(FREE!) 2020 MLB Hitting Primer For Your Daily Fantasy Sports Contests - Part 2 of 2

Welcome! My name is mutt18 and I’ll be your guru up the mountain that is MLB DFS. I’m super excited that MLB will be back this year, despite only a 60 game season. I’m grateful you are choosing to read this and hope it takes your DFS game to the next level. In this second of 2 parts, I’ll be diving into how to find and select hitters that you want to target in your DFS contests. I’ll first dive into some definitions of certain stats/numbers I look at and what they mean, and then I’ll tell you how to put them all together to select your hitting targets. Alright…enough chit-chat, let’s start to dig in here!

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Hitting Metrics – Types and What They Mean

Here I’m going to dig into some common items that I look at when selecting a guy I’m going to target for hitters on any given night, and give you some background information on what those mean and how we can apply them. For each section I’m going to give you: the definition, the why (as in why it is important) and how to apply it when selecting hitters to target for your daily fantasy contests. I’m going to start with a few that should be familiar, and we’ll work our way down to the more complex ones, now let’s get into it!

Batting Average

Definition: Anyone who understands baseball knows this one, batting average is the average performance of a batter, expressed as a ratio of a batter’s safe hits per official times at bat.

Why: Batting average is a universal stats that measures a hitter’s success. .300 or above is considered elite, and you’re going to want to target guys with higher batting averages, simply because they are going to get more hits and that means more fantasy points.

How To Apply It: Many people will start with this stat, because it is so universal. It is a classic stat and should be looked at and taken into account for sure, but it is one of the more basic ones, and we’re going to dig deeper here.

OBP (On Base Percentage)

Definition: This one is pretty self-explanatory, it is the rate at which a batter gets on base, it included hit by pitches and walks in addition to hits.

Why: Generally a player’s OBP will be better than their batting average, as it incorporates walks and hit by pitches, whereas a batting average only includes hits. Considering you get fantasy points for walks and hit by pitches, the higher an OBP the more likely a hitter is going to have a positive point day in the fantasy point department.

How To Apply It: OBP is a nice stat to start out with, especially when you are looking for hitters that have a safer floor (the higher the floor, the less likely they are to bust). Here’s what you want to look for:

Elite = 0.390 or above

Great = 0.370 or above

Average = 0.320 or above

Below Average = 0.310 or below

Bad = .0290 or below

Slugging Percentage

Definition: Slugging percentage represents the total number of bases a player records per at-bat. Unlike on-base percentage, slugging percentage deals only with hits and does not include walks and hit-by-pitches.

Why: Slugging percentage is an older statistic, but it still holds some value as the higher a slugging percentage the more bases a player is achieving per at bat. Therefore the higher the slugging percentage the more extra-base hits and home runs they are hitting.

How To Apply It: Slugging percentage is much like batting average, as it is an old statistic but still provides value, especially when looking at a player’s ability to hit for extra-base hits. It is just another statistic to look at in deciding who you want to pick for your hitters, but it isn’t all encompassing.

OPS (On Base Plus Slugging)

Definition: This one is also pretty self-explanatory, the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and their slugging percentage combined is their OPS.

Why: A player’s OPS shows their ability to both get on base, and their ability to hit for extra bases, thus the higher an OPS the higher a hitter’s ceiling can be as extra-base hits count for more points and if there are other guys on base it leads to additional RBI opportunities as well.

How To Apply It: Here’s what you want to look for when it comes to OPS:

Elite = 1.000 or above

Great = 0.800 or above

Average = 0.710 or above

Below Average = 0.670 or below

Bad = 0.570 or below

Again this isn’t an all-encompassing stat but just another piece of the puzzle that we use to build the puzzle that is a daily fantasy lineup.

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)

Definition: BABIP measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit, however it does exclude home runs. There are 3 main factors that go into BABIP, defense, luck, and talent.

Why: BABIP can be a very telling stat as it does give us an idea of how a batter’s contact quality is. It can also tell us if a hitter is getting a bit lucky, especially if you see big gaps in a hitter’s career BABIP average and they’re current BABIP. For example if a hitters career BABIP is .275 and they are currently carrying a .350 BABIP over the past 2 weeks, that is a likely indicator that they are due for some regression at the plate as it is likely not sustainable unless the hitter has drastically improved their hitting approach (which typically doesn’t happen over the course of one season).

How To Apply It: I kind of explained it a bit, but BABIP can tell us if a hitter is making quality contact and can be a solid predictor if a hitter is due for some positive regression, or regression to the mean. If a hitter’s BABIP is way below their career average, it tells us that they’ve been a bit unlucky and are due for some positive regression which can lead to big days at the plate. Same goes for the example of regression that I mentioned in the Why section.

wOBA (Weighted On Base Average)

Definition: wOBA combines all aspects of hitting and puts it into one number that shows a hitters true run value. It combines walks, hit by pitch, singles, doubles, triples and HRs all into one easy to use statistic.

Why: wOBA and OPS are kind of similar, but wOBA allows you to calculate a certain hitters actual run value and how they contribute to scoring runs compared to the rest of their peers in the MLB.

How To Apply It: Since wOBA combines almost all aspects of hitting, it is a very useful statistic to see how “good” a hitter is overall when it comes to scoring runs (which in turns gets you fantasy points). Here’s what to look for:

Elite = .400 or above

Great = .340 or above

Average = .320 or above

Below Average = .310 or below

Bad = .290 or below

Hard Hit Rate (Hard%)

Definition: A ‘hard-hit ball’ as one hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, and a player’s “hard-hit rate” is simply showing the percentage of batted balls that were hit at 95 mph or more. It is broken down into 3 categories, Soft%, Med%, and Hard%.

