one hell of a heater, going for 20+ DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games. Obviously it’s a new year and things are a bit different, but at just 24 years old he’s one of the brightest young pitchers in the game. He draws a home matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates who have an implied run total of 3.6 runs and are +169 underdogs. In the mid-range, Flaherty makes a lot of sense as a low priced SP1 or a high priced SP2.
• Ross Stripling – I always like to provide a high tier, middle tier, and cheap option in these three pitchers. I was between Stripling and Nathan Eovaldi for this last spot, but I think Stripling provides a bit more safety in his spot. He’ll take on the mediocre San Francisco Giants who have an implied run total of 3.5 runs here and are big underdogs as they were last night. Stripling should have a great chance at securing a win if Dave Roberts leaves him in the game long enough. Half the battle with the Dodgers is maneuvering around Dave Roberts, but we’ll make do. When I’m looking for a cheap pitcher, I still want some strikeout upside. If we go to the Research Station, we can see that Stripling has a respectable K-Score of 508 compared to the slate leader Justin Verlander, with a 585. Stripling had some success last season and makes a lot of sense as a cheap pitching option.

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Early Games – Quick Hitters:

Friday begins with three games that aren’t on the main slate but do have some turbo and showdown slates that can be played (the two late afternoon games will be on the FanDuel slate). I’ll run through these very briefly and then dig deeper into the main slate. Any questions on these early games can be answered in our coaching forums, one of our greatest tools on the site.

Atlanta Braves (+131) @ New York Mets (-143)

• Mike Soroka vs Jacob DeGrom

Detroit Tigers (+153) @ Cincinnati Reds (-167)

• Matt Boyd vs Sonny Gray

Toronto Blue Jays (+139) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-151)

• Hyun-jin Ryu vs Charlie Morton

We have cheat sheets for all main slates that highlight who we see as the best plays of the slate. Given that Atlanta/New York is an island game for the day, we’ll have a cheat sheet for this showdown slate as well, below is a sneak peek at it, go check it out!

My initial thought would be to jam in both of those pitchers as targeting bats against DeGrom is less than fun, to say the least. Soroka is no slouch either, it should be a fun little pitchers duel to kick us off. Then we get to this two-game turbo slate with the Tigers/Reds and Blue Jays/Rays. My favorite pitcher on the slate would be Sonny Gray – the Tigers led the league in strikeouts last season and you’ll hear me say it all year long, strikeouts are king in MLB DFS. Not to mention, the Tigers lineup is just not good in general. In terms of a favorite stack, it’s tough not to like the Reds at home in a hitters ballpark. They lead these two games with a 4.9 implied run total and have an improved offense since last season. I think the Rays could be sneaky here as well but the Reds would be my team.

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Main Slate:

Miami Marlins (+172) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-189)

Starting Pitchers:

Marlins – Sandy Alcantara (DK – $6.8k; FD – $6.8k)

Phillies – Aaron Nola (DK – $9.1k; FD – $9.9k)

Rundown:

Aaron Nola is an intriguing pitching option here. The Marlins are not good, although they did get some major league talent in the offseason, but major league talent that is still prone to the strikeout. Alcantara isn’t a guy that I want to target in DFS, there just isn’t enough strikeouts there for me to have interest. A Phillies stack is something that I can get behind however, I’ll touch on this a little more later in my stacks section.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson

GPP Note: I like Nola too much to even think about a Miami stack here, I do like some of their new pieces in Villar and Dickerson however.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce

4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto

GPP Note: The Phillies are going to make my top stacks section later in this article, I love this spot for them.

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Kansas City Royals (+203) @ Cleveland Indians (-225)

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Danny Duffy (DK – $6.4k; $6.7k)

Indians – Shane Bieber (DK – $10.3k; FD – $10.2k)

Rundown:

Shane Bieber was close to making my brief pitcher breakdown at the beginning of this article. But he just wasn’t going to beat out Justin Verlander as a high priced option. The Royals do have some dangerous spots in their order, but Bieber is a great young pitcher with strikeout upside (28% last season). The Indians bats should be in a good spot here as well, they have an implied run total of 5.2 runs against a pretty weak lefty in Danny Duffy. This team crushed lefties last season, as made evident by the Research Station below. I don’t see myself getting a whole lot of Royals exposure against Bieber on the other side.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: Just one-offs here and that’s being generous, Bieber is legit.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jordan Luplow

4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: I like the Indians quite a bit as a GPP stack, Duffy isn’t good and as I mentioned, they hit lefties extremely well last season.

