Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that I’ll be all over on this two-game slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is going to be the chalk on this slate, there’s no getting around that. He gets a bit of a cakewalk against a pretty bad Giants team in a pitchers ballpark in Los Angeles. The Giants come in with the lowest implied run total on the slate at 3.0 runs and really just don’t have much firepower in their lineup. Not only is Kershaw in a great spot, but he’s the second cheapest pitcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings making roster construction much easier. For cash games and even tournaments, I’ll be starting many of my lineups with Mr. Kershaw.
- Gerrit Cole – You’re going to have to pay for him, but Cole is a freak. He led the league in strikeouts last season and as we all know, strikeouts are king in MLB DFS. If we dig into the Research Station (featured below), we can see that Cole leads the way in DFSA grade among the four pitchers at 91.0. He also has the highest K-Score which could have been assumed based on last year’s numbers. He’s expensive but I don’t think you can really go wrong here, he’s an excellent pairing with Kershaw on DraftKings.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
July 17, 2020; Los Angeles, California, United States; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws during an intrasquad game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
New York Yankees (-137) @ Washington Nationals (+126)
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole (DK – $10k; FD – $11.4k)
Nationals – Max Scherzer (DK – $8.7k; FD – $10.7k)
Rundown:
Both lineups have a pretty tough matchup here, but it’s opening day, that’s to be expected. The Yankees really aren’t overly expensive considering the size of the slate and the DFS matchup. However, a stack is certainly in play on a two-game slate. Scherzer is no stranger to getting beat up a bit and is susceptible to the big inning now and then. Nationals Park gave up the fourth most runs per game last season and had similar home run numbers as Coors Field, shockingly enough. Opening day is always going to be full of aces, so finding a stack can be tough, but this Yankees offense is no joke. Using the Research Station, none of the Yankees jump off the page to you against right-handed pitching, especially in a tough matchup, but on a two-game slate their definitely cheap enough to target. The Nationals, on the other hand, are a team that I don’t see myself getting to a ton, Gerrit Cole is one of my top arms for the day and I just don’t love the idea of targeting hitters against him. They feel too expensive for the spot, but one-offs of Juan Soto, Trea Turner, or Eric Thames make sense, if Cole is going to struggle I would imagine these are the damage spots in the lineup.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Tough matchup, but this team has some pop. They’re my number two stack on the slate.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Eric Thames
GPP Note: I’m just not going to stack against Gerrit Cole, if it bites me, it bites me.
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San Francisco Giants (+253) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-284)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto (DK – $5k; FD – $6.6k)
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (DK – $7.7k; FD – $10.3k)
Rundown:
The MLB nightcap is where you’ll find your DFS value options at pitcher. As noted above, Kershaw is going to be my guy on this slate (and likely everyone else’s too). He gets a great ballpark, as Dodger Stadium plays very big which is beneficial to all pitchers. You can make a case for Johnny Cueto if you’re really looking to stack up the bats, but I don’t think this is the slate for it. If we had Coors Field or a bigger slate in general I would think a little harder on it, but I’m just not seeing it here for him. In fact, the Dodgers will be my number one stack on the slate, more to come on this below. The Giants bats are incredibly cheap and will likely be your source for some value if needed. Wilmer Flores is known as the lefty killer and will likely be hitting in the middle of this Giants lineup, he’s one guy that stands out to me. Mike Yastrzemski also had some great numbers against lefties last season as proven in the Research Station below. As far as the Dodgers go, I’ll have a bit more of a write up on them in a minute, but Justin Turner and Corey Seager have had decent success against Cueto in their careers, but again, there’s not a guy in this lineup that I don’t like.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: I think I’m just going to stick with one-offs here, maybe a mini-stack or two due to the short slate, but mostly just going with Kershaw on the other side of this one.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor, Will Smith
GPP Note: They’ll be popular, so no real GPP edge here. To be different try and stack the bottom of the order to set yourself apart a bit.
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MLB DFS Stack of the Day – Los Angeles Dodgers
As I touched on earlier, the Dodgers are the team you want to target here, below are their individual DFSA grades as represented by the Research Station. These are by far and away the highest amongst the four teams on the slate.
All that said, they will be popular so I’m not exactly breaking ground here, so how can we get different here? It will be tough on such a short slate, but I think if we avoid the traditional 1-3-4-5 (or something similar) stack we can get a bit of an edge on the other Dodger stackers. One thing I like to do is include the team’s catcher as part of my stack, catcher is often a tough position, so why not loop them in with the rest of the bats of a team that I think is going to crush. If we assume Will Smith is going to hit 8 or 9, that gives us a starting point. From there we can go two ways, we can make a wrap-around stack and go 8/9-1-2-3-4 (or something with the top of the order with your 9 spot). Or you can stack the bottom of the lineup with a small piece of the top, something like 6-7-8/9-1-2, depending on who is hitting where in the order. Overall, you’re going to want to get different with this stack in tournaments to set yourself apart and I think these are some solid ways to do so.
MLB Dong of the Day – Joc Pederson (DK – $4.5k; FD – $2.8k)
When home run hunting I love looking at a player’s ISO which measures a player’s raw power against a certain candidness of the pitcher. Joc had a team-high .308 ISO against righties last season including a 45% hard-hit rate. His team-high 97.4 DFSA grade is just a cherry on top. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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