Why: This one is pretty simple overall, the higher a hitter’s hard hit rate, the more hard (solid) contact they are making. The harder a ball is hit, depending on the launch angle, the more likely it is to become a hit or a home run, which = big time fantasy points!

How To Apply It: Generally you are going to want to target guys that are hitting the ball hard. Elite is around 40%. You can also find a player who is due for a breakout using this statistic as well, by comparing it to their BABIP. If you can find that a hitter’s BABIP is lower than league average, but they are making hard contact 40+% of the time then they’ve been a bit unlucky and due for some positive regression, and maybe just not in the hit column, but in the HR column as well. Finding an edge like this can really propel you forward in GPPs as we this is an identifiable statistic that we can use to our advantage.

ISO (Isolated Power)

Definition: ISO is my personal favorite statistic to look at when it comes to hitters. ISO is a measure of a hitter’s power and how often they hit for extra bases, and in daily fantasy, more bases and HR’s = more fantasy points! ISO factors in double, triples, and HRs divided by a hitter’s ABs.

Why: Pretty self-explanatory as I stated above, ISO factors in doubles, triples, and HRs. More bases = more fantasy points and higher ceilings for a hitter’s daily fantasy value.

How To Apply It: In general, the most fantasy points comes from extra base hits, particularly home runs, so we are going to want to target guys that hit for extra bases as they tend to provide more fantasy points, which means, more monies in our pockets. Here’s a table of what to look for:

Elite = 0.250 and above

Great = 0.200 and above

Average = 0.140 and above

Below Average = 0.120 and below

Bad = 0.100 and below

wRC and wRC+

Definition: Measures a hitter’s value based on a cumulative statistic and includes park factors into their total production into singular separate statistics.

Why: wRC measure’s a hitter’s value that credits them for total production, while wRC+ weighs each offensive action and adds in league average and park effects.

How To Apply It: It is easy to measure a player’s wRC+ because the league average is 100. So if a player’s wRC+ is 120 then you can assume that they are performing 20% above the average. However, you do have to keep in mind you do have to look at plate appearances here as well. As a hitter with a 120 wRC+ with only 100 at bats isn’t as good as a player with that same wRC+ who has 250 at bats. Here’s a breakdown of what to look for:

 To Measure wRC:

Elite = 105 and above

Great = 90 and above

Average = 65 and above

Below Average = 60 and below

Bad = 50 and below

To measure wRC+:

Elite = 160 and above

Great = 140 and above

Average = 100 and above

Below Average = 80 and below

Bad = 75 and below

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Putting It All Together

All of these statistics are available in our MLB Research Station and now I’ll talk about putting all of this information together into choosing your hitting targets when it comes to MLB DFS. I’ll break it down into how I select targets for GPPs and then for CASH games. I tend to weigh some of the stuff I mentioned above in different ways depending on which type of lineup I am building.

GPP Targets:

Again, not much surprise when it comes to GPP targets, but you’re going to want to target guys that have big time power but also less of a floor, so kind of like your all-or-nothing type guys that can hit multiple HRs in a game, or go 0-4 with 4K’s (see Chris Davis when he actually used to hit HRs as a prime example of a perfect GPP bat).

When looking for hitters the stat I favor most, especially in GPPs, is ISO. I’ve illustrated what that is and how to apply it above, so I won’t bore you to death on that. But a hitter that has a high ISO against a certain handed pitcher (RHP/LHP) are really the guys we want to target. Generally, you want to look at a hitter’s splits (how they fare vs. LHPs and RHPs) to determine which they are better against. In most cases, but not all, a hitter generally is better against pitchers that throw from the opposite side they bat from. In plain English, you’re usually going to want left-handed batters facing right-handed pitchers, and right-handed batters facing left-handed pitchers. However, you also have what’s known as a reverse-splits hitter, where a hitter actually is better against pitchers that throw from the same side that they bat (such as a RHB vs RHP). In order to find those reverse-splits guys, you can take advantage of our Research Station, which has every stat you need right under one application.

Another thing to look for in hitters when it comes to GPPs, is guys that can get on base a lot (have high OBPs) and can steal bases as those guys tend to have higher ceilings, especially compared to hitters who just have high batting averages. For example, an above-average hitter that doesn’t hit for much power can go 2-4 and get you 6 points on FanDuel, whereas, you can also find a guy that has some serious speed, can go 1-3, steal a base and score a run and get you 12.2 points. Plus, if that guy with speed also hits a HR and steals a base, you’re looking at a minimum of 21 points on FanDuel.

Lastly, when it comes to GPPs, I also like to look at Ownership Percentage, another feature we have here at DFS Army that we have Ownership Projections in both our Research Station and our Domination Station. What I like to do is find those diamonds in the rough, typically that will have less than 8% ownership that fit in nicely with the rest of the process I outlined above. Over my years of DFS experience I have found that if a hitter has 8% ownership or less, it can really vault you ahead in GPPs as most people will be chasing the heavy favorites/guys that are more consistent.

Cash Targets

When it comes to cash games, the process is very different. In cash games, you’re going to want to try and find hitters that have solid floors. The single most important stat with hitters is likely going to be wOBA and OBP. You will want to target guys that have above average wOBA’s and high OBP as it means they get on base, and on FanDuel, getting on base gets you 3 points. If a guy has a high OBP and hits for power that just makes it that much better for cash games as it boosts their ceiling. The ideal combination you want is a high floor/high ceiling hitter…however, those are often rare and likely take up a good chunk of your salary. You will likely need to fill in your lineup with a few value hitters that are in above average spots/guys that are filling in when the usual starter gets a day off.

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