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Milwaukee Brewers (+114) @ Chicago Cubs (-123)

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Brandon Woodruff (DK – $7.7k; FD – $8.7k)

Cubs – Kyle Hendricks (DK – $7.4k; FD – $7.7k)

Rundown:

We’ve got a couple of interesting SP2 options in this game. They’re both priced reasonably and can both be extremely effective. If I had to pick one it would be Woodruff due to his strikeout ability, Hendricks isn’t exactly known to be a high strikeout guy. With both of these guys in play as SP2’s, I don’t see myself stacking up either of these clubs, but one-offs are certainly viable with the firepower that both of these teams have.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura

4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak

GPP Note: You can make a case for a mini-stack here if you’re feeling frisky, but I’ll probably stick to one-offs. Hendricks can be dangerous when he’s hitting his corners.

CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

GPP Note: Similar to the Brewers, you can make a case for a mini-stack, but I’ll be sticking with one-offs for the most part.

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Baltimore Orioles (+199) @ Boston Red Sox (-220)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – Tommy Milone (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.6k)

Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi (DK – $7.1k; FD – $7.1k)

Rundown:

Step 1 – don’t play Tommy Milone

Step 2 – stack against Tommy Milone

Jokes aside, this is a great spot for the Red Sox. They have an implied run total of 6.1 and although they lost Mookie, they still have a great lineup. You’ll see the Red Sox in my tops stacks section later in the article. Just to touch on one guy, in particular, JD Martinez absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. He leads the slate with a 100 DFSA grade, check out these numbers against lefties below from the Research Station.

Nathan Eovaldi was almost my cheap pitching option at the beginning of the article, but I just don’t think he has the same strikeout upside as Stripling. The O’s offense is really ugly at the moment, I’ll be sticking with one-offs from this team.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: There’s really nothing I feel confident in from this Orioles team, I’ll stay away for now. I may get a sprinkle of Eovaldi as well as a cheap SP2 option.

BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi

GPP Note: I don’t know how sneaky they’ll be, but they’re a top stack for me.

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Colorado Rockies (+111) @ Texas Rangers (-120)

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – German Marquez (DK – $8.7k; FD – $8.2k)

Rangers – Lance Lynn (DK – $8.9k; FD – $8.3k)

Rundown:

German Marquez is pretty interesting to me, I’ll have interest in him anytime he’s not pitching in Coors Field. He finished last year with a 26.3% k rate and the Rangers are no strangers to striking out. Marquez makes a lot of sense in that price range and I would prefer him over Lance Lynn who is right around that same price. I’m not huge on either offense here, both of these pitchers are pesky enough where I’ll stick with one-offs in this game.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story

GPP Note: You can make a case for a mini-stack here if you’re feeling frisky, but I’ll probably stick to one-offs. Lynn is can be good at avoiding the big inning.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo

4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo

GPP Note: I like Marquez quite a bit, I don’t see myself getting to a lot of the Rangers here.

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Minnesota Twins (-103) @ Chicago White Sox (-105)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Jose Berrios (DK – $9.6k; FD – $9.2k)

White Sox – Lucas Giolito (DK – $9.5k; FD – $9.5k)

Rundown:

Another tough pitching matchup for both offenses and really the same can be said for both pitchers as well. Both of these offenses scare me enough to avoid both pitchers and both of these pitchers scare me enough to avoid both offenses. This is pretty much a stay-away game for me as odd as it sounds.

MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario

4-star plays: Max Kepler

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, Giolito is legit.

CHW 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, Edwin Encarnacion

GPP Note: I would have a lot more interest in this team if they weren’t so expensive. Berrios can certainly give up a big game or two so if you have the money and want to go here in GPPs I don’t hate it and will be super low owned.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+169) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-185)

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Jack Flaherty (DK – $9.0k; FD – $10.5k)

Pirates – Joe Musgrove (DK – $6.9k; FD – $6.5k)

Rundown:

As mentioned earlier, Jack Flaherty is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate. The one issue with the matchup is the Pirates can avoid the strikeout and can be pesky. He’s really more of a DraftKings play due to his price on FanDuel, but nonetheless I think he has a solid outing here, solid enough to where I’ll be fading the Pirates bats. Musgrove is an interesting GPP pitcher, he only had a 21% k rate last season but did end the season with some nice games. That said, he’s a GPP only type of guy. With an implied run total of 5 runs, the Cardinals are certainly in play here as they return a lot of their offense from last season other than Marcell Ozuna.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell, Kevin Newman

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, I like Flaherty quite a bit.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter

GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but you can certainly make a case for them given their implied run total.

