Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
It looks like deGrom will be our chalk cash pitcher of the day today, and for good reason. He leads the way today in every category and is a massive -230 Vegas favorite. If you’re playing cash on DraftKings, you might have to pay up a bit for your SP2 (Hendricks or Geinke, for example).
For GPP purposes we have several decent options with some nice KSCOREs, such as Sandoval, Paxton, Nola, and Bieber.
Bumgarner is an interesting option as well. More on him later!
Offenses to target
Both New York teams get the best carnage ratings on the day, but we have quite a few pitchers with poor SIERA numbers and high implied totals, so there are some other ones to consider as well.
As always, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where we’re leaning today for pitchers and offenses!
Full Count Breakdown
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with the Braves and Phillies, where we’ll have the mostly tried and true Nola hosting the up-and-down Foltynewicz. Collectively, the Braves have quite a bit of BvP against Nola, so right away we have a decent stack to consider for GPP (both sides, really, since Folty is no stranger to having a bad outing here and there).
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman/Donaldson (BvP), Acuna, Albies
GPP note – Lots of BvP here, so don’t be afraid to attack Nola with some big contrarian stacks
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper (BvP), Dickerson, Hoskins
GPP note – Attacking Folty is hit or miss, but when he has a bad game, it’s hard for the flood gates to close up. If you go here, go with big stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
Our cash pitcher is up next, as deGrom will host Kelly’s 7.79 carnage and the Diamondbacks. The Mets are in a good spot to do some more damage here, as they’ve been doing, so look to them for another good stack option.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte
GPP note – Tough matchup against deGrom and no BvP to fall back on. Contrarian stacks only
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto, Cano, Alonso
GPP note – Best carnage rating on the board, so be sure to grab a few stacks here. The lefties are in a fantastic spot
Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins
The Brewers travel to Miami for our next game, as Yelich and a bunch of lefties will face off against Dugger and his poor numbers against left-handed batters (.418 xwOBA / .182 ISO). Needless to say, that’s a great spot to attack, and I don’t think their sub-5 implied total does them justice here.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Grandal, Thames
GPP note – Some big lefty stacks, led by Yelich, are a solid way to go here to attack Dugger
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker (some BvP), Diaz
GPP note – There’s not much to love here, but Walker does have some BvP that could be useful
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
If you like BvP, then you’ll love this next game! There’s a ton of it on both sides, and knowing how much these teams dislike each other, I expect some more fireworks here. Even though each team is facing decent pitching, I wouldn’t be afraid to grab some shares of this one, even just in GPP. One-offs to full game stacks, there’s something for everybody here.
Yankees 5 star plays – LeMahieu, Sanchez (BvP)
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit/Torres/Encarnacion (BvP)
GPP note – When Rodriguez has a bad game, they get really bad, so don’t be afraid to throw some big stacks against him
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts/Martinez (BvP), Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – Paxton isn’t exactly an easy target, but he’s got a tough task ahead of him with these guys, so big stacks are still in play in GPP
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Fiers will travel to Houston to take on one of his old teams, where he’ll meet Greinke and the scorching hot Astros. Both are quality pitchers, but once again, there’s a fair amount of BvP on both sides of this one. While I don’t think big stacks will work quite as well here as the previous game, they’re still in play, but you can also consider one-offs and mini-stacks if you don’t want to go all in. Either way, be it the offenses or pitchers, I think we’ll see some healthy fantasy production in this one.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Semien/Davis (BvP), Olson
GPP note – Tough matchup against Greinke, but there are a few targets we could still look at (mostly the three listed above)
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley (BvP), Altuve/Springer, Bregman, Alvarez
GPP note – The lefties are the main targets here, but with how hot they’ve been, you can’t really go wrong with any of them
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Fransico Giants
There’s been a trend with Bumgarner this year; when he has a bad outing, he tends to come back with several good ones, then he repeats that cycle. Well, his last start was a dud, so look for him to have a game here (Vegas seems to be on his side, too). As for Williams, he has some bad wOBA/SIERA numbers, so some Giants stacks might not be a bad choice if you want to be a little different.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Marte, Newman
GPP note – Potentially tough matchup against Bumgarner, so this might not be the stack to go with today
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Yastrzemski, Vogt
GPP note – Williams is a good target to attack and the Giants are rarely chalky, so you could get some good leverage here
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels
We get another high-ceiling pitcher next, as Bieber and the Indians will take on Sandoval and the Angels. Interestingly, Sandoval has a pretty nice carnage rating, so he could make an interesting budget GPP option. Actually, this entire game just screams GPP option, as I don’t really think we’ll need any of it for our cash games.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Mercado
GPP note – Bad matchup from a carnage perspective, so going somewhere else might be the better call today
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Ohtani, Calhoun (BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup against Bieber, so temper expectations with any Angels stacks you may run
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game features Hendricks and Quantrill squaring off at Petco Park. With as bad as the Padres have been, especially against right-handed pitchers, this is a great spot for Hendricks and his game manager style, so he looks to be an option in all formats. Quantrill is tending to the bad and has started to allow a lot more hits, so this could also be a good spot for the Cubs’ offense to do some damage.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber
GPP note – With all the hits that Quantrill has started to allow, this could be a good spot to help the Cubs wake up a bit and do some damage. Their implied total should keep their ownership down, too!
Padres 5 star plays –
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Renfroe (BvP), Hedges (some BvP)
GPP note – Frankly, they’ve sucked, and Hendricks is the kind of pitcher they would rather not face. Stacking here might not do much for you
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