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Seattle Mariners (+259) @ Houston Astros (-292)

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Marco Gonzales (DK – $5.9k; FD – $5.9k)

Astors – Justin Verlander (DK – $11.4k; FD – $11.2k)

Rundown:

Justin Verlander is the ace of the slate, if you can afford him, go get him. That said, I think there’s enough mid-range pitching options on this slate where you don’t absolutely need to pay up for Verlander. Marco Gonzales on the other hand, is a no go for me, he doesn’t strike anyone out and this Astros offense is elite. Speaking of this Astros offense… you’ll see them again in this article, they’re my final team in my top stacks.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: If you’re plan is to stack the Mariners, please send me a head to head invite please and thank you.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel

GPP Note: There’s a whole lot to like from the Astros here, they’re an elite stack on this slate.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) @ San Diego Padres (-130)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner (DK – $8.4k; FD – $9.0k)

Padres – Chris Paddack (DK – $8.6k; FD – $8.9k)

Rundown:

Both of these pitchers are at least a little interesting simply due to the park factor that San Diego plays. If I were to pick one it would be Chris Paddack, he showed a lot of promise last season and who knows how the Dbacks will treat Bumgarner in his first start with the team. There is some weird pricing in terms of bats, Trent Grisham at $4.8k on DK? No thanks. Eric Hosmer is dirt cheap, but I don’t love the lefty/lefty matchup. Wil Myers is a guy that’ll be in my pool however, that’s a nice price tag and should be hitting near the top of the order. The Dbacks seem priced about right, but against Paddack is pretty much a stay away for me.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, David Peralta

GPP Note: Just one-offs here, tough park and pitcher.

SDP 5-star plays: Wil Myers, Tommy Pham

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado

GPP Note: I actually don’t hate a Padres stack for GPPs and hope you get little to no ownership on them.

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San Francisco Giants (+235) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-262)

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – TBD

Dodgers – Ross Stripling (DK – $7.9k; FD – $6.6k)

Rundown:

The Dodgers were the team you wanted last night, which most people saw coming. They did get a little help from the first game raining out, but I don’t see a reason why you can’t go back to them tonight. Whoever the Giants throw out there isn’t going to be someone to fear, they’re firmly in play as a stack and probably will be most of the season with this lineup. As mentioned earlier, I have some interest in Stripling as a cheap SP2 option, meaning just one-offs from the Giants again.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: This team just isn’t very good, not a whole lot of interest in stacking it in any form.

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy

4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner

GPP Note: They won’t make my top stacks section, but I won’t be talking you off them if that’s where you want to go.

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Los Angeles Angels (+130) @ Oakland Athletics (-141)

Starting Pitchers:

Angels – Andrew Heaney (DK – $8.0k; FD – $6.7k)

Athletics – Frankie Montas (DK – $8.8k; FD – $7.6k)

Rundown:

Both teams have some firepower here, so I’m not sure that I’ll get to either of these pitchers. The Angels are a team that I only want to mini-stack, as the bottom of their order is just not great at turning over to Trout and the boys. The Athletics have a stacked lineup and would be my priority in this game, especially against a lefty. We already have a cheat sheet out for this game, go take a look, here’s a sneak peek!

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Justin Upton

GPP Note: As mentioned, the furthest I would go here is a mini-stack due to the bottom of this order.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano

GPP Note: The A’s were my GPP stack go to all of last season, we start this season off with no change! I like them as a GPP option against a lefty at home.

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Stacks of the Day:

1. Philadelphia Phillies: In no particular order, the Phillies are one of my favorite stacks on the slate. They get a matchup against a pretty bad pitcher in Sandy Alcantara and the bullpen to follow him is even worse. The Research Station shows the Marlins have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and when stacking that’s exactly what you’re looking for.
2. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox get a great matchup against a similarly bad pitching staff. Tommy Milone will kick things off for the Orioles, followed by the 28th best bullpen in the league. They lead the slate with an implied run total of 6.1 runs, so there’s no secret here, but on a big slate maybe they go under-owned if people decide to pay up for pitching.
3. Houston Astros: This one should be no surprise either, the Astros come in with an implied run total of 5.5 runs at home. It’s a shame there won’t be any fans to muffle out the banging of garbage cans in the dugout otherwise I’d be all of the Astros here… all joking aside, this is a great spot for them against a pretty bad lefty in Marco Gonzales. The thing I love about the Astros is they’re not a boom or bust team, the Research Station shows how much upside the provide with a whole lot of safety as well.

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MLB Dinger of the Day – J.D. Martinez (DK – $4.8k; FD – $3.9k)

I’d be crazy not to make JD my home run of the day. The guy absolutely destroys left-handed pitching, I mentioned these stats from the Research Station earlier, but they’re too good to ignore. First of all, he has that 100 DFSA grade (tough to beat that). But a 0.739 SLG, 0.368 ISO, and 27 HR’s against lefties last season. SIGN ME UP! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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